FanPost

Putting Lipstick on a Pig - What are we bringing to 2013? Stat Driven Analysis on AP heroes

AP is a fan site, full of fans. KC Chiefs fans. Most of us want to believe that every team has the same chance of winning, and more importantly, that it will be done by people we have name association with. For instance, Bowe instantly brings up some sort of quality association at WR, for better or worse.

This time last year, we believed that a last place offense would shoot up the ranks by bringing back two players that were returning off ACL injuries, and a new Offensive Coordinator under a defensive minded HC. History shows how flat that fell. In 2012 we had the worst scoring offense in the league. We also had the most turnovers by an offense.

It's easy to compartmentalize this all and say it was Brady and Cassel. 11676766-large_medium

via media.silive.com

Putting in an experienced, decent (but not great) QB is going to change all of this single handedly. But let's spend a few minutes looking at how much each remaining star contributed to last year's disaster.

Disclaimer: Some of these stats do not put our players in a great light. That doesn't mean I don't like them, or I don't like the Chiefs.

However, I don't believe in the thought that resources are all 'good' or 'bad' but probably somewhere a lot closer to the middle than two opposing sides would admit. These weaknesses will show up at some point this year, so it's better to be prepared for them.

Let's dig in:

Dwayne Bowe:

TDs

Dwayne Bowe only had two games with a score in 2012. Two games for a player that will now take 10% of our salary cap is quite a deal.

In fact, Bowe didn't score a touchdown after Sept of 2012. He fell off the map after that.

Dwaynebowedrop_medium

via kcsportsninja.com

More importantly, the only games Bowe scored in last year were blowout losses.

The story gets worse. In the two games that Bowe scored a TD, the Chiefs were down by a sum of 69-13. They were both in the fourth quarter when the other team was already thinking about ice cream after the game.

I believe that indicates some motivational issues- which for 10m+ a year, you would expect a star to bring their own motivation regardless of the state of the team at that point.

Yards

Bowe has 2.1 yards receiving per route run. That ranks him for 33rd of all WRs in '12. Anecdotally, Bowe is the exclusive lock-on-target for bad QBs. That makes this stat that much more of a thorn for Bowes '12 effort.

The two games mentioned above are the only two games that Bowe had a significant yardage effort of over 100 yards per game. In fact, has 8 played games without 70 yards, all 8 of those adding up to 363 yards and no TDs.

Jamaal Charles:

It's well known that JC was left off the top 100 list this year. We hemmed, we hawwed.

But how consistent is JC? If we want to win 10 games this year, is it possible that it's on Jamaal's back? Let's look at some stats.

Yards

JC had 6 games in '12 that averaged 24 yds/g. That's 24 total yards per game. He averaged 2.1 yards a rush during those 6 games.

It's also well known that JC ran for 1,500 yards last year. That's a healthy chunk of yards. However, 42% of those yards came from plays of 20 yards or more. That leaves a much smaller amount of first downs that help move offenses forward and create momentum.

TDs

In the 9 games that JC didn't have a 20 yard rush, he averaged 3.9 yards a rush, 530 total yards and 1 TD.

Receiving

Jamaal is being propped up as a big receiving threat this year. However, his drop rate was over 10% last year and 36th in the league among running backs only for that stat. As a comparison to McCoy, his drop rate was half that, putting him at 13th.

In yards per route run, he had 1.13 yards per route run, putting him at 30th among RBs. For a team that did a lot of dump offs- I'm not sure JC had the right skills once he is in the pass space to really work this.

JC has physical talent to be a good receiving RB, but is missing vital experience in this area to make an immediate, consistent threat.

Tony Moeaki

Tony receives a lot of love. This is probably one player I actually think is bad (Instead of the others, who I'm just trying to show that they were a major part of a very bad offense last year, Cassel/Brady aside.)

Receiving

1/2 of all the games that TMo played last year add up to 88 total yards. That's not per game, that's 88 yards accumulated across 1/2 the games he was in (In case you're wondering, he played all 16 games). TMo had 1.12 Yards per route run, meaning that some very noodle armed QBs couldn't make much out of their TE last year.

The Offensive Line

KC OL gave up 175 QB pressures (sacks+hurries+hits) last year. That number alone isn't that bad. That puts KC in 11th in pressures allowed. However, we passed a lot less than other teams last year. Add a weighted average to that number and now the OL is 22nd in the league at pass protection. 27% of every passing down the Chiefs gave up a pressure to the QB.

Cutblock2_crop_exact_medium

via img.bleacherreport.net

10 million dollar man Branden Albert taking the term 'Laying down a block' a bit too literally. Charles often succeeded in lieu of some seriously poor blocking on the left side last year.

On the rushing front, JC had his best rushing stats when going around Lilja and Winston.

Eric Berry

Eric Berry probably deserves his own story. He had a very bad 2012 year. Don't buy the hype that there is some upside- EB has not achieved close to his potential yet as a Chief.

Last year EB gave up 1.04 yards to his coverage assignment per snap. That's the third highest in the NFL. That means for every time Eric Berry covered someone, that route runner gains 1.04 yards.

What does that stat mean? It's not a normal household stat. I'll explain what's driving it.

Every 11 times Eric Berry was in primary coverage (shadowing a TE, RB, whatever his assignment was, doesn't necessarily mean just man coverages) his assignment caught a pass.

512x_medium

via binaryapi.ap.org

Eric Berry a not quite getting his positioning correct

Eric Berry is dead last in this stat. There wasn't a Safety worse in the league at having passes completed to their assignments.

Eric Berry also had a 5-1 TD/INT ratio. In this case, that ratio is bad. There was only one safety worse in the league. The top 50 Safeties averaged just over a 1/1 ratio. EB was bombed on last year.

Conclusion:

The Good

It's going to be a fun year to watch the Chiefs. But sometimes we give players a better memory of past experience than they deserve. JC isn't going to carry the Chiefs this year alone. He's a physical freak, that is mind blowing when at top speed. Noone in the NFL can always be 100%, and Charles' up and down season last year indicates just that.

Either is Bowe. Bowe is going to have moments where he fails at terrible times. I do think they're shine at some of the best, also, even though Bowe didn't last year. But Bowe disappeared last year and it's within the realm of possibilities he may never sniff a year like 2010 again.

The Bad

Eric Berry is going to have a tough time with once the offense does start scoring more, because teams are going to go after him even more than in the past. If I were an opposing OC, I would zero in on EB fast and often and wouldn't stop.

Regime Influence

Coaching and enthusiasm can help cover some of these issues. But those issues are not going to disappear after one camp. Reid isn't King Midas. He can mitigate issues better than the staff did last year, in fact, any coach should do better than Crennel & Co.

It's important to remember that these guys also contributed to a very, very bad season last year and that they're going to need some time to get back to winning status, and then push to playoff winning status. It's very unlikely that it's going to happen all in one year, and mixed in with a lot of FA and draft strangers that probably will be one of the highest turnover teams in the league by the time the season starts- look for some growing pains.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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