FanPost

Why JC2K will take over CJ2K in All-time Record for Yards from Scrimmage in 2013

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Disclaimer: Many of these statistics rely on projections and predictions, but I attempt to stay within a rational realm of plausibility. I apologize beforehand about the stats which are organized in a relatively poor fashion, it may be pretty hard to keep up. Also the title is a little bit misleading because I will not be talking about Charles getting to 2000 yards rushing (although I think he can as well in 2013), just the yards from scrimmage.

The Chiefs have overhauled the entire franchise this offseason, let's recap the changes:

  • New General Manager, Head Coach, O-coordination, D-coordinator, Special Teams Coach, Wide Receiver Coach, Offensive consultant, Spread game analyst, ...
  • Lost: Cassel, Quinn, Dorsey, Arenas, Menzie, DiMarco
  • Gained: Alex Smith, Fisher, Robinson, Sean Smith, DeVito, Abdullah, Avery, Fasano, Kelce, Sherman, Daniel

Here is a simple reason why Jamaal Charles should logically put up bigger numbers. Chiefs have retained all their key players and added, not replaced established and talented players in many positions. Chiefs have also brought in proven coaches and personnel who have succeeded in the NFL. The extent to which the Chiefs have gotten better is unknown; it is very difficult to project how all those key losses and additions will help or hinder Charles. What we do know is that the Chiefs in 2013 will be a completely different team than the team in 2012.

Speaking of changes, let's continue by comparing Jamaal Charles in Crennel's system to LeSean McCoy in Reid's system. I will take the years 2010 & 2012 for JC (2011 out with torn achilles) and 2010 & 2011 for McCoy (Took his best 2 in 4 to stack the odds against JC, his other two are very pedestrian).

Carries/Game

Yards/Carry

Rec/Target

Yards/Rec

Rec Yards

Total TDs

McCoy in 2010

13.8

5.2

78/90

7.6

592

9

Charles in 2010

14.4

6.4

48/69

10.4

468

8

McCoy in 2011

18.2

4.8

45/66

6.6

315

20

Charles in 2012

17.8

5.3

35/48

6.7

236

6

  • The number of carries for McCoy and JC are nearly identical. JC was more effective as he ran 1.2 more yards/carry in the first year and 0.5 more yards/carry in the second year.
  • McCoy had 156 targets while Charles had 107 targets during the two years.
  • Charles had 2.8 yards more yards/reception in the first year and 0.1 more yards/reception in the second year.
  • McCoy had 20 TDs in 2011; to put this in perspective, Adrian Peterson had 13 total TDs last season.

These stats show Charles's versatility and efficiency as a runner and a receiver. However, it validates what we already knew about Charles; he is very productive when he gets the ball. Now let's compare the QB Michael Vick and Matt Cassel from the same seasons.

Games Played

Total Yards/Game

TDs

Michael Vick in 2010

12

290

21

Matt Cassel in 2010

15

188

27

Michael Vick in 2011

13

290

18

Matt Cassel in 2012

9

205

6

  • Well, Cassel's # of TDs are pathetic. He would have needed 18 games to throw as many TDs as Vick in the first year, and 27 games to throw as many TDs in the second year. I guess I should mention Cassel threw for 10 and 6 TDs... EDIT: his 10 TD was his 2011 season, he had his claim to fame 27/7 season in 2010, 0 TD 3 INT and one of the worst performances I have ever seen in playoff football by any position.
  • The difference in yards per game (Passing + Rushing) are staggering as well. While Vick didn't have a great season, Matt Cassel made him look like Peyton Manning in his prime. Cassel averaged about 100 yards per game less than Vick.
  • The incompetence of the QB made the game plan against the Chiefs extremely simple; try to stop JC and dare Cassel to win it with his arm. While all the blame does not fall on Cassel, he looked completely overwhelmed and incapable out there in 2012 and his entire stint at KC.

Now let's delve deeper into just how involved Charles was in the offense during the 2012 season under Crennel, a season in which he managed to gain 1,509 rushing yards and 236 receiving yards despite having a very inefficient, inaccurate, and incompetent QB.

# of Carries/Targets/Opportunities for Charles before the Chiefs were Down 10+ for Good (2012)

Carries

Targets

Opportunities

(*)

Total Opportunities

(**)

Time

(***)

Decision

ATL

11

1

12

16

3Q 4:54

L

BUF

4

3

7

10

2Q 3:29

L

NOR

33

8

41

41

Overtime

W

SD

0

0

0

21

1Q 6:26

L

BALT

31

2

33

33

Regulation

L

TB

7

2

9

15

3Q 12:46

L

OAK

5

3

8

8

Regulation

L

SD

11

2

13

16

4Q 11:33

L

PITT

23

0

23

23

Overtime

L

CIN

9

0

9

23

2Q 7:52

L

DEN

23

0

23

23

Regulation

L

CAR

27

4

31

31

Regulation

W

CLE

11

0

11

19

3Q 12:28

L

OAK

5

0

5

13

3Q 6:41

L

IND

22

1

23

25

Regulation

L

DEN

7

1

8

16

2Q 5:32

L


(*) Opportunities: This denotes the number of opportunities (carries + targets) JC was given before KC goes down 10+ for good. If Chiefs stayed within 10 points or less during the entire game, the "opportunities" column would be identical to the "total opportunities".

(**) Total Opportunities: This denotes the number of total opportunities JC had during the entire game regardless of how many points the Chiefs were down by.

(***) Time: This denotes the moment in which the Chiefs fall into a 10+ point deficit and cannot get any closer for the rest of the game. Therefore, Regulation and Overtime would signify that the Chiefs stayed within 10 points to the very end of the game.

  • We can see a general trend within the chart. The more opportunities JC gets to make a play, the longer do the Chiefs remain competitive.
  • In the Chiefs two wins, JC has 41 total opps vs. NO and total 31 opps vs. Carolina. That is 2 of his 3 games in which he has 30 or more total opps. in 2012. Against Baltimore, JC had 33 total opps and the Chiefs lost 9-6 in regulation.
  • The Chiefs underutilized him when they were competitive and non-competitive (No need to mention when they had the lead).
  • 5 opps against Oakland until the mid-3rd Quarter, and 13 total opps.
  • 0 opps against SD until the mid-1st Quarter, Chiefs were completely overwhelmed.
  • 7 opps against Buffalo until 3 minute mark in the 2nd Quarter, 10 total opps.
  • 8 total opps against the other game vs. Oakland, This makes 21 total opps for JC vs Oakland all year long. That is unacceptable.
  • In 8 out of 16 games, Charles had less than 20 total opportunities meaning he had less than 20 (rushing attempts + targets for reception) in each of those 8 games.

HERE ENDS THE NEED FOR THE DISTINCT TERMS "OPPORTUNITIES" & "TOTAL OPPORTUNITIES", I WILL SIMPLY JUST REFER TO THEM ALL AS OPPORTUNITIES FROM HERE ON OUT.

Now let's compare the opportunities for McCoy in 2011 to JC in 2012.

Carries

Targets

Opportunities for McCoy in 2011

Opportunities for JC in 2012

STL

15

3

18

16

ATL

18

4

22

10

NYG

24

3

27

41

SF

9

9

18

21

BUF

11

7

18

33

WAS

28

4

32

15

DAL

30

3

33

8

CHI

16

5

21

16

AZ

14

5

19

23

NYG

23

4

27

23

NE

10

7

17

23

SEA

17

5

22

31

MIA

27

6

33

19

NYJ

18

2

20

13

DAL

13

2

15

25

WAS

DNP

DNP

DNP

16

  • When you add the opportunities all up, we end up with, McCoy: 342 opp in 15 games, Charles: 333 opp in 16 games. We can project McCoy to have around 365 opp in 16 games giving him 31 more than JC.
  • While both players had only 3 games in which they passed 30 opps, McCoy had 18 or more opportunities in 13/15 games played. Charles had 9/16 games in which he had 18 or more opportunities.
  • JC had 6 games in which he had 0 targets, McCoy had no games in which he had 0 targets.
  • An interesting note is that the Eagles in 2011 only had 3 games in which they could not stay within 10 points in the season. (NYG 3:32 in 4Q, NE 0:51 in 3Q, SEA 12:51 in 4Q) Chiefs had 4 games in which they could not stay within 10 points from a moment before halftime.

Had JC been given 31 more opps in 2012, it would be safe to assume he would have at least converted on 26 of them. 26 times 5.5 (avg yard per rush & recp) is 143 yards.

JC in 2012 would have had around 1888 total yards with 365 opps. Chris Johnson holds the single season record for yards from scrimmage with 2509 yards. This means Charles would have to gain 39 more yards per game whether it is with rushes or receptions even with the same workload as McCoy in 2011.

There were games in which Charles was severely under-used, so being the optimistic homer that I am, I will give JC 100 total yards in each of the following four games: 10 opps/22 yards vs BUF, 15 opps/47 yards vs TB, 8 opps/10 yards vs OAK, 13 opps/28 yards vs OAK. This would raise his total yards in 2012 to 2,181 yards which means he would have to gain 20 more yards per game to break the yards from scrimmage record. Now the feat seems much more feasible.

I will assume JC will need 3 more extra opps to gain 20 more yards a game and 50 more opps to gain 293 yards to get all those 4 game totals to 100 yards each. (used 5.5 yards per rush & rec to calculate)

This would mean JC would have to receive more opportunities than LeSean McCoy did in 2011. It would have required around 98 more opportunities than McCoy to the tune of 440 opportunities in 2012 season for JC. This means he would need around 107 more opportunities than he did last year. That is around 9 more targets a week, which is a hefty number.

  • This is where I will increase JC's yards/carry from 5.3 in 2012 to his career average of 5.8 this season, which is feasible because of all the Chiefs changes with their QB, OL, Defense, etc. This would mean he would require 27 less opps, giving him 413 opps to break the record.
  • If JC repeats his amazing 6.4 ypc from 2010, he will need 57 less opps, giving him 383 opps to break the record.
  • To keep things in perspective, in 2012, Arian Foster had 409 opportunities, Adrian Peterson had 399 opportunities, Doug Martin had 390 opportunities, Alfred Morris had 351 opportunities. Chris Johnson needed 429 opportunities to reach 2,509 yards from scrimmage in 2009. JC had 333 opportunities in 2012, which means he needs around 4-5 more opportunities a game to break the record if he can play 16 games and increase his ypc average to 5.8-6.4 while maintaining his ypr average.

While these rankings are not reliable for certain teams, let's take a look at the rushing defenses Chiefs will face in 2013. Surprisingly the toughest tests, at least from last year, will be our very own AFC West Rivals. In my opinion, this favors the Chiefs because we all know Jamaal Charles comes to play against the AFC West when he is given the opportunities to do so.

Team Rushing Defense Rank (2012)

JAC

30

DAL

22

PHI

23

NYG

25

TEN

24

OAK

18

HOU

7

CLE

19

BUF

31

DEN

3

SD

6

DEN

3

WAS

5

OAK

18

IND

30

SD

6

Of course, Reid is planning to incorporate some pistol offense in KC, which I absolutely love for the players in KC, especially Jamaal Charles. Here is a video of the read option HB keep run by Nevada and Chris Ault.


The blocking scheme looks like the perfect match for the Chiefs athletic and stout offensive line. I could see Charles blowing past gaps more often than we've ever seen before with this formation.

Here is a video of a brief explanation of the pistol offense:

It seems like the pistol offense creates two separate halves of the field and allows the QB and Coordinator to pick which way to take the play. I think the Chiefs will use DMC in the backfield sometimes instead of a FB to pair with Charles to create a lot of mismatches.

If defenses lined up like he drew up, Jamaal Charles would get a huge gain running to the left side.

If defenses choose to load the left, Chiefs can sweep with McCluster to the right.

Chiefs would have Bowe, Kelce, and Fasano out there, who are good route runners with great hands and are just as great at blocking for their position.

These are some reasons why I believe there is a legitimate chance Charles can break 2,509 in 2013.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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