From the FanPosts -Joel
Greetings fans of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs! After another impressive win last Thursday against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs return home for a matchup with the 0-3 New York Giants. The Giants, fresh off their humiliating defeat against the Carolina Panthers, head to Arrowhead to try and halt a terrible start to their season.
This is quite an interesting matchup. Before we look at the odds, it is important to remember one of the most basic tenets of handicapping football games: Never overreact to the previous week's results. No matter how bad a team plays in a given week, you must keep that out of how you view the upcoming game. In the NFL, teams can rebound very quickly and especially a team with several veterans from Super Bowl Champion teams. Another thing to be careful of is using what we call the transitive property to pick football games (A = B, B = C, A = C). In other words, beware of using logic like, "Dallas beat the Giants, and we beat Dallas, therefore we should beat the Giants." Just some advice before approaching this game the wrong way.
This line has been interesting thus far. Late last week, some books released lines that you could put limited wagers on. At that time, the Chiefs were favored by 4 (which is an interesting turn from when Cantor Gaming released their lines in July and had the Giants as a 1.5 point favorite in this game). As the week went on, the number went down to 3.5 but after gameday on Sunday the line was as high as 6 in some places. This line was available for all of about ten minutes as Giants backers hammered this line. Thus, when most outlets released their opening lines with unlimited wagering, the opener was KC favored by 4.5 with a total of 45.5. Since then, there has been some movement and the most widely available line is Kansas City favored by 4 and the total is resting at 44. At the time of this writing, almost 3000 online wagers have been processed and the Chiefs are getting 80% of the action. Despite this, the line has moved toward the Giants a bit. As we have seen in our first few weeks, this could mean a few things, namely that some large money is coming in on the New York side. 56% of the action on the total is on the under and that has moved it a whole 1.5 points. I see this being a low scoring game myself, so that isn't too surprising.
In my opinion (and an opinion shared by others I have spoken to), you are going to see the sharp bettors back the Giants this week. Why? Because there is still the prevailing opinion that the Giants cannot POSSIBLY be this bad and at some point are going to wake up and play a complete game. It's called gambling for a reason, and I think a lot of people will be hitting the Giants this week because of this reason. (Also mixed in is the fact that some are still not sold on the Chiefs either). Personally? I probably will not play this game. The Chiefs are the better team right now clearly, but I want to see how this line moves during the week before making any decisions.
Let's see some relevant recent trends regarding this matchup. I will say it every week, but do not rely only on trends when betting. We have more than usual this week.
- Giants are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
- Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
- Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Giants are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
- Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
- Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Giants last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-2 in Giants last 12 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Giants last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Giants last 11 games in Week 4.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 10-1 in Chiefs last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Chiefs last 8 games in Week 4.
- Under is 22-5-1 in Chiefs last 28 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in September.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a ATS win.
If looking at the trends, the under does look tempting. But whenever looking at the past, you must remember that teams have changed, and in some cases schemes and philosophies. I still think the under is a decent play though. I'll be keeping an eye on the line moves this week and if there is anything noteworthy, I'll toss up a fanshot with some information. I hope everyone continues to enjoy this weekly article and I hope you all have a good week. Let's get ready to make some noise at Arrowhead this weekend and make life miserable for the Giants! Thanks for reading another edition of The Opening Line.