FanPost

The Deep Ball

Randy Moss Catch vs. Jets (via theaccfan)

"For some perspective, the NFL average aDOT is 0.4 for a running back, 12.0 for a wide receiver, and 8.0 for a tight end," Clay explains.

Lloyd sits pretty in the number three spot with an aDOT of 16.6. This confirms his explosive downfield ability and points to where the Patriots can use him. The second thing to glean is how his depth is averaged over such a large number of receptions (144). Lloyd is the only guy in the top 10 who caught over 140 balls; Mike Wallace is next best with 122.

The other two Patriots pass catchers are ranked in Clay's bottom 10, at 109 (Hernandez) and 113 (Welker). Keep in mind that on this chart, being a cellar-dweller is not necessarily a bad thing.

Hernandez, a hybrid tight end-receiver, has a normalized aDOT of 7.8 on 134 catches. Makes sense, as he's a guy who works both downfield and out of the backfield.

Welker is lowest since 2008 among wide receivers with 50+ targets in 2011. His number is low even for a slot guy, but that's just how the Patriots use him: underneath as a possession player.

Link

Average Depth of Reception (aDOT) from www.profootballfocus.com

Deep Ball Accuracy (2011) - 20+ yard attempts

Attempts - Completions - Percentage (includes Drops counted in accuracy stat)

1 Aaron Rodgers GB 61 32 60.7
2 Tony Romo DAL 61 32 54.1
3 Josh Freeman TB 36 15 52.8
4 Drew Brees NO 71 37 52.1
5 Michael Vick PHI 58 24 51.7
6 Matthew Stafford DET 73 31 49.3
7 Sam Bradford SL 41 16 48.8
8 Jay Cutler CHI 37 14 48.6
9 Matt Moore MIA 59 23 47.5
10 Eli Manning NYG 109 43 46.8
11 Andy Dalton CIN 60 28 46.7
12 Alex D. Smith SF 43 17 46.5
13 Matt Schaub HST 37 14 43.2
14 Philip Rivers SD 75 28 42.7
15 Carson Palmer OAK 50 20 42.0
16 Tom Brady NE 60 20 41.7
17 Colt McCoy CLV 44 17 40.9
18 Cam Newton CAR 89 33 40.4
19 Tarvaris Jackson SEA 66 22 39.4
20 Rex Grossman WAS 61 20 37.7
21 Matt Cassel KC 35 11 37.1

On Average teams take 60 or so shots on the Deep Ball per season. The Deep Ball is not what it once was in the NFL. Offenses can only expend so many attempts per game on the huge uppercut when games are so competitive. High percentage, short passing routes have a much better chance of moving the Chains in todays game.

Randy Moss 2008 Season - All 11 TD's (via vcmoss81)

Deep Ball Targets (2011) - 50%

Total Targets - Deep Targets - Catch percentage

1 Jordy Nelson GB 93 21 71.4
2 Victor Cruz NYG 121 27 51.9
3 A.J. Green CIN 111 33 48.5
4 Brandon Marshall MIA 138 34 47.1
5 Jeremy Maclin PHI 94 21 42.9
5 Calvin Johnson DET 151 35 42.9
7 Steve L. Smith CAR 127 33 42.4
8 Mike Wallace PIT 113 24 41.7
9 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 151 34 41.2
10 Nate Washington TEN 118 25 40.0
11 Dez Bryant DAL 100 19 36.8
11 Demaryius Thomas DEN 65 19 36.8
11 Hakeem Nicks NYG 128 38 36.8
14 Julio Jones ATL 91 22 36.4
15 Jabar Gaffney WAS 110 28 35.7
16 DeSean Jackson PHI 95 26 34.6
17 Denarius Moore OAK 73 29 34.5
17 Brandon Lloyd SL 112 29 34.5
19 Vincent Jackson SD 110 38 34.2
20 Antonio Brown PIT 120 28 32.1
21 Dwayne Bowe KC 130 25 32.0
22 Torrey Smith BLT 90 36 30.6
23 Sidney Rice SEA 56 22 27.3
24 Eric Decker DEN 91 27 25.9
25 Mario Manningham NYG 73 24 25.0
26 Pierre Garcon IND 123 26 23.1
27 Reggie Wayne IND 121 19 21.1
28 Roddy White ATL 175 23 17.4
29 Devin Aromashodu MIN 78 24 16.7
29 Damian Williams TEN 89 24 16.7
31 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 106 22 13.6

- 25%

xx Steve Breaston KC 96 14 35.7
xx Jonathan Baldwin KC 51 11 18.2
xx Terrance Copper KC 12 2 50.0

Some teams have the scheme to go deep more. Some teams have the players on both ends of the play to make it more effective a game strategy. The Chiefs have Dwayne Bowe

Dwayne Bowe 2010-2011 Highlights .mp4 (via Zackmann12)

Matt Cassel Deep ball accuracy through the years (passes of 20+ yards)

2008 - 12 completions on 45 attempts - 26.67%
2009 - 18 completions on 55 attempts - 32.73%
2010 - 14 completions on 57 attempts - 24.56%
2011 - 11 completions on 35 attempts - 31.43%

and Matt Cassel.

I notice Matt Moore (#9) and Brandon Marshall (#4) on their respective lists for Deep Ball attempts.

Geaux Chiefs

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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