A Unique Look At Elite QB's and Ricky Stanzi



This picture looks kind of like the off-season. May-July. Barren, dry, and dead. But look closer and you'll notice that stump is actually Ricky Stanzi. Sweet lord that's blasphemy! I came across an article a while back, and even though I myself suffer from Math Skillz I still found it interesting. With the abundant chatter over our current QB situation and the unprecedented love for One: Ricky Stanzi, I felt obliged to share this and stir the pot a little. Or a lot, because what these guys are saying is so crazy it's worth at least mentioning. Follow after the Jump!

(*NOTE: I apologize if this post has already been done, or if the information I'm using has previously been discussed and I'm just dredging up the past. Not my intention to copy anyone's Post. I did take a brief look around and did not notice anything, but it was a very brief look. All links posted are also posted at the bottom of this segment)

We seem torn into a few different groups here on AP when it comes to Ricky Stanzi: The Lovers, The Haters, and The Indifferents.

The Lovers: The Lovers like to preach and argue until they're blue in the face that Ricky Stanzi is Jesus H. Christ, Tom Brady, and Captain America rolled into one. He is The Avengers. When they assemble, they take the form of Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi Smash!!!

Despite so-so performances, stats, and a poor showing at the Insight Bowl in 2010, Heralds of the Great One continue to laud and praise Stanzi if for anything but his glorious Preseason Campaign. Where he clearly beat out Tyler Palko for the #2 spot...

The indifferents: This group doesn't like Stanzi confrontations. They are willing to recognize he may deserve a chance and may be the same as, or better than current starter Matt Cassel, but most agree that until Cassel either gets a case of The Plague, or is Tyler Palko bad, Stanzi won't be getting that chance.

The Haters: The Haters decry Stanzi. They throw stats, moan about his inconsistencies, and argue until they're blue in the face that Stanzi is NOT The Avengers assembled, or Jesus H. Christ, or Tom Brady. That's a rich comparison! Ricky Stanzi!? The next Tom Brady? BAHAHAHAHAHaaaa.......But what many of them may not know is that that's exactly the comparison he's drawing from the folks at Fantasy Football Metrics.

What exactly is Fantasy Football Metrics and what do they do?

FFM ranks:

players based on a computer formula/algorithm for each position based on all the historical data and formulas we have devised...and takes a Moneyball approach to the scouting process...scouting players heavily by data--physical measurables, college output, and historical modeling.

To truly get an understanding of this process, FFM compiles massive amounts of information about players and then compounds them against derivatives they've determined exist among "Elite" players in the NFL. And by Elite, for this segment, we will be talking about QB's. This is the original list of QB's used to build the foundation of this formula: Rogers, Brees, Brady, Manning(Peyton), Roethlisberger, and yes, Phyllis Rivers.

While the site does a far better job of breaking down this entire process, I'll give you a brief summation.

The Elite level QB's are assigned a numerical value based on their collegiate careers. Those values are determined by:

Key Matchups - Games in which the Elite played in their final year against comparable competition

Weighted Matchups - Games played against top ranked teams or teams with top ranked offenses/defenses and played on the road.

Performance Per Attempt - The Elite put up quality numbers rather than quantity ie. FFM's example "200 yards passing in 20 attempts, is comparable to 300 yards passing in 30 attempts".

Physical Characteristics - Height, hand size, arm length, etc. Apparently mobility is not a sign of elite status.

Wonderlic/IQ - FFM says, "there is a definite correlation to low Wonderlic scores and QB disappointments".

* NOTE This is not 100% accurate and does not insure that each player(s) are going to be exactly what FFM's findings show. In fact there are several key players you will see that make you scratch your head and say WTF? But the information here is interesting non-the-less and feels worth mentioning.

The results of this study places QB's into two tiers of scoring. Again, FFM does a much better job of explaining this and you should check them out. The Elite tier QB's numbers rank between .850-1.000+, while the .849- group have the most potential for busting.

So far 16 QB's have been ranked into this system since before 2011 and they are:

1 1.156 Bradford, Sam

2 1.120 Roethlisberger, Ben

3 1.109 Brady, Tom

4 1.077 Manning, Peyton

5 1.022 Pennington, Chad

6 1.015 Palmer, Carson

7 1.007 Sanchez, Mark

8 0.994 Rodgers, Aaron

9 0.993 Rivers, Philip

10 0.973 Leftwich, Byron

11 0.947 Smith, Alex

12 0.917 Kolb, Kevin

13 0.904 Brees, Drew

14 0.879 Pike, Tony

15 0.873 Schaub, Matt

16 0.859

Flacco, Joe

Tony Pike? Byron Leftwich? Mark Sanchez, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith and Drew Brees? Okay, I guess Brees isn't so bad. I'd take him and his contract dispute off the Saint's hands if you twisted my arm a bit. So 5 of the 16 "Elite/Great" scoring players listed, are either unproven, so-so, or mediocre at best. Joe Flacco? Questionable.

FFM makes no assumptions that their findings are truly 100% fact that should be carefully studied and analyzed by every Pro team looking to Draft the next Tom Brady. But as they have mentioned that this system is not infallible, it does seem to have a fairly high rate of success, given 11 out of 16 QB's have had very good to great success in their careers. That puts this current model at over 70% accurate. And should Kolb pan out (I have my doubts, even with Fitz), that would propel it into the low 80's.

Pretty incredible numbers. Not a sure thing, but they may be onto something. So what does this system have to do with Ricky Stanzi? How does God's Left Hand fit into this picture and save us from the bottomless abyss of despair that is Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn (who by the way scored a .579 on FFM's compilation of players below .849)?

According to R.C Fisher (the creator of this Moneyball machine), Ricky Stanzi was in fact the highest scoring QB in the 2011 Draft based on his formula. Ricky Stanzi. The Best QB of the 2011 Draft.

I almost threw up typing that. I've heavily debated and argued that Stanzi is a back up and that he always will be (Hater). And this guy Fisher, who states again and again that he's not an Iowa fan, is telling me that Ricky Stanzi could in fact be the next poster child for Calvin Klein underwear, Uggz, and Brazilian Super-Models? Oh, and a potentially Elite, Super Bowl winning, Dynasty driven, All-Pro QB? Player please!?

Not only did Stanzi score the best based on Fisher's current model (Stanzi's overall score was 1.012), but going back and comparing Stanzi's data, minus the INT's, Fisher noticed that the data is glaringly similar to One: Tom Brady.

Shellshocked yet? I was. I really like Calvin Klein underwear and Brazilian Super-Models. And now I could potentially be seeing the guy I've railed over and over against all over the tabloids, smoking hottie in tow, and smiling up at me from the packaging of the underwear I buy? WTF!? That's not okay!

But if that's the case...I'd pay the price of my pride for a Super Bowl and an Elite QB any day. I'm not too proud. But I'd do it.

Fisher made this analysis before the 2011 draft, and he concluded that a "smart team" would snatch Stanzi up.



Maybe instead of being a dead stump, on a team with barren, quality depth in any capacity at the QB position, maybe, just maybe, we have a guy that can grow into a strong, dependable fixture that can create and sustain an Oasis for a dry and thirsty town. Maybe the architect of this team, Scott Pioli, knew what he was doing all along when he drafted Ricky Stanzi. Maybe it wasn't his and Kirk Ferentz's love child after all....

Then again, maybe R.C. Fisher just has $$$ signs in his head and his grandiose mathematical formulas are fraudulent and phony? And Stanzi really is just the love child of Kirk Ferentz and Scott Pioli. We won't know until Ricky Stanzi takes the field and gets time under center. But until then, at least we have something to talk about this off-season =)

*Again, the links throughout this segment can be found here at FFM:

- What Is FFM

- Predicting The Unpredictable...Projecting A College QB To The NFL

- Statistical Analysis Of Ricky Stanzi

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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