First off let me say hello. I have been a member of AP for 3 years now but this is my first fan post. Now that introductions are out of the way let's begin.
I was reading Joel's post on the snap count review of game 3 and decided to look into the numbers and see if there might be a hint as to who will make the final 53 man roster. Game 3 should provide the best indication as it is the closest thing to a real game we will see in the preseason. So three spots are filled so far.
On offense let's start with the QB's Only two QB'splayed in the game and typically most teams only suit 2 on game day. I think we are safe in assuming Alex Smith and Chase Daniels are locks to make the team. Game 3 did not give a hint as to who the 3rd QB will be but all indications seem to point towards Tyler Bray. I don't see any chance the Chiefs carry 4 QB's.
Next let's look at the O-line. The starters appear to be set as Branden Albert, Jeff Allen, Rodney Hudson, Jon Asamoah, and Eric Fisher. We are given no hint however as to who the back ups will be as many guys got a lot of snaps who will be cut. I think most people on AP would agree on Donald Stephenson and Geoff Schwartz being the primary back ups. The question then comes down to Eric Kush. I believe with as banged up as our o-line has been, the fact that we have no one else with experience snapping the ball, and that Kush was a draft pick all point to Kush making the squad. If Donald Stephenson had continued getting reps at guard as he did early in camp i might have considered Schwartz as a surprise cut candidate. That would mean we carry eight O-linemen and bring our total up to eleven players.
The third group that i will discuss is tight ends. I think we carry Anthony Fasano, Tony Moeaki, and Travis Kelce. Travis Kelse did not play and Tony Mo got hurt so the numbers show Kevin Brock getting a lot of snaps. This is a by product of not wanting to play the starters for the full game and no indication of Brock actually making the team. The total number of tight ends comes to three and we are now at fourteen players total.
The fourth group will be full backs. I know some people have brought up the possibility of carrying two full backs but i think this is due to many Chiefs fans also being Wildcat fans. Braden Wilson only got 1 snap on special teams which is a pretty good indicator he won't make the team. The only way to possibly carry a second fullback is if the second one is a member of the core four on special teams. So Anthony Sherman is the lone full back and the total is up to fifteen players.
I will look at the running backs next. Jamaal Charles and Kniles Davis are on the team with out question. The big question with running backs is do we carry three or four. The answer is special teams. The problem figuring this out is these are the final roster spots to be filled and they can go to any number of positions including defensive players. They are also used to finish out different roles and back up spots on special teams. One example is Devon Wiley appears to be the back up punt returner who may otherwise not make the team. In the end both Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray received about the same number of snaps on offense and on special teams. The other factor is they both received a middling number of snaps on special teams. This indicates they are in a very tight battle with only one likely to make the team. My personal hope is that Gray beats out Draughn as i see him as a player with a much higher upside which i prefer for those bottom of the roster spots. So we end up with three running backs and are at eighteen players total.
Finally we get to wide receivers and can say three spots are locked up, Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, and Dexter McCluster. Once again how many do we keep? This can run from anywhere between five and seven players depending on special teams ability. Looking at the snap counts it would appear at first sight that Junior Hemingway is the fourth in line as he received a large number of snaps on both offense and special teams but A.J. Jenkins just arrived this week and may be in line for the fourth spot once he gets up to speed. Hopefully Hemingway's large number of special teams snaps means he will make it. Two other players are also in the mix when you look at special teams snap counts, Devon Wylie and Terrance Copper. I think in the end we end up with six receivers but we have seven listed. I know Copper has been a special teams ace for a long time but i think in the end he is the odd man out. I think our final list of receivers would then be Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, A.J. Jenkins, Junior Hemingway, and Devon Wylie. The total for offensive players ends up at twenty four players.
I'll go ahead and add special teams here as it will be short and sweet. Dustin Colquit, Ryan Succop, and Thomas Gafford all make the team.
In the end we i noticed we appear to have a very good competition brewing for the third running back spot and I believe we have four receivers vying for three spots. These numbers could fluctuate depending on how the bottom of the defensive backs roster breaks down. If the loser of the Gray/Draughn battle or the loser of the WR battle can make a bigger impact on special teams then we might carry four running backs or seven receivers.
Thanks for reading and as I said it is my first post so be easy on me but if you have any critique feel free to add it in the comments in case i do any future posts (like maybe following up with reviewing the information on the defensive players).