A Little Luck has Spread the Plague

Firstly, I want to quickly condemn you, Mr. Andrew Austin Luck, for having infected the entirety of draft analysts, experts, gurus, fans and crackpots across the world with the Unrealistic Expectations Epidemic. The symptoms include loss of reasoning and analytical skills necessary to perform one's duty as an informed and respected representative of scouting the droves of potential professional football players and failure of the fan's ability to recognize what's best for their own good. You are the Typhoid Mary of the NFL Draft, sending the Chimera Virus into the brains of the initiated and uninitiated alike. Luckily for them, there is a cure, a modern day Bellerophon ready to combat this evil, and his name is Geno the Great. He is fighting for all current and future QB prospects mired in the walking dead of expert judgment filled with Luck-ness.

What has happened to this draft season's landscape is the direct result of scouts, analysts and fans expecting every QB prospect to be as pro ready as Andrew Luck was at this time last year. When tape is viewed of Luck and Geno Smith and the other 2013 QB prospects, what is seen through their collegiate careers isn't the same as what they saw through Luck's collegiate career, and the simple and utterly baseless deduction from this is that they are very risky prospects with at least 25 other above average-average prospects at other positions being far better players with less risk than they are in this draft. The "Luck Hangover" as clearly defined as you can get.

So let's leave this vicious and highly infectious player/draft of 2012 where it is, and let's travel back to 2011 and before, when drafts and times were free of this cataclysmic disease and much clearer. Let's ask one question about the top QB prospect in this draft without 2012 in mind: with everything you have seen from Geno and in retrospect of the last 5 drafts (again, pre-2012), can you honestly say he wouldn't have been one of the top 3, if not the #1 QB prospect and at least a top 25 prospect overall in each of those drafts? No one is claiming this draft is stacked with talent at highly valued positions, yet Geno can't crack the top 25?

Top 3 QB picks in Draft per Year (Kiper's Big Board ranking at some point during the draft process of their respective year), scouting reports provided by,, and linked on name (2007 players' scouting reports were hard to find, so feel free to peruse any search engine for them yourselves, but the names alone are recognizable enough for intensive purposes here):

2007- JaMarcus Russell (4), Brady Quinn (5), Kevin Kolb

2008- Matt Ryan (4), Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm (20)

2009- Matt Stafford (6), Mark Sanchez (8), Josh Freeman

2010- Sam Bradford (5), Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen (4)

2011- Cam Newton (15), Jake Locker (25), Blaine Gabbert (14)

We can amazingly find names like Colt McCoy at #25, Dennis Dixon at #23, and Andre Woodson at #17 at times as well (obviously earlier in the process, but still relevant). Currently, Geno is not ranked as a top 25 prospect on Kiper's Big Board. I challenge anyone, including and especially the infected experts like Kiper, Todd McShay, Mike Mayock, etc., to argue that Geno wouldn't have fit somewhere amongst those names overall, if not at the head of them. I know those experts read AP religiously, so its time to stop hiding in anonymity, come out of your red-marked home, empty your pockets full of posies, join the rest of the sick, and allow serum WVQB #12 to be injected into your bloodstream and eliminate your ailments.

Can you imagine the claim that Geno can't hold a candle to Cam as an NFL prospect at the QB position? I'm anticipating with childlike glee the opinions that Geno was behind Bradford in every facet of the game, including health, offensive scheme they ran, and stats. Seriously, Geno wouldn't have been somewhere in the top 25 players in 2009??? Obviously, Geno can't turn water to wine, so he's well below Tebow in that ranking.

The point is everyone has to get back to reality at some point. Someone recently said on AP, paraphrasing here, that it is correct that this QB draft class isn't 2012, it's now back to normal. You can argue all day about why and how Stafford, Bradford, and Cam aren't elite franchise QBs, or point out the massive failures of Russell, Quinn, Clausen, and Tebow as a reason not to draft a QB high, or even use Flacco as an example of not needing to draft a QB #1 overall and find success (or go deeper into 2011 and note Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick being drafted in the 2nd round). But none of that changes the fact what Geno represents in his game film, in comparison to these same players: a prospect just as accomplished with similar tangibles/intangibles and the tragedy of him not being ranked just as highly overall in this class. And it definitely doesn't change the fact that everyone of us would have taken the majority of these QB prospects every year in the first round if we were in a position to get them and had the need for a QB that we do right now.

I personally don't buy into a lot of what the talking heads and media names say about these players. I know that the players are out to impress the GMs in the scouting process, not the journalists looking for material worth reading. We fans can claim anything we want without reason or justification and sleep at night, but can we really accept the paid professional scouts that put their faces on the TVs and their names on publications with these claims that they have determined that Geno, like I said above, in a weak class, isn't as good as these "high potential prospects" like Eric Fisher, Jonathan Cooper, Sylvester Williams, and Kawann Short? Can we comprehend their reasoning that a team as QB-starved as the Kansas City Chiefs would be ill-advised to take Geno #1 overall when those same names felt it was painfully obvious that Bradford, Stafford and Newton/Gabbert would go #1 overall to just as QB-starved teams in their respective years? Is it possible to believe that Andrew Luck has altered an entire industry's thought process and set a bar so high that no prospect in 20 years will obtain their blessing to be "worthy"?

Enough questions. It's evident in my eyes Geno likely wouldn't have been the #1 QB in 2012 over Luck. It would have been hard to top him in his abilities, intelligence, and pro-readiness. However, I am 99.9% certain that before the biological weapon dropped his payload on the minds of the media scouts, Geno is widely considered one of the top 2 QBs in at least 4 of the 5 drafts from 2007-2011, ranked as a top 15 player overall, goes high-mid 1st round at worst, and should be in strong consideration across many more forums as a top ten prospect overall well-worth the #1 pick for the Chiefs in this draft. You don't believe me? Then it's safe to say that you are in desperate need of a strong dose of Geno to ward off that case of the Lucks. With that said, I have coined Geno's new nickname to be "The Cure" (trademark pending).

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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