We hear it in the press, talk about it at the water cooler, cheer for it over a beer. We've heard it over and over before...organizations or individuals getting kudos for something they can not back up or taking credit for victories that have yet to happen. We all must realize, however, that the Kansas City Chiefs turnaround...
...is a job that is not done.
We are encouraged, at times, by feats of performance from our players. We see hope in draft selections and free agent signings. But the cold truth is...the Chiefs have not yet proven that this franchise has made it back from the dead.
In 2009 I attempted to create a baseline that would establish, and recognize a "floundering" NFL franchises. In a nutshell, any group below the baseline criteria of a .250 winning percentage for two consecutive years, since 2000 would be considered a "floundering team".
| Record after Hitting Floundering Line |
|||||||
| Yr | Rams |
Raiders |
Lions | Chiefs |
Browns |
Bengals | 49ers |
| 2011 | 2-14 | 8-8 | 10-6 | 7-9 | 4-12 | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| 2010 | 7-9 | 8-8 | 6-10 | 10-6 | 5-11 | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| 2009 | 1-15 |
5-11 | 2-14 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| 2008 | 2-14 |
5-11 |
0-16 |
2-14 |
4-12 |
4-11 |
7-9 |
| 2007 | 3-13 |
4-12 |
7-9 | 4-12 |
10-6 |
7-9 |
5-11 |
| 2006 | 2-14 |
3-13 |
4-12 |
8-8 |
7-9 | ||
| 2005 | 4-12 |
5-11 |
6-10 |
11-5 |
4-12 | ||
| 2004 | 6-10 |
4-12 |
8-8 |
2-14 | |||
| 2003 |
5-11 |
5-11 |
8-8 |
||||
| 2002 |
3-13 |
9-7 |
2-14 |
||||
| 2001 |
2-14 |
7-9 |
6-10 |
||||
| 2000 | 3-13 | 4-12 | |||||
| 1999 | 2-14 | 4-12 | |||||
And I came up with...seven.
In that article I wrote:
There seems to be a common misconception that all NFL teams can make a quick turnaround. The norm in the NFL might be for most franchises to have "quick turnarounds". The exception would seem to be franchises with perpetual losing seasons. Two consecutive losing seasons of .250 or below, to be exact. - Bewsaf
It was my contention, at the time, that when teams reach the "floundering stage" the common trends that follow many NFL losing teams, no longer apply. The norm is no longer the rule. And after reaching the floundering stage, teams find it very hard to restructure their organization and make it back to the two consecutive winning seasons.
The Kansas City Chiefs became one of those floundering teams after they posted a 4-12 record in 2007 and went 2-14 in 2008. Like every team since 2000, they have yet to see back-to-back winning seasons. No one has figured it out yet...no one. The Raiders keep coming up short. The Browns and Bengals have been at it for longer than any of them...and can't get it right. The Rams and Chiefs are newcomers, proving in 2011 what every team that had reached the "floundering" stage before them had shown...It was worse than you thought.
Three teams will attempt to break free from the bonds of their floundering seasons in 2012: The Lions, Bengals, and 49ers. Each of these organizations have the opportunity to achieve 2 consecutive winning seasons after reaching the "floundering" stage. The road could be harder for some than others based on their strength of schedule in 2012.
|
2012 Strength Of Schedule |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
As for the Chiefs, they have at least two more seasons, according to the criteria set forth here, before they can prove they have shed the shackles of the "floundering" season. With their 22nd hardest strength of schedule, many injured players returning, and a renewed energy in the clubhouse...the 2012 season might be a positive step in the right direction for the Kansas City franchise. But even with a winning season in 2012...
...the job will only be half done.
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