Alright, I had a whole post ready to let go, but there was a very informative post put up by NUGap here. Due to the similarity in nature between in our posts, I felt it was necessary to include his findings interjected with mine. So, I erased around 1,500 words and started over.
Those of you unfamiliar with my original post on Eugene, you can find it here. Be sure to check out TigerPride’s post as well here. To understand how I constructed the chart and how to read it, reference my article from above. Before I decide to get wordy, let’s get to Tyler’s chart:
The above chart represents over 300 throws from Tyler Wilson. The games, listed as opponent and year, included in this analysis were: LSU 2012, Rutgers 2012, South Carolina 2011 & 2012, Auburn 2011, Mississippi St. 2011, Tulsa 2012, and Ole Miss from 2012. I originally wanted to include 2011 because Wilson was better in 2011. I soon found out that YouTube gave me no other choice. From what I could find, Tyler didn’t have the best selection in film to study.
Before I start to look over the numbers, let’s look at some of the findings from NUGaps post.
Now let’s look at a chart I developed to help match the similarities and differences between his and mine. The first thing I had to do was disregard my vertical separation of the football field.
Comparing the results:
First off, I’m not trying to discredit either of these evaluations. I’m just trying to relate the two.
Simply put, he divided the first 10 yards into three categories (screens, 1 – 5 yards, and 6 – 10 yards). I divided these same types of passes into two categories (NLOS and 4 to 9 yards). Note that I went up to 9 yards and he went up to 10. This doesn’t sound like a big deal, until you start doing the evaluation. There are plenty of balls that are caught/dropped at 10 yards and should be considered when judging our differences.
Again, he grouped passes 20+ yards downfield into one category; I choose to use two categories to divide this group (21 to 30 and 31+).
If I group my two downfield categories together (21 to 30 and 31+), I get that Geno is 18/43 for 41.9% and Tyler is 21/45 for 46.7% for passes 21+ yards downfield. If you look at NUGap’s chart he has Geno and Tyler at 44.4% and 43.5%, respectively, for throws 20+ yards downfield. Again, his analysis includes throws at 20 yards, I didn’t include this. And, when one throw is worth over 2% in completion percentage (for me), this is worth noting.
Really, the two separate evaluations describe the players in similar manners. NUGap has Geno completing 89% of his screens and I have him completing 88% NLOS. We both show that Wilson struggles with the intermediate throws. I have him at 46% from 10 to 20, while NUGap has him near 54% from 11 to 20. Again, that one yard is relevant when discussing differences. In addition, the difference in games used to evaluate had to play a major role in the difference in findings.
Unfortunately, with NUGap doing his evaluation, it leaves little to no need for what I did... :( I like my chart in describing throws past 20 yards, because it tells more of the story. Other than that and separating the field vertically as well as horizontally, NUGap provides a much more thorough and descriptive analysis. I would highly recommend his post to anyone, very good stuff.
The biggest thing that worries me about Tyler is that intermediate range. I can tell you that Tyler struggles in this range. His accuracy and timing just leave something to be desired when he tries to make these throws. These are the throws that I was most interested in while doing this research. Some of you probably share my beliefs in the importance of these throws, and I somewhat discussed why in my original post on Geno.
Somewhat off topic, I want to give a shout out to MNchiefsfan. I want to make it public (on AP?) that I officially despise him for his powers in the art of the jinxing. I originally applauded and rejoiced in his lone efforts to bring down Manning and the Broncos. Until the following exchange occurred in a local fanpost:
Who could ever crack 60 recs???
Not a Jayhawk fan, for sure ;)
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
O/T from the best team in college basketball….
Tyler Wilson: A Tale in Accuracy… hits the streets tomorrow.
Oh man, JayhawksNChiefs, you sir are an idiot. Those two, short, fragmented sentences would do more damage than I could ever fathom. The very next morning, NUGap dropped his post that completely blew mine out of the water and crushed any hopes I had of providing some new and relevant information to the current QB debate on AP. Not to mention the numerous hours that I felt were now all but wasted. If only that was the end of it. Little did I know at the time, this jinx was just getting started.
My beloved Jayhawk basketball team was the real victim here. I fully realize that the majority of readers here are probably Mizzou fans. Congratulations, you guys might enjoy the jinx on the Broncos just as much as this one. Bill Self teams don’t lose at home and they don’t lose two in a row. I’m hurt and depressed. I’m in Portland for work, where the sun is supposedly not allowed to make an appearance. It’s raining. I had to watch that crapfest of a game versus TCU last night at a Buffalo Wild Wings in a corner by myself. To top it off, my favorite IPA ran out midway through the game and it was the last keg! I’m close to the edge right now guys. Thanks MN, I don’t think you meant to do it, but you set me up in making the most regretful comment of my AP career. It’s going to take me at least two days to get over this, and I hope you wait until then to comment on this post, if you decide to at all.