This is just an opinion piece and it means next to nothing. I'm not, never was, never will be a talent evaluator. I do understand football though and I've seen enough good QB's to understand footwork, vision, ability to read defensive alignment, release, arm strength, and accuracy are six of the most important factors a QB must possess if he wants to make a name for himself in the NFL.
I really want the Chiefs to make the best decision for the franchise and I hope that those talent evaluators find the next superstar. However, I've got to get this out there because this whole QB situation has been nagging at me ever since the potential for the first pick of the draft became a reality.
Now, we control our own destiny in the draft and can pick a franchise QB that will lead our team to victory for the next decade, right? Not so fast...Let's REALLY dive in there and take a look at the QB's everyone is talking about:
1. Geno Smith - High completion percentage. However, I've watched quite a few games and focused solely on him. He's got a good arm and is very accurate in the short to intermediate passing game (great news for West Coast Offense teams).
The knock on him: he drops back very slowly, his release can be very slow and deliberate at times, he locks in on the first option the majority of the time and he either ignores defensive keys or doesn't understand them because I see him throwing into bracketed coverage a lot while man-covered WR's are running free. Thankfully, he's got some athletes at the WR positions that do a good job of creating separation.
Evaluation: I'm not saying Smith is going to be a bust, because I think he can be a very good QB. But he's got work to do... a lot of work. He is presumed to be the consensus number one QB in the draft. Personally, I just don't see it. He's good. I just don't think he's "number one overall" good.
2) Matt Barkley - I really like this guy's vision and his ability to read uncomplicated defenses. He seems to have a high football IQ and a command for the offensive scheme at USC.
The knock on him: It takes a looooong time for the ball to get there on longer throws. I've seen him throw a 56 yard pass vs. Oregon, but that looks to be all he's got in the arm strength department.
Evaluation: He's a good prospect. I'm just worried that he's hit his ceiling. I honestly don't think he's going to get much better than what you see right now. He should have declared last year when his stock was at its highest.
3) Aaron Murray - This guy's good. He's got great vision. He freezes the safeties. He's got a strong arm with good accuracy. I love watching his arm snap forward as he launches the ball... great mechanics. His footwork is consistent. He also throws exceptionally well while rolling to his right. He's very accurate in the short to mid-range routes (more good news for West Coast Offenses).
The knock on him: He's short (by NFL QB standards). He sometimes tries to force something that just isn't there and that gets him into trouble. I question his ability to make the long pass. It's not that I don't think he can do it. He just rarely does, so it's hard to get a good evaluation on the deep pass ability.
Evaluation: He's competitive and he obviously wants every passing play to be a successful one. He needs a competent QB coach in his ear telling him to make smart decisions on every play, even if the smart decision is an incompletion. If he can understand and master the anti-gunslinger philosophy, the kid's got a chance.
4) Collin Klein - Positives... let's see: He's a nice guy. He was a finalist for the Heisman. He attends a local university.
Guys, I'm sorry. I really want this guy to be good for obvious reasons. He's just not. I'm sure he'll be a great accountant though! Congrats on a great career at K-State Collin. Nobody can take away that degree.
5) Mike Glennon - I like this kid. I actually made a comment in somebody's post that his posture and actions reminded me a lot of Peyton Manning. I did some research and go figure: he attended the Manning Passing Academy at Nicholls State over the summer. The fact that his demeanor so similarly matches that of the Manning's means two things: 1) he easily accepts instruction and demonstrates the ability to master the things you teach him; and 2) he obviously has not found his own identity and is a developmental project.
The knock on him: If the team is depending on him to put them on his shoulders for a win, I just don't think he can make that happen. I think he's good enough to fit in a system and could eventually develop into a very good pro QB.
Evaluation: The sky is the limit for this kid. It all depends on him as to how far he's capable of pushing himself. The right team, the right scheme, and the right time all need to align for this kid.
Other QB's of interest:
Colby Cameron - La. Tech
Tyler Wilson - Arkansas
Ricky Stanzi - KC Chiefs (don't forget about this guy)