This year's market dynamics say that the Chiefs won't get a big premium for trading down.
I started this post as a comment in response to "Evaluating the Suitors" by Steve_Chiefs, which is definitely worth reading. Once I got past 200 words, I figured that a FanPost might be the better format.
Steve_Chiefs offers some fun and insightful speculation about which team might deal with the Chiefs for the #1-1 pick this year. I'm going to shamelessly rip off his format while adding some additional context about this year's trade market. The conclusion I reached, sadly, is that "God still hates Kansas City" (c.f. Simmons, Bill). Even if the Chiefs can clinch a trade, the team probably won't get more than a second-rounder and some Day 3 picks in exchange.
Here are my working assumptions:
1) None of this year’s QBs are immediate franchise guys, so a team would have to be truly needy at the position to consider trading up.
2) The Chiefs will not draft a QB at #1-1. You can bet your house AND your first born on this.
3) Given the scouting buzz, I’ll put Nassib on a par with Smith. Both will go in the top 10, and maybe Barkley too.
4) Combining items 2 and 3 means that teams in the 4 to 10 range could just as easily deal with Jacksonville or Oakland and still get a top QB.
5) The 2014 QB class could be pretty strong with Aaron Murray, Tajh Boyd, and AJ McCarron. A hopeless team like Oakland or the Jets might want to wait for next year.
Given these assumptions, here's a review of the 9 teams currently scheduled to draft in positions 2-10 and the reasons why they might or might not trade with the Chiefs:
1. The Jaguars don’t need to trade up to get a QB. They'll save their picks to fill other holes, of which there are plenty.
2. Oakland doesn’t have the trade capital, as Steve_Chiefs noted, so they’re better off waiting to see what falls to them or waiting ‘til next year. I would guess that they are positioning themselves as an alternative trade partner to the Chiefs, and lord knows they could use the picks.
3. Philly has two QBs already and it’s not clear that any 2013 QBs will be an upgrade. Even if they wanted one, they would be smart to save their powder, i.e., wait until after the Jags pick to see whether they might want to swap places with Oakland.
4. Detroit with Stafford on board? I agree with Steve_Chiefs: no way.
5. Cleveland is possible but unlikely. I can’t see them giving up on Weeden just yet. They’d have to really like Smith or Nassib.
6. Arizona: now you’re talkin’. Drew Stanton’s new contract is not much of a financial deterrent, and the other QBs on the roster have played themselves out of the picture. The Cards legitimately have to worry about whether Smith or Nassib will fall to them, so trading up makes sense.
7. I’d also consider Buffalo a possibility for the same reasons as AZ, but the Bills fan ‘SomewhatEccentric’ argues convincingly against it happening:
Bills GM Buddy Nix "mentioned many times how he hates giving up picks and doesn’t like trading up. Which is why the only time he’s ever traded up since he’s been GM was 2 spots in the third for a seventh rounder. He’s been ice cold about staying put in the past."
8. The Jets sure could use an upgrade, but they already have $17 million committed to the QB position in 2013 (see www.overthecap.com) and so many other problems that the cost of trading up is probably not worth it this year. I'd also want to have the right head coach on staff to develop a QB, and something tells me Rex Ryan might not be that guy. On the other hand, if they succeed in dealing Revis, they might have the wherewithal to trade with the Chiefs. I rate them as a possible but highly unlikely trade partner.
9. The Titans are another possibility. Their FA signings indicate that they’re in ‘win now’ mode, so it depends on what they think about Jake Locker and what trading up can do for them. I'm lukewarm on Locker: PFF reports that Locker’s overall accuracy is average, and that he’s at his worst under pressure (you need to subscribe to see their advanced stats). These typically are not areas where a QB improves much (unless he's Alex Smith). If I were the Titans' GM, I’d look into a trade and pull the trigger if the price were right. But remember, they could just as easily deal with Jacksonville or Oakland.
So there are what?, maybe 3 viable trade partners in this group. From any of these team's point of view, the motivation for trading up is weak while the Chiefs' competition for making a trade is strong. The market continues to work against our team this year (which, incidentally, adds further justification for the Alex Smith trade). I'd still like to see the Chiefs grab a second round pick, but I think Dorsey would be making a mistake by setting the price too high. What do the rest of you think?