So the news has broken that San Francisco has a trade in place to part ways with Alex Smith. All parties are backing off but we have seen this dance before. We understand that the Chiefs have been interested since day 1 in Smith but this won’t become official till 3/12. I was going to write a post that actually fits in with this, but so many people on here have been talking about how it’s Geno or no one. My point is simple and it’s this; if Reid and Dorsey think Geno is the guy and fits in for their system, they will draft him. If not, then they will find someone that does and that will not be with the first overall pick. It’s that simple.
Geno Smith wasn’t the guy. So Reid needed to find someone that fits and everyone else is more or less considered a project QB. Alex Smith fits in with what Reid needs in a QB. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and has a decent completion percentage, something that is crucial in a west coast offense. While last year with Smith completing 70.2 percent of his passes isn’t going to happen again, Smith has been consistently improving his completion percentage over the years. Smith will have a similar team as far as talent on offense. A solid offensive line that is run first, a pass catching TE that can stretch the field along with a big WR with Bowe or Baldwin. We will add a speed guy I’m sure with Reid at the helm to go along with McCluster who I’m sure will be better utilized now.
Now this is going to talk some of your down from the ledge. For those who wanted Geno Smith I understand completely. To be honest I wanted it to work out as well. Having a young QB who leads us all the way is the dream, but if Reid didn’t think he would work, then that’s where the dream will end. Alex Smith isn’t the QB of the future. He’s a place holder most likely for the 2nd pick in the 2nd round who I will predict later on. Smith gives us the chance to start winning now and improving this team while being able to develop our future with a REAL prospect at QB. This is someone who will be expected to challenge for the starting job next year.
Now for my predictions.
Free Agent and Draft Predictions
I’ve been doing my research like many of you on Andy Reid and seeing what we can expect from our first offseason with the new coach. Now I’m sure that not all of you are going to agree with what I’m saying, but just hear me out and give it a second to think about and sink in before you dismiss it.
Starting with our free agents
Brandon Albert –Signs Long Term Deal
I would say he gets 4-5 years with about $40 million with about $25 guaranteed or somewhere in that ballpark. He’s an above average tackle and will play even better with stability on offense for once.
Dwayne Bowe- Released
Well he’s a free agent, so we just don’t resign him. We have a big WR and that’s plenty for Reid. Bowe wants a ton of money, and Reid wants a fast WR, simply put, he’s probably not coming back.
Matt Cassel –Cut
We paid most of the big time money that he is owed and it just didn’t work out. We tried, probably for too long, but number 7 will be worn by someone else next year.
Brady Quinn- Released
Not coming back and might not get signed by a team next year. Doesn’t fit in Reid’s system I think, so probably back to ND for him to be a coach of some sort.
Glenn Dorsey- Released
We are sticking with the 3-4 and Dorsey just isn’t going to fit with what we want there. Best of luck to him, just hope he can stay healthy
Punters don’t usually leave, plus he has been one of the few consistent bright spots for the team. Sad, but true.
Free Agent Signings
QB- JaMarcus Russell
Do you remember a former number 1 overall pick that was out of football because he was in trouble with the law and made his comeback? That’s right it was Vick and even though we have much debate over Vick, there is no question that Vick had his moments. There are only a handful of coaches in the NFL that can get the most of their QB and I believe Reid is one of them. Russell is one of the few low risk high reward guys out there. In the NFL anymore you pay and pay a lot for high reward, almost no matter what the risk, but this will come cheap, kind of like Vick did with the Eagles. If anything he’s worth a look.
WR- Mike Wallace
Steelers aren’t really interested in paying him and Reid of course loves those fast guys. It seems too good to be true, but for Reid this is his idea of money well spent.
DE- Randy Starks
He could fill in for Dorsey right away. He’s a big guy at 6’3 305 who can actually get to the QB on occasion with 32.5 career sacks. At 29 years old he is durable and would be an upgrade on the line.
LB- Barrett Ruud
This really isn’t a sexy signing by any means but this guy used to be the stuff back in TB 2 years ago. He then got lost in the shuffle with the Texans but he’s a guy who at the very least is going to come in and compete for that starting job.
First 3 Rounds
The Jets aren’t a simple fix away from contending, but in New York you can’t say the R word (rebuilding) without being fired. So taking a QB seems like progress in the right direction and it probably is, but picking 9th you can’t even guarantee that you will be taking the second best QB in this draft. The Chiefs don’t make a big splash in free agency so they have money to spend. Revis gives the Chiefs a top secondary in the league along with being able to keep their first round pick. You might need to sweeten the deal but trading down from the 1st to 9th spot is worth 1650 in value or what is equivalent to the 5th or 6th overall pick. While this year it might not be worth as much, if the Jets fall in love with a top QB, they will be on the phone. Also a quick note, Reid loves CBs so he would be all over this deal.
1st round pick (9th overall)-S-Kenny Vaccaro
He’s hands down the best safety in the draft. He’s big and versatile and can fill in right now at the FS spot. Kendrick Lewis is good for depth but he’s not great to start week in and week out. Vaccaro nails down the secondary and probably means we have the best secondary ever in KC history.
2nd Round-QB-Matt Barkley
I know there has been a lot written about how finding a second round QB and making him your franchise QB doesn’t work. I would agree with you, with all the stats and history, but getting a first round QB is far from a sure thing as well. I wrote a piece a couple of months ago with these statistics. From 2002-2010 26 QBs have been taken in the 1st round. Only 10 of those QBs have worked out. 10/26 means a 38% success rate. Obviously getting one in the second round is even less, but we can’t say that everything is fixed with a first round QB. People say that this QB class is weak, but that’s a misnomer. It’s weak at the top, it is actually very deep. There are a number of talented QBs is in this class, but they need to put it all together. Barkley needs time to develop but he fits in the WCO and Reid’s system very well where accuracy is very important which will key in on Barkley’s strengths. I’m not a big Barkley fan by any means, but he does fit into the system and should still be there early in round 2.
3rd Round-OL Travis Frederick
I love getting OL in the 3rd round, provided that we have a 3rd round pick. Interior linemen usually don’t go early so you can get a top guy in the mid rounds. Frederick started a lot of games at Wisconsin plus gives the Chiefs more depth on the line. With Lilja retiring the line could at least use another body to compete in camp and be the next man up. You can never have too many linemen waiting in the wings and Frederick is the perfect guy to groom to take any of the 3 interior positions.