From the FanPosts -Joel
Most AP readers know that the opening line on Chiefs at Colts Saturday had Indy favored by 2.5 points. That line has now dropped to Indy -1 (favored by 1 point) at most of the Las Vegas sports books and to a Pick 'Em with the offshore books. The public money has followed the line move, with about 55% of the point spread bets going for the Chiefs.
Vegas bookmakers tend to open with what they consider to be fair lines. They don't skew the numbers to take advantage of public sentiment b/c they know the sharp bettors and syndicates will kill them. Even so, this is a big line move with more than 24 hours before the game, and it says that the early money liked the opportunity presented by getting the Chiefs and 2.5 points. These bettors must believe that the probability of a Chiefs win or a very narrow Colt victory is better than 55%. Since early money is usually sharp money, Chiefs fans can take comfort in knowing that their hopes for a win are backed up by the facts (as seen by the bettors, at least).
On the other hand, it is possible that that some large betting groups are backing the Chiefs in a small way now in order to make a bigger play on game day. If the line moves back towards Indy -2.5, then we'll probably know that this was the case.
Fortunately, trend queries about playoff point spreads show that home teams favored by 1 to 2.5 points have a 13-12 record since 1978, which is how far back my data goes. It also says something that of all the playoff games played since then (about 330 games) only 25 have been played with such a small home advantage. In other words, history also shows that the Chiefs have a pretty good chance against the Colts.
None of this info means the Chiefs are clearly the better team or that they will win on Saturday. Obviously, they'll have to play better than they did 2 weeks ago, but I'm pretty sure they know that already.