Offseason 2013: Cap, FA, and the #1 overall pick

Watching the myriad of rumors churning through the media mill faster than Usain Bolt in the Olympics is fatigue inducing. So is shoveling 25 feet of snow, and that's just what the plow left at the end of my driveway. I feel like a weak weak man right now. I'm scraping for every ounce of energy I can, then I get hit again with the rumor powerbomb:


A few things that can be gleaned from the gelatinous fester of noise that is somehow bombarding my eyeballs, and my weakening by the minute body, is that the Chiefs are clearly interested in a Free Agent QB (CHECK). They seem iffy about Brandon Albert (CHECK CHECK). And Andy Reid loves trades and Free Agency as much as he does KC BBQ (DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!).

We have had, and are currently still having plenty of chatter about the draft. Mainly the #1 overall pick and what should be done with it. Truth be told, teams do not trade up for the #1 pick very often, and the chances of us trading out of that pick are about zero to none. In fact, it's more common for the #1 selection to be picked, and then traded, than it is for a #1 pick to be traded for a selection. Made you think there huh? Yeah, fuzzied my brain a little too.

I'm going to come back to the draft in a minute, but right now, let's talk CAP. On SB Nation, Ryan Van Bibber talks about the 2013 Salary Cap, and how high it could potentially be. In the article, he writes

The official cap number has yet to be determined, but a Tuesday report from Pro Football Talk suggests that the final amount could end up exceeding $122 million.

If this is true (and why wouldn't it be? This is SB Nation we're talking about!), then the Chiefs can spend up to $122 million. Right now, according to Spotrac, the Chiefs Cap figure is $112,711,142 + $5,582,849 (dead money, see the link here if you'd like a better understanding of what it is and how it works) = $118,293,991. However, we also have the 2012 carryover of $14,000,000. So we are presently sitting at $104,293,991. That's about $17.7 million under the salary cap. This includes the most recent signings and releases, but not our current Free Agents.

Matt Cassel: stands to make a base salary of $7.5+$2,325,000 in bonuses, for a cap hit of $9.825 million. Like that's going to happen! Cassel is the most likely of all the Chiefs to be cut/released, but his dead money hits us this season for $3.95 million, so we save roughly $6 million.

Tyson Jackson: Stag posted a Fanshot that sheds some interesting light on where the Chiefs seem to stand on Tyson, and it sounds very positive. I think a restructure is absolutely necessary as T-Jax stands to make $17.47million this season. Insane! If Tyson restructures, and I think there is no reason to believe that he won't, that could potentially save us $8-11 million, if not more (I am not an accountant, an agent, a mathlete, or even very good with numbers outside of 1+1=2. What these players sign for? I have no idea other than to check on players of comparable value to see the kind of contracts they are getting. For me, I don't think T-Jax has done enough to warrant a contract outside of the $5-6 range, but I'm guessing he'll bring down around $7-8).

Other notable players that could easily be let go and influence the Cap are:

Ryan Succop - $2.4 million - $1.2 in dead money = a savings of $1.2 (I don't think he's that bad, but last year he really was. Reid likes Kickers, I could see us drafting one)

Andy Studebaker - $2.055 million - $0 dead money = a savings of $2.055 (definitely a possibility)

Kendrick Lewis - $1,374,725 million -$51,725 = a savings of $1.323 (probably not a popular choice here, but given his injuries and consistency issues, I wouldn't be surprised to see him let go if we draft and/or sign a FA S)

If Tyson were restructured for roughly $7 million, Colquitt, Maneri, Ropati, and Gafford are resigned, while Cassel, Succop, Stude, and Lewis were released, we could potentially save about $20 million. That would give us around $37-38 million to work with. When you account resigning Albert ($8-10 million), possibly tagging Bowe ($9.4 million), signing our rookies ($5-6 million), that adds up to $20-24 million. Leaving us a ballpark estimate of $14-18 for Free Agency.

Going back to Reid's Free Agent-Palooza, we can expect to see several high caliber names associated with us (and they already have been). Names like Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (DRC), Nnamdie Asomugha, Greg Jennings, and of course Alex Smith (although the latest rumor is that he's headed for Arizona). None of these guys will come cheap. DRC is likely to be the most cost efficient, but will still command a $6-8 million per year contract.

Nnamdi might be released, he might not. Sound familiar? The Eagles and Nnamdi are meeting today to discuss his restructuring. If he refuses, the Eagles will owe him $4 million in dead money, and he will be available March 12th.

Greg Jennings is reportedly asking for $13 million from the Packers. That's about as likely as us paying Tyson Jackson his full contract this season AND trading our #1 overall pick. Not happening. Rumors are that the Packers could tag Jennings, but sources inside the organization don't think it will happen. Jennings will probably get $7-9 on the market given his injury history and age.

If we traded for Smith, we would also be taking on his contract. He's due over $8 million this season (interesting note. If the Cards do go for Smith, what happens to Kolb? Something to keep an eye on).

William Moore is another name that's been getting a lot of press around here lately. While he's a definite option, he will command the biggest $$$ out of the group listed above. He wants top dollar, but has expressed a "hometown" discount for the Falcons with the Latrell Sprewell catch that

I have to feed my son still too.

What a care-giver indeed. We all know how hard it must be making $10+million a year with mouths to feed. Almost soup kitchen worthy in this day and age. That poor man.

So about that draft? What do we do about that #1 overall pick that we can't trade out of? We are short at Defensive End. We're losing Glenn Dorsey (almost sure of that), and our only currently signed back-ups include Allen Bailey, and Daniel Muir. Not really instilling a lot of confidence in me going forward. We're short at OLB, DE, and S. We're QB deficient, and could use another C/G, as well as another CB and WR...have I missed any positions? Oh yeah, if we release Succop, we'll need a kicker too. We have a lot of needs, but if you look at our roster, we're pretty set at starters. Depth is were our real issues are.

I don't know who we're going to pursue outside of Nick Foles and Alex Smith, because obviously they're both almost, but not quite, a lock to come here. I think Philly is interested in moving away from Foles, and I'd be down for trading for him, but not at a high cost.




God Bless America! I felt like this post needed more pictures. Plus it's cold and snowy outside, weird but this warmed me right up! And for the ladies



:@ Okay, it's only fair. And to be fair, he's looking very Americanish! USA USA USA...and back to the post...

I'd like to see us trade for Foles, but nothing less than a 3rd at the most (preferably a 4th). I'd also like to see Chase Daniel brought in to compete, and a guy like Bray or Wilson drafted to sit and learn. On the D side of things I'd love to have Canty here, but I think if we resign Ropati, maybe Smith or wait for roster cuts, while drafting a solid guy with potential, we could be okay here.

Drafting a S would go a long way for us in money saving terms, and I would like to see us draft some quality depth at OLB, while signing a C/G in FA like Antione Caldwell (who would be cheap and provide solid depth immediately).

Where the Chiefs go from here is totally up in the air. We have some money, with the potential to siphon out even more, so what happens between now and March 12th, and from March 12th to the Draft, should be pretty exciting (and a little nerve racking).

I want to hope for the best, but I apologize if history has tainted my optimism lenses a bit. With FA right around the corner, who do you have your eye on, why, and what we should do with that #1 pick (that we most likely are going to be strapped with)? Let me know what you think, stay warm, stay classy, Happy Snowmaggedon!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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