So, in the midst of keeping track of the TOTALLY AWESOME HURRAY HURRAH HUZZOO MIZZOU! Cotton Bowl win over Oklahoma State, I was checking the latest odds/line on this weekend's games when I noticed a rather strange thing: there was no line listed on my app for the Chiefs vs Colts game. Wondering if perhaps the odds had been simply left off for all games, I checked the other three games and sure enough, both the spread and the over/under was listed ... for all except the game that interests me the most. Now, having heard yesterday that the original spread of 2.5 had shifted down to 1-1.5 due to heavy betting on the Chiefs, I looked a bit closer, which led me to ...
The Odds Shark
So, checking the various sites/links provided by the nice folks at the Odds Shark, I discovered some fairly fascinating things. First, the over/under seems to be a stable 46 across the board. Fair enough and we all know what that is. The spread, which started out at Indy -2.5 has changed, in favor of the Chiefs. Why? Because money is rolling in on the Chiefs, and big money at that. The spread is now 1 and in some places 0 and THAT means this game is a virtual "pick'em" in the eyes of everyone concerned, which means the standard 3 point edge for home field advantage counts not one bit in the eyes of late bettors. The question is: WHY? What do the big money gamblers know that the rest of us don't? Now, logically there can really be only one of two things happening, therefore I'll list three things just to obfuscate the issue.
- Bettors are hearing something good about the Chiefs
- Bettors are hearing something bad about the Colts
Bettors are waiting til the last minute to place huge bets
Now, let's examine these. What new and awesome thing could anyone with inside information possibly hear and know about the Chiefs that is positive news and makes the Chiefs more attractive to bet hugemongous sums of money on? Nothing that I know of ... do you? Did Jamaal Charles grow a pair of wings that allows him to fly? That would be a sudden shift of good fortune that would make most people think the Chiefs have a decided advantage. Trouble is, I haven't heard anything astounding about the Chiefs that would suddenly change the betting habits of billionaires.
Now let's consider the opposite: Did Andrew Luck send a text to his sister telling her that he has a painful hangnail and might not be able to play tomorrow? No, I didn't think so either ... hmmm, maybe Robert Mathis broke his leg from the excitement of being named to the All Pro Team? Nah, he's too classy for that. So what, then?
Back to the Odds Shark. The Moneyline. Each site lists current moneyline odds. The starting point or opening linewas KC +123 IND -137 ... meaning, if you bet on the Colts you put up $137 to win $100, and if you bet on the Chiefs you put up $100 to win $123. Current moneylines are as follows: 5Dimes KC -103 IND -107 TopBet KC -110 IND -110 BetOnline KC +100 IND -120 GT Bets KC 0 IND -120 SportBet KC +115 IND -129 Bovada (blank)
Really? Bovada, where's the moneyline? And can someone PLEASE explain that GT Bets to me, because I'm lost ... but it LOOKS like you can wager $0 on the Chiefs and win $100 if they win the game ... you know, that's a bet I'd love to make (and win, of course!) ... the trend has been that those two moneylines are getting closer together, meaning more people are betting on the Chiefs to win ... and the spread is now 0 points on half of the sites listed above. Think about that for a minute: counting the "home field advantage" the Chiefs are now favored to win, essentially. Makes me feel so good, but what makes these very, very wealthy individuals think that NOW? Last minute gift shopping? Maybe, but I doubt it ...
Thus far the only consensus bets are SF -2.5, KC-IND over and SD-CIN over ... but the vanishing moneyline remains a mystery: why? Those of you you understand all of this, please ... a huge favor? Explain why this is happening for the restt of us, and remember to go slowly ... otherwise it'll confuse my already addled old brain.
Playoffs ... you know, that STILL sounds good! Maybe someone was right earlier this season ... maybe, just maybe, this is the year the Chiefs win that elusive playoff game. Maybe this time it really IS different.