FanPost

Approximate Value

Now let me explain exactly what the list is. Remember that AV puts a number of every player-season. My opinion is that most people mentally rank players by counting all the players' seasons, but weighting their best seasons more. In order to mimic that, I've defined each player's approximate career "value" to be:

100% of his best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus, ....

So, for two players with the same career AV total, the one with the higher peak will be rated a little higher. And junk seasons at the end of a player's career count for almost nothing.

Players are only eligible for the list if their career started in 1970 or later. Here it is:

  1 Reggie White             165
  2 Jerry Rice               153
  3 Dan Marino               152
  4 Brett Favre              149
  5 Bruce Smith              144
  6 Lawrence Taylor          142
  7 John Elway               141
  8 Peyton Manning           138

NOTE FOR PEOPLE WHO SKIPPED STRAIGHT DOWN TO THE LIST WITHOUT READING THE POST: the author of the algorithm that generated this list does not agree with the entirety of the list. He, in fact, acknowledges that it's obviously wrong in spots. He does think it's pretty respectable, given the difficulty of comparing players across positions and eras using only objective data. He also thinks it'll give us something to talk about here in May.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=525

I shouldn’t post this: Approximate value top 200

Posted by Doug on May 11, 2008

Peyton-manning-495x340_medium

via www.betterlivingthroughbeowulf.com

Well who the hell knew he was gong to be such a player? 138 in 2008. 165 now. #1 NFL player since 1950 according to www.pro-football-reference.com.

Peyton Manning statistically is having his greatest season of his too long career this year.

Peyton is not the point of this post, though he might be the pinnacle of what every NFL player strives to be.

Where do our Chiefs players rank on this mythical list. 165 seems to be the current top. First the historical players. Everyone of them drafted by the Chiefs franchise. Some did not sign with us :(

Drafted Year - Round - Pick - Player - Position - Retired - Approximate Value - College

  • 1993 3 74 Will Shields G 2006 113 Nebraska
  • 1961 2 14 Bob Lilly HOF DT 1974 108 TCU
  • 1989 1 4 Derrick Thomas HOF LB 1999 105 Alabama
  • 1964 16 122 Roger Staubach HOF QB 1979 105 Navy
  • 1963 7 56 Bobby Bell HOF LB 1974 102 Minnesota
  • 1988 1 2 Neil Smith DE 2000 95 Nebraska
  • 1961 3 22 Jim Tyrer T 1974 95 Ohio St.
  • 1963 1 1 Buck Buchanan HOF DT 1975 93 Grambling St.
  • 1967 2 50 Willie Lanier HOF LB 1977 88 Morgan St.
  • 1983 3 61 Albert Lewis DB 1998 80 Grambling St.
  • 1965 4 29 Otis Taylor WR 1975 80 Prairie View

1997 1 13 Tony Gonzalez TE 2013 95 California

2004 4 126 Jared Allen DE 2013 89 Idaho St.

Why does any of this matter? I might not but it does allow someone to compare NFL players across generations and positions. The original aim of the rating system. How bout them Chiefs?

2012 1 11 Dontari Poe DT 2013 6 Memphis

2012 2 44 Jeff Allen T 2013 4 Illinois

2012 3 74 Donald Stephenson T 2013 3 Oklahoma

2012 6 182 Cyrus Gray RB 2013 0 Texas A&M

2012 7 238 Junior Hemingway WR 2013 0 Michigan

2011 2 55 Rodney Hudson OL 2013 2 Florida St.

2011 3 70 Justin Houston LB 2013 12 Georgia

2011 3 86 Allen Bailey DL 2013 3 Miami (FL)

2011 6 199 Jerrell Powe DL 2012 1 Mississippi

2010 1 5 Eric Berry DB 2013 19 Tennessee

2010 2 36 Dexter McCluster WR 2013 10 Mississippi

2010 3 68 Jon Asamoah G 2013 9 Illinois

2009 1 3 Tyson Jackson DE 2013 21 LSU

2009 2 61 Sean Smith DB 2013 23 Utah*

2009 7 256 Ryan Succop K 2013 11 South Carolina

2008 1 15 Branden Albert G 2013 24 Virginia

2008 2 35 Brandon Flowers DB 2013 30 Virginia Tech

2008 3 73 Jamaal Charles RB 2013 37 Texas

2008 7 241 Geoff Schwartz T 2013 8 Oregon*

2007 1 23 Dwayne Bowe WR 2013 39 LSU

2006 1 20 Tamba Hali DE 2013 51 Penn St.

2006 2 53 Anthony Fasano TE 2013 19 Notre Dame*

2005 1 1 Alex Smith QB 2013 36 Utah*

2005 1 15 Derrick O. Johnson LB 2013 55 Texas

2005 3 99 Dustin Colquitt P 2013 17 Tennessee

2004 1 10 Dunta Robinson DB 2013 42 South Carolina*

Derrick Johnson Leads the way. Tamba Hali is close behind. The current year is not included in these scores. non-drafted Chiefs players *

Go Chiefs

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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