I talked with Danny Parkins and Carrington Harrison on 610 Sports on Tuesday about our five keys to victory for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Indianapolis Colts on Wild Card weekend. One of those keys is arguably the most important thing each week -- turnovers.
The Chiefs lost the last time these two teams played, 23-7. That was their biggest loss of the season, making it an outlier not only on the final score but also on turnovers. The Chiefs turned it over four times in that game.
"They did a good job of getting us a few times," Andy Reid said on Tuesday of the Chiefs four turnovers in the last game. "And then obviously, you're striving to create turnovers on the other side. That's a challenge I think both ways - both offensively and defensively. They're efficient with the ball, they don't have a lot of penalties that are called against them and they don't turn the ball over much. That's this time of the year, you've got to eliminate mistakes. Mistakes get magnified in the playoffs."
Indeed, mistakes get magnified. You're on the biggest stage and you're the only game on. One mistake and everyone is talking. What Chiefs fans also know is that mistakes matter in every game. Kansas City often competes and they often win when they don't turn it over.
On the other side, how much can the Chiefs rely on the Colts making a mistake? I'm not sure that you can. Andrew Luck has never thrown a pick against the Chiefs in two career starts. They don't turn it over very often. While the Chiefs are No. 1 in the AFC in turnover ratio, the Colts are No. 2. The Chiefs probably can't expect turnovers in this game.
The good thing is that the Colts are probably saying the same thing about the Chiefs. Indy won by just 16 points last time despite the Chiefs turning it over four freakin' times. Is there any chance in hell the Chiefs are turning it over four times again? No there is not (OK, yes, there is but I wanted to be dramatic).
Just on turnovers alone, I expect this game to be much, much closer. The Chiefs aren't turning it over four times and they're not getting blown out when they protect the football.