Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Opening Line

Justin K. Aller

From the FanPosts -Joel

Greetings AP. For the 2013 season, I have decided to bring back a feature I did for the 2011 season in which I analyze the Vegas line for the upcoming game every Monday. Then, on Sunday, we will take a look at how the line has moved and where the money is being wagered.

Here are some from the past to refresh your memory: The Opening Line. The Closing Line

Well here we are. After what seems like an eternity, our beloved Kansas City Chiefs will step on the field for a game that counts. On opening day the Chiefs head to Jacksonville to square off with the Jaguars in a battle of two of the NFL's worst teams during the 2012 season. A new season brings new expectations for both teams. To rehash all of ours would be repetitive, but for the Jaguars and their new coach Gus Bradley, 2013 is an opportunity to make some improvements to a team that has been below average for some time now. Led by Mizzou alum Blaine Gabbert and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags (like the Chiefs) are trying to improve on a 2 win campaign. While they should win a few games this year, a drastic improvement is not generally expected from the masses or Vegas.

Speaking of how Vegas views the Jaguars, their Over/Under for season wins sits currently at 5.5. The over will net you +120 (wager 100, win 120) and the under -140 (wager 140, win 100). I am not one to read too deeply into the season win totals, but clearly the odds are in favor of them not reaching the 6 win mark.

This brings us to our Week 1 contest. Week 1 is obviously a little different than the usual football week in that the line has been out for months. When we first saw the line, the Chiefs were listed as 3 point favorites (a couple opened at 2.5) on the road and the total was set at 40.5. For a while it stayed at 3, but of late it moved to 3.5 and even 4 in some places. Right now, the most widely available line has the Chiefs as 3.5 point favorites and the total is set 41.

According to the site, there have already been about 7500 wagers on this game, with 80% of the action on the Chiefs. It's not always a good thing to be a large public play, but in this case it's a little different. Most people wagering well ahead of time are not your average "square" (condescending term for a betting novice) bettors. We are seeing action from those who saw value early in the line and have moved it slightly. From what I am told though, there is some good money coming in on Jacksonville as well, which is keeping the line from going up to 4 and beyond. Overall I think this is a solid line. This line means the Chiefs are about a TD favorite and as much as a double digit favorite at home, which is just about right without getting too crazy.

Let's take a look at some trends going into this matchup. The danger with trends is that for every positive one, there are several that could contradict it. Also, trends that go too far back are sometimes weaker because obviously rosters are always changing. Nonetheless, let's see what we have:

  • Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
  •   Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  •   Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  •   Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  •   Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
  •   Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
  •  Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  •  Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games.
  •  Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games in September.
  •  Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games on grass.

Trust me (and those who wager can attest), there are hundreds more of these, but each week I'll try to give you the most pertinent ones.

Well, there you have it for Week 1. I look forward to doing this each week and giving you a look at what Vegas and the public have to say about all of our matchups. Have a great week and until next time, this has been The Opening Line.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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