There are many possibly scenarios, But to me, at least studying Reid's history with the draft and positions he values, this is the most likely scenario. I don't endorse this prediction nor do I really flaunt it. I just believe this is truly the most realistic outcome to the draft as of today. Again, things can change so quickly that perhaps tomorrow, this will look silly. More after the jump....
THE #1 PICK SITUATION AND BRANDEN ALBERT.
With the on coming news of Alex Smith coming here for a 3rd round pick it seems like it has come from so many sources that it probably is true. With that being said, this is my prediction of what we will eventually do in the draft, not saying im for it or against it. There have been numerous sources that I have read (don't know if they are necessarily reliable) that even though Albert passed his physical he still has extreme back problems. Even Reid opened up and said that Albert has a "fairly significant injury" in an interview. And he reportedly wants top 5 Left Tackle money which sounds absurd (source check please) because of his back. However, I feel that Reid and Dorsey have no choice but to let Albert walk because of his medical issues. And I have talked to some Eagle fans who agree that Reid does put a premium on left tackles. There are reports also that Reid and Dorsey are "especially high on Luke Joeckel." And forget about the trading back nonsense, that is unrealistic. Especially now with Star Loutietui having a medical issue that could have him possibly drop to the 2nd round. The Eagles will not try to swap picks with us because Eric Fisher is just as good of a prospect as Luke Joeckel (IMO I think Fisher will end up having the better career). And, I myself, A Geno supporter believe he had a good showing at the combine, however it wasn't good enough to show he is a can't miss prospect.
WITH THE #1 PICK OF THE 2013 DRAFT THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SELECT...
LUKE JOECKEL LT TEXAS A&M
Joeckel will most likely put a cap hit of around 3.5-4 million dollars after doing some research, and expecting what Albert would cost would most likely be around a 10 million dollar cap hit for the year we save 6 million on free agency. Obviously Reid and Dorsey need to make this decesion before free agency.
THE #34 OVERALL PICK
This of course is going to be much tougher to forecast. So ill really make two predictions the first one is the obvious, take the BPA at the #34 spot. However, first let me be realistic in telling who absolutely WILL NOT be there at this pick E.J. Manuel, Tavon Austin, and Manti Te'o. Manuel's stock is rising so fast and is gaining momentum he could be as high as the 2nd QB taken I'd be shocked actually if he was available at #34. Tavon Austin there is just no way, too good of a combine. I wouldn't be "shocked" if Te'o was there i just highly doubt it, he has shown people that he is ready to get past the girlfriend fiasco and concentrate on football. I'd be happy taking anyone of these guys in this order...Xavier Rhodes CB, Jonathan Banks CB Jonathan Cyprein S, Alec Ogeltree ILB, Matt Elam S, Arthur Brown ILB, D.J. Swearinger S, Desmond Trufant CB, Tyler Eifert TE, Zach Ertz TE, Tyler Bray QB??? (His stock is rising)
Now i'm trying to be creative and put in a trade scenario for us to acquire E.J. Manuel. I think Reid could do what the Seahawks did last year and bring in a Vet and a rookie and have an all-out competition. I just think it is likely that with the Albert situation we will not be able to take Smith, and will go with BPA. Also bringing in Alex Smith doesn't put too much faith in Geno as number 1 either. There are seven teams that I think could conceivably take a quarterback they are: The Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, Bills, Jets, Vikings, and Texans (could be a long shot but I believe they aren't going anywhere with Schaub). I believe the Jaguars and Raiders will both pass. The Cardinals seem to be in love with Matt Barkley for some reason so I see him coming off the board at #7, Geno Smith will then most likely come off the board at #8. What the jets will do could determine if we trade up for Manuel or not. If Manuel keeps impressing, then the Jets might take a shot at him at #9. Which they really could if Manuel keeps impressing at the rate he is because the Jets I believe will try to shop Revis thus getting more picks to add other talent however, for the sake of this scenario the jets pass. However, I'm really worried about a team with not a lot of needs who wants to develop a QB taking Manuel in the late 1st round because of his immense upside (Texans, Pats) plus the Vikings who are my dark horse for taking a QB such as Manuel. Thankfully the most probable trade partner lies just ahead of the Vikings in the Rams. They need o-line help but will probably address with their first first rounder, then they will probably look for a big #1 WR. However, all the elite prospects will be off the board and they could most likely settle to swap with our picks and pick up someone like Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, or DeAndre Hopkins. We could swap picks and then give them 2nd round pick next year. So I believe we will honestly have to trade up to the #22 pick to grab Manuel.
WITH #22ND PICK OF THE 2013 NFL DRAFT THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SELECT....
E.J. MANUEL QB FLORIDA STATE
However, I really doubt this is gonna happen. I just think honestly we are going to take Joeckel and then BPA #34 (hopefully Manuel if somehow he falls). To all the fans who are wanting a draft with a bunch of trades and hoop-la im sorry but this just will not be your year im guessing. Im also guessing that the Alex Smith trade took our first 3rd round pick instead of our compensation pick at the end of the round. And im really not gonna get into the 4th round and beyond. My hunch is the potential Joeckel pick tells us that the damage will be done in free agency putting into account we cut Cassel (IT WILL HAPPEN DAMNIT PATIENCE FELLOW APERS), and restructure/cut Jackson.
IF I HAD IT MY WAY....
Just draft Geno #1 and roll with Stephenson. He improved a lot as the year went on last year. Then try to trade #34 pick for Revis. Two reasons this will work. First the Jets will want to trade Revis if they see an offer desirable, they were still #2 ranked pass defense without revis on the field last season this tells me if they're smart they would trade revis and make a push to upgrade other positions. Second we would probably be the only team with enough cap to claim Revis that is we cut Cassel and Dorsey.
Who wil be the Chiefs #1 Overall Pick
Geno Smith (30 votes)
Luke Joeckel (43 votes)
We will trade out of it. (30 votes)
103 total votes