From the FanPosts - Joel
Hey y'all, I'm back and this time with another tier of QBs. I know a few people had asked that I breakdown these guys, so dutifully I complied. I assume this is going to be important if y'all draft Joeckel or someone else, so I hope I can be informative. The second tier of QBs are simply a study in mystery. Statistically, any of them could be the best quarterback in this class. Now, no one is expecting EJ Manuel to go number 1 overall, but these stats could give you some pause when ranking your quarterbacks. Two of these quarterbacks have the best deep accuracy in this class. One had better deep accuracy than RGIII did. One has the second best 11-20 yard accuracy of any QB in the last two classes. What to make of it? Let’s find out.
As always, these stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.
Here are the individual scouting reports (they'll be updated all day through 2/8)
Where Are They Throwing the Ball?
- Ryan Nassib’s distribution of passes could be Andrew Luck’s from last year. Instead of writing it all out, I’ll just put up a chart to show how similar they are. Aside from a 2.5 point swing in the 6-10/11-20 ranges, they could be the same chart
- Dysert went deep nearly half as often as the AvgQB. Where the AvgQB went deep 14% of the time, Dysert only threw deep 7.88% of the time. The majority of his targets are concentrated in the 1-10 yard range at 59%.
- EJ Manuel only threw it past ten yards 26% of the time. This ties Barkley for the lowest amount in the last two classes. Was that Jimbo Fisher’s offense or Manuel just deciding to hit the easy passes often? Most likely a combination of both.
- All three QBs threw in the 1-5 yard range far more than average. All hover in the 32-36% range for 1-5 yard passes, approximately 8-10% more than average.
How Accurate Were They?
The color coding are comparisons to the AvgQB, thus green is above average, yellow is average, and red is below average. I have also taken out drops, for what I call the Perfect Receiver Rating, thus the completion percentages aren’t what you’d see in the box scores.
- These numbers are extremely strange.
- Dysert is the most accurate deep passer in the last two classes. However, as we saw above, he only went deep 7.88% of the time. It’s likely an anomaly, but this completion percentage would make him better at the deep ball than RGIII was (62.5%).
- EJ Manuel is the most accurate 11-20 yard passer in this class. Again, Manuel only went to this zone 13% of the time, but completed his passes an amazing 73% of the time. That would be second best in the last two classes only behind RGIII (81%)
- EJ also has the worst deep ball in this class. I don’t understand this, he’s super accurate from 11-20 yards but then suddenly drops off when he has to throw past 20 yards.
- Ryan Nassib is average or above average in every zone. He was extremely accurate at the deep ball, even after throwing there 10% of the time. His 11-20 yard completion percentage of 58.5% is impressive given that he threw to that zone 28% of the time.
Adjusted Completion %
The last bit of information I have is going to require a bit of explanation. My goal was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Zac Dysert have performed in Matt Barkley’s shoes? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them.
What I’ve done is taken out drops and then used my composite of targets in each zone from last year’s QBs to create an average system. Thus, I took their completion percentages, total passes, and the average system to find out what their overall completion percentage would have been in the average system.
- The top number is the adjusted completion percentage and the bottom number is the change from their overall completion percentage (with drops already taken out)
- We can see that Manuel would have the second highest adjusted completion percentage in this class. His completion percentage still dropped, due to the high number of ‘gimme’ passes, but only by 1.12%
- Nassib and Dysert’s numbers didn’t drop much. Neither ran what could be considered an ‘average offense’, but when the high targets on short passes are taken out, it’s balanced by the high completion percentages on deep passes (even though they didn’t throw them often)
I have more of the same charts as last time on the website: result, by down, by quarter, avg distance, and red zone yardage, you can check that out here: