August 18, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) looks on in the second half against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams won 31-17. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE
The over/under: 1000.5 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, 325.5 receiving yards, 2.5 receiving TDs
The first thing that jumps out at you is the yards -- only 1000.5. Charles surpassed that mark in 2009 and 2010 before his injured 2011 season. Let's say his yards per carry ends up somewhere around five, which is a yard lower than what it was in his last full season. That means he'd be receiving around 200 carries. Ultimately I think he ends up with more than that. I'd say Charles averages in the neighborhood of five yards per carry on 225 rushes, which would result in 1,125 yards.
Related: Matt Cassel's over/under
The rushing touchdowns seem about right. Charles had seven in 2009 and five in 2010, despite surpassing 1,000 yards each time.
The KC Star's Adam Teicher has said a few times that the Chiefs want Charles and Peyton Hillis to combine for 500-plus touches. A lot would need to go right to hit that number but it shows you what type of production they're hoping for with these guys.
Because signs point to the Chiefs rushing the ball a lot this year, I'd take the over across the board on those rushing stats. Of course, my betting advice is worth about as much as your subscription to Arrowhead Pride.