I have gone over so much crap trying to figure out who I want under center next year that my mouse finger is numb. Mostly I have gone back and forth between the Smiths. Geno is the best draft prospect at QB by almost every account, so take him at #1 whether it's a gigantic reach with above average bust potential or not. No, wait, we can't just waste the pick on a guy 10 times as likely to be a Mark Sanchez than a Matt Ryan (and no real likelihood of being a Manning or a Brady.) Alex Smith is a former #1 who has been to the NFC Championship game, finished the year #7 in the new QBR, and can be had for a mid round pick. No, wait, he can't even bust 200 yards twice in a row and without Harbaugh and the 9er D he'll just be Cassel part deux... OK screw the Smiths I'm trading down.
It can't be done you say. Nobody will pay for the #1 pick. There's not a player anybody wants bad enough. I disagree. I think we can trade down. In fact I think it can be done twice. Here's my plan...
I concentrate on three players pre-draft. I invite them for private workouts. I feed them barbeque. I wine and dine their parents. I have contract talks with their agents (yeah I know that's meaningless in the new CBA and I don't care.) I have real estate guys take them on tours of KC homes and make sure ESPN knows about it all. These three guys are all a smokescreen, and they are Luke Joeckel, Geno Smith, and Mike Glennon.
My first trade down target is the Eagles. They need Joeckel. No matter who they start at QB next year he's going to be running for his life if they don't get him a blocker. They just renegotiaed Vick for this year, so he's the guy. But even if Kelly has his eye on a long term replacement, it's a later pick and Joeckel has to be their target. We threaten to take Joeckel, and tell them we hear Jax will even if we don't. They'll bite. They almost have to. I want their first, second, Foles, and either their third this year or a second in 2014. More than fair on the charts from their side and works for the Chiefs because Foles can hold down the fort for ten games and mentor the rookie (I'm drafting later) in Reid's system. Who knows, maybe he kicks ass and starts the entire year and becomes trade bait. Even if he's just mediocre he's a decent backup and knows what Reid wants. That puts us at #4 and gives us two picks in the top 5 of the second, and maybe the third too.
Now I shift my attention to the Bills at #8. They want a QB, and have already even said they will trade up to get him. Maybe Jax takes Geno at #2 and we're selling Glennon. Maybe they don't and we're selling Smith and Glennon. Either way I'm "leaning" toward whichever I think they like better, while also pointing out to them that Cleveland and Arizona are also potential landing spots for a QB at 6 and 7. All they have to give up is #8 and their second rounder. Not bad on the chart and shouldn't be that hard of a sell. Now we have the eighth pick, along with 34, 35, and 41 (that's 2, 3, and 9) in the second round.
Eric Fisher might fall to 8 if we don't keep Albert. My personal prefernce would be to extend Bowe and Colquit, then put the tag on Albert. I'm not giving him $50M until I know how his back plays out anyway. Plus, if we tag him and Fisher falls, we can trade Albert off on draft day. I don't think a low 1st rounder or (anothet) high second would be too hard to come by. If Fisher goes in the top seven, then pay Albert for a year on the tag and re-evaluate his situation during the year. In that case, either Millner or Vaccaro will be there to shore up our secondary...
Then we can get our QB in the second. I would be ok with Barkley at 34, and he's probably there. I would actually rather have Manuel personally, and he might fall to 41. If it doesn't look like one will fall, we would have plenty of ammo to move back into the first to grab him, but I think we can get Manuel in the second and that's my play.
With three picks in the top ten of the second, we'll get a couple more probable starters on top of Fisher/Millner/Vaccaro and our future QB. Maybe Teo falls. Maybe Elam if we don't end up with Vaccaro, or Trufant if we don't end up with Millner. DeAndre Hopkins or Terrance Williams, if we don't extend Bowe, could help at WR. But a couple of solid guys regardless. Or another trade down in the second to pick up another third (and we might already have two top 5 third rounders depending on exactly how the Philly trade plays out.) I think it can be done, and would be the smart play the way this class looks at this point. Thoughts?