Sometime in the last week or so I got in a discussion on twitter about Matt Miller’s view on who the Chiefs should take with the #1 pick. I would like to preface this whole article with a note that my entire interaction with Miller has been on twitter (I have tried to read his stuff on bleacher report, but I despise the slide show format) and twitter is extremely limited when it comes to being able to communicate in depth ideas. So when I summarize (my perception of) his viewpoint, I will admit that it isn’t a complete summation. His viewpoint is that currently Brandon Albert is a Free Agent (which he is) and that the Chiefs should not sign him at all because Joeckel is the greatest tackle that Miller has ever scouted (actually his words).
I disagree wholeheartedly, especially on the expectation that someone who has never seen a down of professional football should be considered as a sure thing that he will be the GOAT. While I am quite guilty of perhaps using unnecessarily colorful words to describe Mr. Miller, I do believe that not only is his trust in his projection faulty, but also his sense of logic. I will attempt to lay out all of the scenarios that I see happening with the Chiefs pick, but only in reference to Albert and Joeckel.
The first scenario is that Albert wants to be paid like the best LT in the business, the Chiefs refuse, Albert walks, and we draft Joeckel. To me this is the unlikeliest scenario, as Albert should be smart enough to know that he isn’t quite the best out there, and won’t get that money from anyone. The second scenario, which is the one Miller seems to have all of his chips on happening, is that Albert wants top 5 LT money, the Chiefs refuse, Albert walks, and we draft Joeckel. For those of you who do not think Albert is not a top 5 LT (I have seen some arguments that make sense) it isn’t about how much he is worth. The market dictates his salary, and the market for a solid LT will be worth the top 5 money we would need to pay him. Now, you should notice that both of my scenarios that involve Albert walking, we draft Joeckel. If Albert does not sign with us in the FA period, Joeckel becomes an acceptable pick. The difference between the two is that in the first, Albert is the one who leaves, while in the second it is the Chiefs letting him go. Big difference, but I don’t see either of these happening.
The third scenario is that the Chiefs do not even attempt to sign Albert, draft Joeckel. This would be career suicide for Dorsey, as he would be the guy who let an established veteran go just to hope for the best for someone who hasn’t done anything yet. That is not good PR, no matter how to twist it. Fourth scenario. Chiefs sign Albert, draft Joeckel, and move Albert to Guard. This will not happen, and judging by his twitter account, I would guess that if the Chiefs try this, Albert would refuse to report to camp. So, the real fourth scenario. Although he has passed a physical, Chiefs are still a bit worried about Albert’s back so they use the franchise tag on him. Either he plays well or he doesn’t and it becomes an issue for next year. Chiefs draft someone else not named Joeckel. (Note: I am not even coming close to speculating as to who that other person may be. This article is not addressing that aspect of things.) And I’m sure most of you can guess the final scenario. The Chiefs sign Albert and draft someone else. I am thinking the fourth scenario is the most likely as it gives Albert a chance to prove himself healthy while protecting the Chiefs somewhat, but then I do not work in football at all. I just pretend like everyone else on here. (Second note: if the Chiefs sign or tag Albert, they will not draft Joeckel. There is just no way in hell that you can justify this decision whatsoever.)
So finally, and to get at the true heart of my annoyance for anything Matt Miller says, I will give you a little fake scenario. Let’s say you are a student in high school. And on your last report card you got an A in English, a C in Math, and F in History and a B in Science. What is the most effective subject that you could work on to raise your GPA? History right? Well lets translate that, and make your English grade the Chiefs RB situation, the Math grade the CB situation, the F of course is the QB position, and the Science grade equates to the LT position. Although, yes an A is higher than a B, your teachers are going to consider you a blubbering idiot for focusing on improving your grade in Science when you are so far behind in History.
I get that Miller is just listening to his sources, and I get that a lot of sources were claiming that the Chiefs were going to let Albert walk. But everyone has a reason for giving away trade secrets, and it usually has to do with currying favor or making some money. Honestly the only guy out there who gets things right more often than not is Adam Schefter, so unless he is saying something, I don’t believe it. And for Matt Miller, take what you hear, no matter who you hear it from, with a grain of salt. Work your way logically through the possibilities of what could happen and you will look like an idiot less often.