This analysis is based on offensive snaps watched from five games of all these quarterbacks prospects and also based on many scouting reports in the web, mostly from NFL.COM, SBNATION.COM and CBSSPORTS.COM.
I chose mostly bowl games, games against top 30 defenses (some are top 50 defenses) and against ranked teams. I will evaluate the strengths and weakness from every prospect and give a personal analysis from a Chiefs fan point of view.
The quarterbacks were chosen based on uarterbacks based on NFL.com, CBSSports.com, SI.com and SBNation.com.
Games watched: 2009 #5 Ohio State (#5 ranked defense), 2010 #4 Stanford (#25 ranked defense), 2011 California (#28 ranked defense), 2011 #4 Oregon, 2012 Stanford (#21 ranked defense).
Barkley is a really good prospect; he is ready to start in the NFL right away, he played in a pro-style offense is whole college career and take most snaps under center. He is better than most people think. He has great footwork and his sideline passes are really good, putting the ball in the perfect place for the receiver to catch it. The concern with him is that his size is not the ideal for the NFL and the lack of arm-strength, his arm is not elite but he can make all the throws. The deep throws could have better accuracy and most of the plays he made where short passes and then the receivers got a lot of yards on the run. He had a great supporting cast, but that’s what he will have in the NFL. What I really like was that he improved every season; he showed better leadership in the last two seasons and improved his reading on the defense. That shows that he still has room to improve and could be great.
In his senior season, he had lots of troubles with injuries and a really bad O-line, he lost confidence in his throws, depending almost on short throws, but still managed to put very good numbers.
He will be a really good QB in the west coast offense and is projected to be a very good game manager with possibilities to be a star.
He is a top 10 talent and it’s a very good option for the number one pick to the Chiefs with Andy Reid (running the west coast offense in KC) making the choice.
Games watched: 2010 North Carolina (Music City Bowl), 2011 #19 Georgia (#3 ranked defense), 2012 #7 Georgia (#27 ranked defense), 2012 #3 Florida (#5 ranked defense), 2012 #10 South Carolina (#12 ranked defense).
He seems like a Jay Cutler type of guy, with his quick release and big arm, a gunslinger. He could be a first round pick with his performance in the combine, but he is not ready to start right away in the NFL. Many coaches will love his tools but he needs a lot of work mostly because of his lack of maturity and leadership. Poor decisions in the field led him to throw interceptions, but many of those also came in part of poor hands of his receivers. He didn’t have a great supporting cast like Barkley but mostly had a good O-line. He probably is going to make bad decisions when get pressure. Love his willingness to make the big throw in many plays, he relies heavily in is arm to make the big throw but many times this lead to bad throws and interceptions. He didn’t lock too often on his receivers but also didn’t have patience to wait for a receiver to be open. He reminds me of Brady sometimes with his stand in the pocket and good eyes down field.
Bray has first-round talent, but his problems with maturity and leadership will drop him to second or even third round. I would love if the Chiefs find him in the third and let him groom with Reid as HC but probably a team is going to pull the trigger in the early second round or even first round on him.
Games watched: 2012 Ohio, 2012 Ohio State (#36 ranked defense), 2012 #25 Kent State, 2012 #19 Boise State (#19 ranked defense).
Dysert is a good prospect in terms of experience, started in all of his four years in college and produced well despite having a poor supporting cast. He has great football IQ, knows his players too well and takes the most of their abilities. He is the type of player that will throw picks at the next level, but he will also move you down the field. He reminds me of Kyle Orton, he could be a great backup but with good coaching could be a reliable starter. In terms of making pre-snap reads and audibles, Miami’s coaches have as much faith in him as Indy’s coaches had in Peyton Manning for the first decade of the millennium.
He will be great value in the third or fourth round, has lots of good tools and experience that can be good valued by scouts. He will not ‘wow’ you with his abilities but won’t make many mistakes in the field.
Like I said, Dysert could be great value in the third for the Chiefs but will not be an instant starter; he needs to be groom but doesn’t have a high ceiling like other prospects.
Games watched: 2011 #22 Clemson, 2011 Louisville (Belk Bowl, #24 ranked defense), 2012 Miami (#47 ranked defense). 2012 #12 Florida State (#2 ranked defense), 2012 #14 Clemson.
Glennon is a strong-armed passer but not necessary a gunslinger. He is big and can make all the throws. He could be an instant starter in the NFL, but has problems with his reads and struggled handling the pressure. He could be really good with good coaching and can develop into a star in the NFL but still needs time to that. He is not as ready as Barkley or Smith but would be a good choice for the Chiefs if they traded back to the middle of the first round. He has a high ceiling and would be a great pickup to develop sitting him in the first year if Reid decides to bring a veteran.
He would ‘wow’ a lot of scouts in the combine with his ability on long passes, has a great arm and was great bringing his team from behind in many games. He definitely is a first round talent in this draft.
Games watched: 2010 #20 Nebraska (#11 ranked defense), 2011 Florida State (#6 ranked defense), 2011 Texas (15 ranked defense), 2012 UTEP, 2012 Iowa State.
The best word to describe Landry Jones is ‘average’, NFL.COM compares him to Matt Cassel and that tells everything you need to know about this guy. If someone told me that a quarterback prospect has been compare to Matt Cassel then that quarterback has some major problems. I personally think that Jones is a middle of the road prospect that could be a good backup in the NFL. He has very good arm strength and has improved in his final season but his major flaw, inconsistency, is a big problem.
He could be very good if a really good coach take him and groom him; maybe Andy Reid could pull the trigger on him, but in the third round not early. He has the size, the arm and the experience but his flaws on inconsistency, decision making and the lacking ability at reading defenses will do damage on his draft stock.
He is a fourth round talent.
Games watched: 2011 Miami (#47 ranked defense), 2012 Virginia Tech (#25 ranked defense), 2012 #14 Clemson, 2012 Wake Forest.
E.J. Manuel is a good prospect that many believed this guy was the next RGIII; well, he produced but not as well as RGIII. He has some similarities with RGIII, a strong arm, great mobility and very good accuracy in deep throws but he doesn’t have the decision making ability that made RGIII a top 5 draft pick. He often tried to do too much and failed with his ability to read the defense. He has the best physical skills of any quarterback on this list and that could be something good having Andy Reid to coach him if the Chiefs decide to take him, but he is not in the mold of a west coast passer.
He has many question marks but still is a very good prospect. I think he could be a very good pickup in the fourth round.
Games watched: 2011 #9 South Carolina (#4 ranked defense), 2011 #12 Michigan State (Outback Bowl, #5 ranked defense), 2012 Vanderbilt (#17 ranked defense), 2012 #2 Alabama (#1 ranked defense), 2012 Georgia Tech.
When I was doing this analysis it was just announced that Aaron Murray will return for his senior year so, I didn’t want my time to be lost so I’ll decided to finish the analysis.
Murray has the potential to be a first rounder, but his poor decision making and his inconsistency may hurt him in the draft, that’s why I think he made the best decision when decided to stay in college one more year. If he continues to improve he certainly will be a first round pick in 2014. One of the major concerns about Murray coming this year was his inconsistency, something he’ll need to work on. He made beautiful throws then awful ones, he was Manning in one drive and then Palko in the next one. But his intangibles are very good, with a clean pocket he can throw to every part of the field with good touch and good accuracy.
To me, if he would decide to declare for this year’s draft, Murray would be a second round pick with the possibility to be picked in the first round by some desperate team.
Games watched: 2012 #21 Louisville (#23 ranked defense), 2012 Rutgers (#14 ranked defense), 2012 USC, 2012 Missouri.
Nassib lacks of size will make him drop many spots in the draft. But the biggest concern with Nassib is his decision-making and his impatience when feeling the rush, he tries to do too much producing big mistakes and interceptions. Other concerns are his lack of accuracy in in his deep throws, bad footwork and poor reading of defense. He relies too much in his arm and try to put the ball in tight windows with his target covered having other receivers open.
Nassib could be a good backup in the NFL with potential to be starter like Stanzi type of prospect. Probably a fourth or fifth round talent.
Games Watched: 2011 #2 LSU (#2 ranked defense), 2011 #22 Clemson (Orange Bowl), 2012 Texas Tech (#39 ranked defense), 2012 #5 Kansas State (#43 ranked defense), 2012 #11 Oklahoma (#44 ranked defense).
To talk about Geno first you have to know what type of offense he plays in: The Air Raid Offense utilized by many teams in college like Texas A&M with Johnny Manziel, Houston with Case Keenum (NCAA's all-time leader in total passing yards, touchdowns, and completions), Oklahoma State with Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma with Landry Jones, Baylor with RGIII and more.
From Wikipedia: The air raid offense is extremely pass heavy, in part because the quarterback is asked to audible in and out of plays depending on how the defense is aligned. Like the west coast offense, the air raid uses short passes as an extension of or even replacement for the running game. Instead of running the ball and maybe getting just 3 yards, the air raid uses a short pass in the hopes that the receiver can then turn that into 7 or 8 yards instead. The audible system is extremely important to the air raid offense. As such, as many as 90 percent of the run plays would be called at the line of scrimmage when the situation presented itself as an advantage.
West Virginia’s offense is very similar to what Reid wants in the players to run it. Small but speedy receivers and running backs, and a quarterback with very good accuracy and enough arm strength to put the ball all over the field.
Now, this system is pass heavy that means that many of Geno’s stats are inflated but that doesn’t mean he is an average quarterback. Geno is a franchise quarterback that can be a star in the NFL. Seeing that the air raid offense is similar to the west coast offense and that is probably the offense that Andy Reid is going to run here in KC. Geno is, with Barkley, the most adequate quarterback prospect for the Chiefs.
Geno is a special player; he is not in the level of Luck but has many good things to like. He is a football nerd (really passionate for football), can read defenses very well and change the play in the line of scrimmage (in part of the air raid offense that requires a quarterback to audible most of the time), has the ability to put the ball in any part of the field and have the legs to run and get a lot of yards, although he has a pass first quarterback mentality.
Some concerns with Geno are the lack of playing time against top defenses (he played very good against #2 LSU defense in 2011) and the inability to play the best when he was needed. Many times when his team was behind on the scoreboard, Geno struggled, he seemed to lose his rhythm and his accuracy was average at best. I think with more experience, Geno will be able to correct this.
Geno Smith is a top 10 talent for this draft and could very well be the #1 pick for the Chiefs.
Games watched: 2010 #1 Auburn (#55 ranked defense), 2011 #2 LSU (#2 ranked defense), 2011 #9 South Carolina (#4 ranked defense), 2012 Rutgers (#14 ranked defense), 2012 #10 South Carolina (#12 ranked defense).
Tyler Wilson may be the best pure passer in this draft, has been tutelage by Bobby Petrino and that’s a big advantage. What I liked the most of Wilson was his toughness and willingness to win, even if his team was behind by more than two scores. He kept fighting throwing good to great passes showing great intangibles and leadership.
That decision to play, to win, to fight may put him ahead of Smith and Barkley, because that’s something you can’t teach, that’s something only elite quarterbacks have.
He has ideal size and arm strength and has the ability to put the ball in tight windows and learn quickly how to beat the defense reading well the position and play of their defensives backs. Against the rush this guy is very good; he has the toughness to take the hit and still delivers a great pass putting in tight coverage, also read well the rush and steps up in the pocket with good footwork and eyes wide open searching for the open man and with a little slow release still delivers the ball with very good strength. Almost all the balls he throws are catchable and he is very good throwing it on the run.
He is definitely a top 10 talent and could be the best quarterback in this draft with a high ceiling. I think he is not in the mold of an Andy Reid type of quarterback like Geno or Barkley but Wilson is a franchise quarterback.
I think Geno Smith is the best quarterback in this draft but by a small margin with Tyler Wilson, to me Geno is better because of the familiarity between his offense’s system and Reid’s system. Tyler Wilson is an exceptional player that could be great with good coaching and Barkley is an experience quarterback with great knowledge of the position, knows how to play in a pro-style offense and how to lead a talented team with high expectations. These three quarterbacks have the intangibles and leadership to be starters in the NFL and have very good possibilities to become franchise quarterbacks. I will be happy with one of them with the first pick.
Then there are the good but not great prospects: Bray, Murray and Glennon. I believe that Bray is going to be very good in the NFL, he certainly has all the tools to succeed and if he matures and develop his intangibles he is going to be a really good starting quarterback. Murray is going to stay in college and that is a great decision, he could be the first quarterback drafted in 2014. Glennon is a good prospect but has some questions with his intelligence on the field but he is a first round talent. Even I said that Glennon could be a very good pick in the top 15, I put Bray ahead of him in my ranking because I think Bray has more potential to be great than Glennon but Bray could very well fall to the category of "boom or bust".
Dysert and Manuel have potential to be starters but they probably going to be backups in the NFL, Manuel could be a WR or TE in the NFL with his size and athleticism. Jones and Nassib could be very good backups in the NFL and have long shots to develop as starters.
Dream scenario: Taking Geno with the first pick and Bray with the third round pick.
#1 Geno Smith
#2 Tyler Wilson
#3 Matt Barkley
#4 Tyler Bray
#5 Mike Glennon
#6 Aaron Murray
#7 Zac Dysert
#8 EJ Manuel
#9 Landry Jones
#10 Ryan Nassib
Final Note: I’m not a professional analyst, and this is the first time I've written my analysis of prospects. I did it because this is probably the most exciting offseason in the last decade for the Chiefs fans and with the number one pick a lot of people believe that this is not the year to take a quarterback with that pick. I think they are wrong and I want to share my takes on the quarterbacks to show that last year’s draft only happens one time in probably every ten to fifteen years (even with Manning the Colts managed to win the same number of Super Bowls that the Ravens won with Trent Dilfer) but this draft has the same projection to compare with the 2008 draft (Ryan, Flacco), 2009 draft (Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman) and is definitely better than the 2007 and 2010 draft.
Thanks for reading, I know is very long but I just wanted to share all my knowledge.
Please give me your thoughts on the comments.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.