FanPost

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: The Opening Line

Jamie Squire

From the FanPosts -Joel

Greetings once again fans of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs! (I do not get tired of writing that each week) After defeating the New York Giants on Sunday, the Chiefs will travel to face the 3-1 Tennessee Titans. The Titans are fresh off of a dismantling of Geno Smith and the New York Jets by a score of 38-13 and look to stay atop the AFC South for another week.

Before the season, you would be hard pressed to find anyone who would have predicted that this matchup would be one of the must-see games of Week 5. Nonetheless it is, and will be vital for both teams as they move forward and try to make a playoff run. The major storyline going into the game though is the injury to Titans quarterback Jake Locker. Up until this point, he was having a career year and if you venture over to the Music City Miracles site, you can see just how big of a blow this is to the Titans from a fan perspective. In my opinion, the injury will be the difference in the result of this game.

Out west in Las Vegas, the thoughts on this game have shifted a bit as well. Try and follow along if you will and we will see how we got to where the line is at right now. Late in each week, a preliminary line is released on most online books and it can be wagered on, but with restrictions (i.e. $2000 max). When that line was released last week the Titans were actually 1 point favorites and the total was at 41.5. That line quickly shifted based on early action and heading into the weekend, Kansas City had become a 1 point favorite. Fast forward through Sunday's action, and the game was taken off the board due to the injury to Jake Locker. Once the line was re-opened, it opened with Kansas City as a 2.5 point favorite and the total remained at 41.5. Since then, it has largely stayed at 2.5, but there are some casinos and offshore books offering 3 right now. This could be in large part due to the 80% of bets having been placed on KC so far, out of almost 4,000 online wagers.The one big move is with the total, as it has moved to 39 in most places and even as low as 38.5 in others. This move does not shock me, as two solid defenses will be matching up and points should be hard to come by.

The line seems solid to me where it is right now. If Locker were playing and the spread was 3, I would be most likely on Tennessee. Fitzpatrick, while a veteran presence, is not the same player as Locker and the spread accounts for it. Is he 3 or 4 points worse than Locker? I don't know. But I think it's safe to say the Chiefs' road to victory got easier with the QB change. Let's see if there are any viable trends in this matchup:

As I have said each week (though some readers occasionally miss this caveat), take trends with a grain of salt. Some trends can be predictive. Others are just coincidence. Tread wisely.

  • Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.

  • Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

  • Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.

  • Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

  • Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Titans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
  • Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Titans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
  • Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Chiefs last 6 road games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games following a S.U. win.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 7-1-1 in Chiefs last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 23-5-1 in Chiefs last 29 games on grass.
  • Under is 13-3-1 in Chiefs last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in October.
  • Under is 12-3-1 in Chiefs last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
  • Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 6-1 in Titans last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Again, some of these can be used to draw conclusions, others are kind of fun facts. It is worth noting that the under has a lot more tendencies than the over between these two teams. Well, there you have it for another week. Two teams enter, one will leave still atop their division. Who will it be? My hope is the Chiefs, but we shall see soon enough. For now, thanks for reading! As always, leave your feedback in the comments and this has been yet another edition of The Opening Line.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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