Greetings fans of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs! Back again for our Week 2 installment of The Opening Line. This week the Dallas Cowboys (1-0) visit the Chiefs in a non-conference battle that marks the home opener of the 2013 season. Each week we take a look at what the line is out of Vegas and the offshore outlets and we take a look at some relevant trends regarding the matchup. Let's take a look at this week's opponent!
The Dallas Cowboys enter Arrowhead fresh off of their Sunday night victory over the New York Giants. Thanks to six turnovers by the Giants, the Cowboys were able to hold them off by a score of 36-31. They return to Arrowhead for the first time since 2009, when they defeated the Chiefs in OT by a score of 26-20. As a sidenote, that was my first ever Arrowhead game, and after dealing with Cowboys fans for three hours I vowed to not ever root for them again. But back to the present, let's see how the folks out in Vegas see this matchup.
The line opened differently in a few places, but the most widely available opener for this game has the Chiefs as 2.5 point favorites in this contest. This may surprise some, but I think this is a good line. The over/under has been set at 46.5. At the time of this writing, only 835 wagers have been placed on this game via online books and 93% of the bets have been on Dallas. The good news? The line hasn't moved due to this early action. Any number of factors could be at play, but the "sharp" bettors typically lay good money early in the week. And if the large percentage of Dallas backers hasn't moved the line, it may be that they 7% is laying a good chunk of money to keep it where it is. I do suspect that the public will continue to play Dallas and we will get a line closer to a "Pick" by gametime. If I were a gambling man (I am), and I liked the Chiefs in this spot (I do), I would wait for the line to move a little by gameday and take it at a better number (I will). Let's see if there are any relevant trends for this upcoming matchup!
Just to remind you, looking only at trends will not help you, but sometimes they can be of use. Last week, all signs pointed to the UNDER. And wouldn't you know it? The under hit.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
- Dallas is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 game
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 15 games at home
- Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
- Dallas is 2-8 ATS in it's last ten games off a division game
Nothing earth shattering there. Slight lean to the under, but like I said with trends, you could find plenty that sway you to the over as well. Overall, I think this is a game the Chiefs should and will win. If you agree, then wait it out like I suggested. If you like Dallas in this spot, I would take it now because the line probably won't get to 3 or more Well, there you have it. Another week down and it's nice to see the Chiefs getting a little respect out west. Let's have a good week. Sound off in the comments and thanks for reading this week's edition of The Opening Line.