We finally got it. We have finally become number one at something. We're number one, we're number one. After almost fifty years in Kansas City, the Chiefs finally have the first pick in the NFL draft. Any player the chiefs want, they can now have. No giving away a fortune in picks to move up and grab the player we want. No more sitting there at ten and crossing our fingers , hoping our guy is still there when we pick. Whoever we want, we can get. And we all know what it is we want.....A QB. A gut that can lead this team to Super Bowl titles. We finally have an opportunity to nab that franchise guy that has eluded this organization since Lenny the cool decided to hang it up. But there is a small problem involved here. All the ''experts '' say that there is not a QB worth the number one pick. What the fu.....!!!!??? You have got to be kidding me !!??
No QB not worth the first pick....just my (bad) luck. You just knew that as a Chiefs fan we would draw the first pick with no clear cut QB that separated himself from the pack. That there isn't one guy that you can say,''he is the man''. It feels like god is playing tricks on us, or he just hates this team. You mean to tell me there isn't a Sam Bradford in this draft? You mean to tell me there isn't a Trent Dilfer in this draft? You mean to tell me there isn't a Christian Ponder, Jake locker, Ryan Tannehill in this draft? Is Mel the comb back Kiper going to look me in the face and tell me that there isn't even a Jamarcus Russel type prospect in this draft????? Are we really considering taking a guard with the first pick? What is the world coming to? I am going to lose my mind!!!!!!
I don't need to go into any detail about how bad the QB play was on the field(or any play for that matter) last year. I felt like with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn starting last season, the Washington Generals had a better chance of winning than we did on Sundays. The only thing I have to say in summation of the QB play last year , is the fact I have been watching football for almost twenty years. I am not proud about this, but I watched the XFL. I watch the CFL, AFL, UFL all levels of NCAA, hell, I even watch high school football if it is on television. Having said all of that, that game by Brady Quinn against Denver in the last game of the season, was hands down, by far, no competition , the worst performance by a QB that I have ever seen at any level ever in my entire life. I remember the Heath Shueler , Billy Joe Hobbert days in new Orleans. I lived through the Brodie Croyle, Tyler Palko , Matt Cassel days in KC. Nothing compares to that indescribably terrible ''effort'' I saw in week seventeen from the QB position. A fitting end to a disaster of a season. Surely there has to be something better than that in this draft
So we are all on the same page as far as wanting change at QB. All (or most ) of us see the QB as the one position that can sink or carry a franchise . But we all have differing opinions on how this should be addressed? I wrote a piece on second round QB's and how they have failed to become franchise QB's over the years. I also asked the question, is there any player truly worth the number one pick. That is, is there anybody that in ten years, we are going to say was A hall of Fame player from this class regardless of position? Obviously, that is something we won't know until these guys start playing. But what if you just had to go by a scouting report? What if you had to put money down that a guy will be enshrined in Canton just by what a Mel Kiper says. If that is the case, is there a guy that fits that bill anywhere in the draft this year? In my opinion no. There isn't a Lawerence Taylor or Anthony Munoz or Deon Sanders or Reggie White in this crop as a prospect. That isn't to say that someone won't turn into one of the best who ever play at his position in this draft. But remember that very key word, prospect. Because a prospect is by definition , not a sure thing.
What exactly is a prospect?
The problem I keep hearing is that there are no QB prospects that are even worth going in the top ten , let alone number one overall in this draft. Guess what, there never is! Not in this year or any year is there a guy that is worth giving millions of dollars to that has never played a down in the NFL. There are always risks involved with every player you take , no matter how good he looks in college or in shorts , or on a chalkboard. If we say that we can only take a sure thing in the draft, there wouldn't be a draft. So you have to take risks and hope they reward you in the end. Take the dating scene for example. You see a girl from afar that you think is attractive (i.e prospect). You don't know anything about her. She could be a total bitch and blow you off. She could be an airhead. She could be a psycho or maybe she is a lot uglier if you get closer to her or maybe she has a boyfriend that will tap you on the shoulder when you start talking to her. Maybe you hook up with her that night. Maybe you date her. Maybe you settle down with her. Point is, you will never know until you actually go up to her and talk to her.
I think too may people on here are afraid of getting hurt . Because we have had our hearts broken time and time again. We feel that we will never get the right one. This goes for life as well as sports. We are just waiting as fans for the other shoe to drop. We are looking for something negative to happen because that is all we know as fans. We need to change that mindset .
I don't do redundant posts. If I feel an issue has been beaten to death, I usually leave it well enough alone. This topic is approaching critical mass as far as being hammered to death . And other fans have have written really in depth posts discussing this very issue. So I really don't have anything new on this subject I can really add. However, I really want to find out if there really is not a QB worthy of a top ten pick(because if you take a guy at ten you would probably take him at one). How does this class stack up against other prospects from other years. This is not a post to lobby for this guy or criticize that guy. I just want to see what the scouts were saying about the QB's from years past But first , a couple notes to digest .
B.P.A VS M.I.P.A
The Vizzini complex
There comes a point in time where the solution to a problem is obvious. The answer is right in front of our face the whole time, yet we ignore it because it is the easy answer. Afterall, what is the fun in that? We want to sound smart and sophisticated . We want to feel we can solve any problem in front of us with our brilliant wit and intellect, rather than than just settle with the obvious solution to a problem. I call this the Vizzini Complex. Or in other words, out thinking the room. For those of you who don't know who Vazzini is, I give you the video above
That scene never gets old does it? But when I watch that scene, it reminds me of the whole BPA argument. Always take the best player available, sounds great in theory. But what happens when you are already loaded at that position? We have Winston , we just took Stephenson with a high pick last year AND we have a top ten tackle already on the roster. So how much of an impact can Joekal have on this team? And that is the keyword here....IMPACT. M.I.P.A or most impactful player available should always come into play. Who is a guy that can come in and make an impact right away?
Is there any LT in this draft that can be a better player than Albert is right now? Chances are no, there isn't a guy close to the level of Albert right now in this draft. Next question, is there a Qb in this draft that is better than Cassel or Quin right now? A guy that can massively upgrade our aenimic passing game? I think there is. Now part of that is the fact our QB situation is the worst in the NFL. But I got to believe that there has to be a guy that can come in and do better than Quinn/Cassel/Stanzi
But even if Joekal is the next Joe Thomas, how much impact can he really have on a team with no QB? So now what, Cassel gets an extra two seconds to stare down a receiver? Even if Joekal is the best player in the draft , his impact will be negligible on this team if Cassel is again the signal caller for this franchise. Put it to you like this, Joe Thomas is a much better football player than Andy Dalton. Thomas is without question the best LT in the NFL. In fact, he may be the best player in the league if you just go by metrics . Andy Dalton is about the fourteenth best QB in the league. Who has a greater impact for their respective team? Well , since the Browns drafted Thomas on 07 , they have yet to sniff the post season. Meanwhile , Dalton has led the Bengels to back to back playoff appearances for the first time since the 80's. A slightly above average QB is worth more to a team than the best LT in the NFL. If even one of these guys turns out to be Andy Dalton , we are in much better shape than if Joekal or Smith or whatever OT you fancy turns out to be the next Joe Thomas
The Jamarcus Russel factor
Then of course you have the Jamarcus Russel fiasco still fresh in the minds of GM/HC's everywhere. Russel was the biggest draft bust of all time . He is a tell tale sign of the price you pay for reaching on a QB too high. He is shining example numero uno of the pitfalls of reaching on need rather than taking the best guy on your board. He is the guy that gives GM's night terrors when it comes to drafting a QB high. So what if our worst fears become reality and Barkley/Smith/Wilson/whoever becomes the next Jamarcus Russel?
First of all, this is a silly fear. Because A; you can't let the most extreme case in any instance dictate how you live your life and the decisions you make. I could break my neck going downstairs to do laundry. So what am I supposed to do, wear the same dirty clothes every day? Of course not . So why should be pass on a guy because he may turn out to be the worst player all time at his position? The odds any of these guys are Jamarcus Russel are a long shot
Not only that, but there were huge red flags concerning Russel all the way back to high school. He was lazy, he lacked instincts, he wasn't a leader. You could see this guy busting out a mile away. Barkley, Wilson, Smith, Nassib , all the top QB's in this draft appear to be strong leaders with a much better understanding of the game than Russel ever had. Geno Smith was probably a better passer his sophmore year than Russel was his last year in Oakland. But lets say that it happens and the QB the Chiefs take is Jamarcus Russel reincarnated . It would be just our luck something like that would happen to us. So then what? Lets look back at that 07 draft and in particular the players Oakland could have had with the second and third pick
Next up , the Lions took Calvin Johnson with the second pick. This was truly BPA concept , as Matt Millan spent three first round picks already on WR talent the last five years. Johnson was a rare Matt Millen hit. He is the best WR in the game today and the best playmaker in the NFL. He just broke Jerry Rice's single season record for receiving yards. He is a beast that will hear his name called in Canton one day. So how much better were the Lions than the Raiders since 07? The Lions have won 29 games since 07. Despite having the best WR in the NFL, the are five games worse then the Raiders in that time
Then you have the Browns who selected Joe Thomas after the Calvin Johnson pick. This one hits home because of all the talk surrounding taking Joekal one overall. Joekal would have a hard time matching Thomas's efficiency the last six years. Thomas has never missed a start in the NFL. He has made the Pro Bowl all six years he has played in the league. If you take QB's out of the picture, he is the best player in the NFL in my own personal opinion. Like Megatron, he will be in Canton one day. So how much better are the Browns over the Raiders in that same time frame? The Browns have won 33 games since 07, one less than the Raiders
So despite drafting the biggest bust of all time at the most important position on the field and despite the Lions and Browns drafting elite, once a decade talents, HOF bound players, the Raiders still have more wins than the Lions and Browns since 07. That tells me that when in doubt, always draft the QB. Because if you don't have one on the roster you are doomed to fail even if you hit home runs at other positions.
But the real question is , are there really no QB's worthy of that top pick?. How about a top ten pick ? How can this class be worse than the other classes from years past? Since the experts agree that there is no guy worth even a first round pick, these guys have to be worse than other guys from years past....right
Mystery QB prospect number one. Who am I
good size and bulk for the position
experienced starter for a big time program
good accuracy and feel for the passing game
has a solid NFL arm
known as a player with great character and leadership skills
quick release and a nice over the top delivery
seen as having great football IQ
gym rat and film junky
doesn't have great arm strength
mechanics tend to break down on the run
makes questionable decisions with the ball at times
isn't elite in any category
doesn't have much experience playing in cold weather
has had shoulder injuries
had a disappointing senior season
This guy sounds a lot to me like Matt Barkley. Good but not great at anything. Smart kid that played in a warm weather conference. Has some durability concerns , good leader. Not as good as senior as people though he would.Who is this guy?
answer;Christian Ponder Florida State
Christian Ponder vs Matt Barkley as prospects
All in all I would say Barkley and Ponder are pretty similar college prospects. I would say Barkley has more big game experience than Ponder. Ponder is a better athlete. But both played in warm weather, both are about the same size, both have about the same level of arm strength and both have had shoulder injuries. So who is the better prospect? Who would have been taken higher? Barkley was considered to be a Heisman candidate and the first overall pick at one point, Ponder was not. Barkley is a more accurate passer(albeit slightly) and overall more productive at the collegiate level. If Barkley was in the 2011 draft, I think he goes over Ponder. Ponder never impressed me at FSU, while Matt has impressed me some at USC. Barkley is a better prospect than Ponder was in my opinion
Mystery QB prospect number 2, who am I?
powerful, thick frame
has great arm strength
very good open field runner
has a quick delivery
excellent when throwing on the run
strong character and work ethic
has a ton of upside
runs too soon at times
can lock on to one receiver at times
comes from a one read offense
has some mechanical issues
raw and unpolished as a passer
needs a lot of coaching at the next level
Lets see here.....this has to be EJ Manuel. A raw but talented QB , who with the right coaching could be the next Colin Kappernick. A guy that got by with his athleticism in college and will need to refine his passing skills at the next level to be successful. Am I right?
answer;Jake Locker Washington
Jake Locker vs EJ Manuel as prospects
Manuel and Locker are almost identical prospects in my opinion. Manuel is a little more athletic and I would say Locker is narrowly better as a passer. But both are long term project guys. Neither was/is a guy that is going to take over a team right away. They both need some polishing up in order to reach their potential at the next level. So can we say that Locker was a much better prospect than Manuel is? I don't think Locker was. He never impressed me at all at Washington. So if TN had a choice between the two, flip a coin because you are getting roughly the same guy
Mystery QB prospect number 3. Who am I?
strong enough arm to make all the necessary throws
above average athleticism for the position
played through adversity his final season
tough kid that will play hurt
very accurate to short to intermediate range
very good intangibles
has proven he can lead a team on his back
good anticipation on throws
production tailed off his final season
can get ancy in the pocket
played mainly out of the shotgun
has had injuries
could be a system QB
relies too much on arm strength at times
can force throws
If I would have read this and guessed, I would say this is the scouting report for Tyler Wilson. I am big on Wilson. I think he is the best overall QB prospect in the draft. But the knock I hear on him is he escapes the pocket too quick. That he forces throws. People are worried about his concussion(s) etc... I think a lot of that is overstated , but nevertheless , those are criticisms I hear regularly when Wilson's name is brought up. I also hear about the fact he is tough and will play hurt . Teammates rave about his work ethic . So who is this mystery QB
answer ; Blaine Gabbert Missouri
Blaine Gabbert VS Tyler Wilson the prospect
This one is kind of personal for me. Like I said, I think Wilson is the best QB prospect in this draft. I also am a born and raised MU fan. So I saw a lot of Gabbert when he played at MU. I don't think Gabbert is a perfect comparison to Wilson, rather, he is the closest guy I can compare him to the last three drafts. Gabbert was a guy that you watched and thought, he should be better than what he was. He always seemed to leave you with the feeling he left a little on the field. I don't get that with Tyler. I feel he almost does too much to help his team win. I think Wilson is tougher . I think Wilson is a better leader. I think Wilson is a better athlete. There are definatley similarities between the two. But Wilson is the better prospect in my opinion. But make no mistake, Gabbert was not a bad prospect. He has talent. He went to a bad team in Jacksonville. Can you name me the last two coaches the Jags had? . What would have happened if Gabbert went to a good team with good coaching? I would say Wilson is the better of the two as a prospect. That is just an opinion from a Tigers fan that saw Gabbert play a ton
Mystery QB prospect number 4. Who am I?
NfL arm, can make every throw
able to extend plays and run for first downs
raises the play of others around him
picks things up quickly
accuracy is just average
needs work on his throwing motion
at times easily rattled in the pocket
didn't have great production in college
This kind of sounds like Ryan Nassib does it not? Nassib is a proven winner that makes others around him better. He has the arm and athletic ability to be a franchise QB. But he does have a hitch in his delivery that needs to be corrected. But Nassib is a sleeper in the draft that could rocket up draft boards.
Answer; Ryan Tannehill Texas A and M
Nassib vs Tannehill the prospect
Again, much like the Tyler Wilson to Blaine Gabbert comparison , this one isn't perfect. There are many similarities between the two players. But there are also may dis similarities as well. Nassib is a much more experienced passer than Tannehill was . Tannehill only had a year and a half at QB. Nassib was a three year starter at Syracuse. So that begs the question, who is the better prospect? That depends on your definition of better. Tannehill had more upside. But Nassib is much more polished and pro ready coming into the draft. If Nassib was on the table, would the dolphins have picked him? Nassib is a less risky pick and remember, Tannehill was also coming off foot surgery. Tannehill may be the better talent but Nassib is the better pro prospect right now. At worst it is a push, but I lean toward Nassib being the better prospect
Mystery QB prospect number 5. Who am I
showed improvement over time
very good touch on the ball
better athlete than given credit for
tremendous college production
takes well to coaching
very good deep ball
production could be a byproduct of QB friendly system
took most of his snaps out of a shotgun
doesn't always feel the pressure
takes unnecessary hits/sacks
not asked to make many pre snap reads
kind of a quiet demeanor
This has to be Geno Smith. Smith came from a spread offense and put up video game like numbers at WV. Smith has a good arm and mobility, but lacks some pocket awareness that leads to some costly sacks. Smith is more of a quiet leader than a Manning or Brady . He does have a pretty deep ball and is very accurate. If I had to guess, that is the guy I would say this scouting report describes
answer; Sam Bradford Oklahoma
Bradford vs Geno Smith the prospect
Bradford and Smith both came from similar systems in college. Both spent most of their time in the shotgun. Both put up great numbers at major programs. So is Bradford a better prospect than Smith? Nothing I saw out of Bradford at Oklahoma would lead me to believe he is a better prospect than Geno Smith is. Smith has more starts . Smith didn't have the shoulder injury Bradford had. Bradford is a little taller than Smith, although I don't see that to be an issue. Smith is a little more mobile , the arm strength is about the same. I see no reason why the Rams wouldn't have taken Smith number one had he been available that year if they took Bradford with the first pick in 2010
I have looked at some of the highly drafted QB's of the past three years and compared their scouting reports with guys in this draft and I can't come up with a reason why none of these guys are worth the number one pick. At worst it was a push between the two prospects and in some instances the QB's this year fared better than their QB counterparts from previous years. So why all the hate on this years crop? I think this years group is better as a whole than that of 2011. So what's the problem? I know most of these guys went past the first pick. But what if they were there at one? what if a team had to pull the trigger on a Jake Locker. Would a team do it? I think they would. especially in the new CBA where having the top pick isn't the financial death sentence it was just three years ago
It just seems to me that scouts are just looking for a reason not to like a guy. They don't want to get it wrong at QB. So they are letting fear dictate their belief on who they should take in April
We have the top pick now. We don't know what the future holds. We don't know if we can get the top guy in next years draft or the next years draft. It is time to pull the trigger now. If the guy busts , he busts. You get back on the horse and try again. Because you are doomed to fail as a team if you don't have that franchise guy. Even if you hit a homerun on another position