I am dog tired from going to bed and waking u every 10 min to check AP and twitte for news.. but I also thought of this entire post and put pen to Cyber world paper.
I believe things are going to play out a certain way in the next months, given on what we know from yesterdays FA signings and what we know about Dorsey; in fact if you want a catch phrase for your show you can call it WWJD- What would John Do?
This year’s draft, as we all damn well know, does not have the clear cut top elitist QB, despite the showings of Geno Smith at the combine. Stars L. heart condition took a ding on his stock draft value. The “pundits” or “Experts” like to play it safe with draft picks and evaluations but at the safe time contradict what they say by saying Luke Joekel is the top player taken but not the clear number 1 pick. The biggest problem was and always will be in the offseason is: Wants and needs.
KC wants a QB – no clear cut QB and before the combine there I no value for trade down. So WWJD:
Get a solid improvement over what we have by trading for Alex Smith. Since the Market wasn’t set he over paid. He learned the mistakes of Pioli and didn’t want to follow it by having a huge deal with an unproven commodity but he pulled the trigger and got reamed a bit by fans and the media. Now that the QB market is out there and a solid back locked up Dorsey helped himself in being able to shop Matt Cassel for a respectable draft pick in return: A 5th round draft pick would be beautiful and plausible. So teams needing a vet back up that is serviceable are the Titans and the Cardinals that stick out in my mind. For myself I believe its Arizona but I wouldn’t throw out Tennessee due to the possibility of Matt Hassel beck might be retiring. So far this is how we look for draft day *note I am including what I believe to be our draft compensatory picks for this year. A 3rd for Brandon Carr based off of salary paif to him by Dallas and a 7th for Kyle Orton.
3rd B comp – for Brandon Carr
5 B Trading Cassel
7th B – For Kyle Orton
Now we dropped Winston – I think Winston is hurt and couldn’t hang with what he was getting paid and decided to test walk when asked to take a pay cut ; Winston- though denied on 610 sports to save face ( Assuming and I know what Romeo says about assuming) so again.. WWJD: He helps his image a bit with KC and cuts Winston and all of the bad feelings and ill will about his poorly timed and ill willed accusations about the fans of KC for booing Matt Cassel are taken care of. I’m not saying it’s a primary reason for being cut but it’s a good PR move.
Dorsey with the TAG deadline approaching makes the correct choice; The FA market is going to be set with the 1st WR taken;
Chiefs re-sign WR Dwayne Bowe (5 years, $56M; $24M guaranteed)
Before FA starts and tags Brandon Albert – and given the #1 offensive player a new deal; Dustin Colquitt. Great move. What has happened since then?
Dolphins sign WR Mike Wallace (5 years, $65M; $30M guaranteed)
– Bowes contract looks good right now to me.
TE Kevin Boss is done; concussions ended his potential good to great career. The hole is there when he inherited the chiefs;
WWJD: Spends some cash on a decent TE who compliments Tony Moeaki on his areas of weakness.
TE Anthony Fasano – 4 years 16 million with guarantees. Hes 28 years old and the big part of the contract is front loaded. Good move and here is why; there are 2 clear cut draft picks that will be studs – Tyler Eifert from Notre Dame and Zach Ertz from Stanford both of whom will be drafted in the 2nd round due to the Bill Bellichick 2 TE system that the NFL copycat league is adopting. We can ill afford this 2nd round commitment partly due to the Smith trade and the other by position holes. Remember (Wants and needs.)
There is no clear cut number 2 Cornerback. I believe this move gives him flexibility to do moves after this signing listed below.
Chiefs sign CB Dunta Robinson (3 years) – This is a solid depth move right here; he’s a nickel situation and a 3rd CB and spells Javier Arenas from full time duties. We have an unknown commodity in Dequan Menzie since he was on the IR last season. The open market for CB has yet to be set and that will change Wednesday.
This opens up 2 things to happen:
We go after a trade with the jets and trade our 1st pick to them for their 4th overall 2nd round pick and Revis. If that doesn't fly we go after DRC, Nnamdi or Smith from the dolphins.Having Dunta Robinson gives Dorsey the flexibility to not have to draft a CB high in the draft; Enter the Honeybadger – 5th round pick.
T-jax is expensive but showed improvement and Glenn Doresey has never lived up to his potential. WWJD?
Chiefs sign DE Mike DeVitto (3 years) – 12 million with at least 5 million in 2013. With Tjax restructured and this deal done with Devitto this enable Dorsey to let the underwhelming other Dorsey walks into FA. Thus far we have at the bare minimum the same caliber 3 starting DE positions addressed. This gives him the flexibility to draft a stud in this year’s draft; Margus Hunt.
Now the bread and butter of the whole mindset of WWJD
The following players that are O-line guys have gotten deals:
LT Sam Barker –Atlanta 6yrs $$ unknown
OT King Dunlap – Chargers - $$ unknown
LT Jermon Bushrod – Bears 5 year 35.9 Million.
This leaves FA Long, formerly of Miami and a number 1 overall pick, in the waiting and our Brandon Albert in the strong FA pool. The aforementioned FA signings drove the market value of Branden Albert AND the number 1 overall pick through the roof. I believe we can Trade Branden Albert for at a minimum a 2nd round pick. I don’t know which team but it can happen and believe it will.
Now where the blue chipper is in this year’s draft; Luke Joekel by now all of the 32 teams are becoming more cognized of LT position is cheaper and younger in the draft in comparison to the salary cap. Also add to this co ple though process is the leaking of the Raiders and the Jets liking Geno Smith plus the dire NEEDS not WANTS of the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars needing something that resembles a QB – much like we did. St Louis needs a LT so the possibility of a trade is plausible as well – in order to protect their 50 million dollar purchase: Sam Bradford.
The first draft as General Manager: WWJD?
1st This pick is traded to the Jets for Darrel Revis and the 4th overall a 2nd round pick. OR it’s traded to St Louis for their 2 1st round picks. Oakland has no trade ammo and they are over the salary cap or just under the salary cap. I believe Arizona will trade with us but it will be for Matt Cassel. I firmly believe that it will be the Jets – they will want to jump Oakland and Jacksonville for Geno Smith. They need to with their Sanchez Tebow situation brewing and I know their fans wont stand for another USC Trojan QB. This brings us to our first pick:
4th overall Pick ((from the Jets) (although I reserve the idea of another trade down to allocate MORE picks)) OT – Luke Jokel if he’s still there or Eric Fisher.
2nd Round (from the jets) – Margus Hunt DE – We draft a solid DE to replace Tjax in 2014
2nd Round – From Albert Trade – Safety Matt Elam Florida – or Eric Reid Saftey LSU Either Saftey aids with Eric Berry and solidifies our Secondary.
3rd Round – Barret Jones G/OT/C - We need a flex OT and Guard since Lilja retired Jones comes from a well groomed SEC Alabama team. Should we need him to fill a slot and or start under center he can.0
3rd B comp – for Brandon Carr TE Tyler Bray QB Tennessee You draft the QB in the 3rd round because he is there, because of Russel Wilson and because of the kids arm. I know we picked up Chase Daniels former Mizzou QB as the backup but he is an unknown. Tyler is a junior with a lot of upside and as much as I love Ricky Stanzi I don’t see him on the team next year and having Bray gives Andy a chance to see if he can be molded and used/ traded in the future.
4th Round – The Honeybadger – Tyrann Mathieu CB – Signing Dunta Robinson and trading for Revis gives Dorsey the flexibility to go after a “problem child” and grown into the CB position when either Revis leaves or Flowers is traded/cut due to the Salary cap in 2-3 years. You remember this kid when he played, he was and is a ball hawk and former 1st round graded pick until his drug mishap.
5th Round – Marcus Lattimore – This is a former 1st rounder whom has lost draft stock woth injury but has the time to heal this season and be a compliment with Charles come 2014 season.
5 B Trading Cassel – ILB Nico Johnson ILB Alabama or Chase Thomas ILB Stanford there is a gaping hole with belcher gone but in all honesty drafting either kid would bring us back to par on what we had already when Belcher was starting ILB
6th WR Chirs Harper Kansas State – Project WR same size as Bowe and could be molded
7th TE Michael Williams Alabama- The Championship game where he shines was ages ago. He strikes me as a strong blocking TE but needs polish. I believe he will be a steal this late in the draft and an area we can throw a dart at.
7th B – (For Kyle Orton) 3-4 OLB Travis Long Washington State – Small school OLB with a good senior year and numbers. When it comes to 7ths round picks you throw darts at your areas of strength and as of right now its OLB with Tamba and Houston tearing things up.
I believe all his moves enables GM Dorsey to play it safe in this year’s draft as well as take chances with the late rounds on a problem child in Tyann M and injured Marcus Lattimore. There is little to no backlash from this draft as it fill positional needs that are in dire straits.
With all the information stated before about what we know in day of free agency plus the needs of the tops teams drafting in this draft I believe Dorsey is playing it safe overall. With Dorsey being able to trade down and recoup more draft picks it will erase the horrid 2nd round 2013 2/3 2014 choice and enable him to focus on other needs on the team. In doing so next year’s draft of QB’s are stacked. However that’s next year. This year’s wants and needs are clear:
Teams need to get younger and cheaper. There are teams in the top of the draft because of specific needs ether a QB or a LT that can actually block. If the teams I described before see that and trade with us we win. If they don’t we still win because we can draft that OT. The cards are lined up for Dorsey to “layup” on the QB situation and not receive heat rounds from the press for not drafting a QB this years because he went after all the other position needs that support an elite QB. Before I close you may be wondering about the need at right tackle. Scott Pioli did us 1 favor last year in the 2012 draft; his 2nd and 3rd round picks. Guard Allen and OT Stephenson can step right into starting roles. I do acknowledge it’s a young Offensive line with 2nd and rookies starters but they are not 5-7 castaways. Plus with the addition of the Jokel and Jones we have enough quality Offensive linemen to cover any injuries for the foreseeable future.
In closing it may be a pipe dream or a long Mach Draft but the big splashes I see, as I stated on twitter, are in the later rounds with selections of 2 specific players, Lattimore and the Honey badger. Everything that has transpired leads me to believe that the trades will happen and the cards will follow in line with what I laid out before you. Now I can turn off the Madden mode on the PS3 and watch it unfold…
Of course we could all be shocked in April if Dorsey selects QB Geno Smith .. then we are in for one weird NY Jets type filled media sensation seaso