FanPost

First Round QB Evaluation Since 2000




For the record I approve of the Smith trade but not until I carefully evaluated the options. Is it what i wanted.. no, I preferred Andrew Luck but if you evaluate the risk of 1st Round QBs and who are available it is the better of both options.

Here is a list of first round QB's taken since 2000 and overall pick -X). How many of these would you be happy with in hindsight? For every Aaron Rodgers (who was overlooked) there are 3 Joey Harrington's and Mark Sanchez's.

2000 - 18th: Chad Pennington
2001 - 1st: Michael Vick
2002 - 1st: David Carr
2002 - 3rd: Joey Harrington
2002 - 32nd: Patrick Ramsey
2003 - 1st: Carson Palmer
2003 - 7th: Byron Leftwich
2003 - 19th: Kyle Boller
2003 - 22nd: Rex Grossman
2004 - 1st: Eli Manning
2004 - 2nd: Phillip Rivers
2004 - 11th: Ben Roethlisberger
2004 - 22nd: J.P. Losman
2005 - 1st: Alex Smith
2005 - 24th: Aaron Rodgers
2005 - 25th: Jason Campbell
2006 - 3rd: Vince Young
2006 - 10th: Matt Leinart
2006 - 11th: Jay Cutler
2007 - 1st: JaMarcus Russell
2007 - 22nd: Brady Quinn
2008 - 3rd: Matt Ryan
2008 - 18th: Joe Flacco
2009 - 1st: Matt Stafford
2009 - 5th: Mark Sanchez
2009 - 17th: Josh Freeman
2010 - 1st: Sam Bradford
2010 - 25th: Tim Tebow

As I have stated before.. I do risk management and analysis for a living and if I were to weigh the risk on Geno Smith or another QB in this draft I would not give a favorable rating to this acquisition. This list is predominantly misses and filled more with brief moments of success than stalwart franchise QBs. Even the QBs who are successful come with heavy knocks from their fan base for poor play and some never even made an impact whatsoever. My rating would have been far different for Andrew Luck last year but even out of the #1 overall selections I would only take Manning in this list and even he is criticized frequently in New York. Even Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and John Elway's of the world had limited success without a formidable team around them. Is Alex Smith in that group? NO But he is better or equivalent to others who have Super Bowl victories: (Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, etc.)

Evaluation: The first rule of the universe is "You cannot get what is not there". There is no recognizable elite QB to draft.. why even lament the decision to do the next best thing?

Bottom Line: Considering the options I think our trade for Alex Smith was prudent and we still have the opportunity for upside if we invest that pick (or picks via trade) wisely? For all we know AZ or NYJ may have offered a package for that pick. The situation is evolving but considering the options Dorsey and Reid are playing it smart.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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