I wrote this for a Chief's FB fan page. I decided to share it here too. "Geno Smith is not worth the overall first pick." How many times am I going to hear this statement before the draft? How do I approach this question and find an answer...maybe one you can sink your teeth into? Let's turn to the talking heads who started this rumor...exactly where is Geno Smith's worth? Question: What's Geno's Draft Rank? Charlie Campbell (over at Walter's): 16th best Draftek: 8th NEPatriotsDraft.com: 1st cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings: 10th nfldraftgeek.com: 19th draftcountdown.com: 4th fftoolbox.com: 6th Then I come upon this site: optimumscouting.com. They refuse to insert QBs into their big board. Instead, they have a separate system ranking QBs apart. This is their reasoning for exclusion from the big board: "Note that due to the fact that ranking quarterbacks with any other position are almost arbitrary and lead to inaccurate comparisons of quarterbacks to other positions, they are NOT included in these rankings. Instead, they are broken up into tiers." So, what was Geno Smith's rank? He topped their chart. Tier One "Possible Pro Bowler/Good NFL Starter" So, here's the final answer: Geno Smith is a first round choice. Factoring in need and the importance of the QB position to the overall success of an NFL team can skew (upward) the value of the guy under center. (I think we all can gauge the importance of having a QB after the Chiefs' last two years.) Now, add to the equation the competition to TAKE a QB within this year's draft. Here's a short list of teams who will be in the market for a QB and where they pick and why they're in the market: Jax (2nd) It was obvious last year that Blaine Gabbert was a lemon. Given his fear of getting hit, sub-par football IQ and poor attitude, he was destined to fail. It's obvious that Jacksonville needs to find a franchise quarterback. Oakland (3rd) Carson Palmer just turned 33. He's good enough to get a team into the playoffs if he has good talent to work with and a solid defense to support him, but that's clearly not the case. By the time Oakland rebuilds its team properly, Palmer will be too old to make a postseason run. Unless the Raiders think Terrelle Pryor is the long-term answer, they'll need to bring in a young quarterback to groom behind Palmer. Arizona (7th) This is obvious. The Cardinals have started Kevin Kolb, Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, Brian Hoyer and Max Hall since Kurt Warner retired. Arizona will probably select a signal-caller fairly early in the 2013 NFL Draft. Buffalo (8th) There's a reason general manager Buddy Nix told the media he was going to draft a franchise quarterback. The Bills haven't had one since Jim Kelly, which is why they haven't been to the playoffs this century. I stopped there. Including us, there's five teams who need/want/will be looking at QBs. (Note to self: Teams who suck in the QB department draft higher in the draft...who KNEW?!!) So, that's the reason, when I ran 29 consecutive, random mocks, Geno Smith NEVER made it past the 8th pick. (The reasons listed above are from Walter's...they're not my words. I even excluded the Browns at the 6th pick, who have a average/moderate need because of Weeden's age.) Now, let's look at risk. Since the new CBA, the risk at picking first has diminished. Teams don't have to invest over $25M for a four year contract, (shock!!) even for a QB. Fail and you missed on the pick, can cut bait, and suffer no larger consequence than what missing on a 3rd round choice used to cost. Finally, trading down is not an option if you want the top QB. STRIKE that thought from your mind. Geno may not be ranked the best player in this draft. In this case need trumps BPA. If the Chiefs want to draft an NFL calibre quarterback they can't risk trading down...even a few spots.