Merriam-Webster's dictionary has the following listed as definitions for the term "risk";
Risk - 1 : possibility of loss or injury : peril 2 : someone or something that creates or suggests a hazard 3 a : the chance of loss or the perils to the subject matter of an insurance contract; also : the degree of probability of such loss 3 b : a person or thing that is a specified hazard to an insurer 3 c : an insurance hazard from a specified cause or source <war risk> 4 : the chance that an investment (as a stock or commodity) will lose value
Lets take the #2 definition and put a NFL twist onto it. We will also look at the Kansas City Chief's selection of NT Dontari Poe with the #11 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and attempt to assess the true "risk" involved. Follow along after the jump and grade my ability to convey a thought process and ability to make a point....
If we dissect the second definition of the term "risk" we can adjust it in turn to the following;
someone or somethingDontari Poe thatcreates or suggests a hazarda bust potential in the NFL.
I believe that we can all assume (no matter if you agree of the risk factor being low or high) that this is the acceptable adjustment when speaking of the "risk" that Dontari Poe represents. The reasons behind the "risk" labeled to Dontari Poe include;
1 - College game tape doesn't stand up to the athletic ability.
2 - Not Available
3 - Not Available
The following are my personal thoughts and findings from various sources on the judgement of Dontari Poe.
- As mentioned by Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel; the athletic ability of Dontari Poe gave his coaches in Memphis the ability to play him all over the Defensive Line. Coupled with having three Defensive Coordinators during his college career he had very little time to blossom in a single position.
- The Memphis Tigers play in Conference USA and therefore see a lot of spread offenses. As Scott Pioli stated, even when the Tigers played out of conference teams they were almost always spread offenses. In the spread offense most teams focus on the ability to execute screen plays and 3 step drops by the quarterback. Both of which almost always eliminate the Defensive Linemen from the play. As a defensive player lining up against a spread offense it is very hard to accrue the "sexy" stat that garner a lot of attention....the sack.
- Dontari Poe was the single defensive NFL Prospect from the Memphis Tigers during his 2011 season. That allows the offense to primarily focus on him when game planning. From what I saw a lot of the rushes that offenses ran against the tigers in 2011 were designed to run away from Dontari Poe
- Kansas City Chiefs were high on Dontari Poe well before the 2012 NFL Combine. The combine results were only the "Icing on the cake" for Kansas City. Scott Pioli mentioned that he, his coaches and his scouts reviewed every snap from Dontari Poe's 2011 season and most of his plays from the 2010 season. What Kansas City saw was that while there was a lack of the "sexy" sack stat there were numerous plays were Dontari Poe was able to pressure the QB or make a tackle in the backfield. Scott Pioli also mentioned that after viewing the 2011 season they determined that due to offensive schemes and play calling Dontari Poe had no ability to effect the play roughly 49% of the time.
- Kansas City had two trade offers when the clock started on the #11 pick. They refused both (something that we all know Scott Pioli rarely does) and chose to take the player that they had rated the highest of the remaining players. The experience of Scott Pioli, Romeo Crennel and the other coaches and scouts should tell you that they must have been very high on Dontari Poe to pull the trigger on him at #11.
The word "risk" is also subjective if you didn't know. What you may see as a risk may be different than what I see as a risk. For instance; I feel that skydiving from 18,000 feet was one of the most exciting things I have ever done. I can honestly say that I would feel very little risk doing it again given the opportunity. Now, if you ask my wife she would say that the risk of "jumping out of a perfectly good airplane for no reason" is very very high. The same subjectivity of the degree of risks can be connected to monetary en devours other physical activities and almost anything else out there.
When evaluating the potential of NFL prospects the "experts" do not evaluate every player as they would preform plugged into every possible related position of play or the schemes that the perspective teams run or the coaching ability each team provides. Just like the presumed risk of skydiving to me is different than my wife's the risk of a NFL prospect is different to each team based on where and how they plan to use that player.
Kansas City's assumed risk has been self reported (by Kansas City) to be very low. This is due to the fact that they researched their player (again, they watched every defensive play Dontari Poe had in 2011), understood their team need (they did admit that they did not have any extreme needs but had the ability to make the biggest upgrade at the NT position) and their confidence in that player to respond to the coaches and the scheme the player is put into.
Final Word: LOW RISK. Just wait until Romeo Crennel gets his hands on Dontari Poe. When assigned to and only asked to preform in a single primary potion this kid will thrive. Romeo Crennel has always been able to get a lot out of his player and even more so when talking about Defensive Linemen.
I don't think you will see a gaudy amount of the "sexy" stats from Dontari Poe even after he solidifies his role in the KC defense. You will however see that with a large body in the middle of the line the opposing quarterback will not be able to step up to avoid the outside pass rush from those two KC linebackers on the outside Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. To measure the production of a Nose Tackle you will have to look elsewhere like the OLBs and DBs. A improved number of sacks for Hali, Houston or even Johnson will prove the impact of the NT just as much as a increase of interceptions from the likes of Flowers, Routt, Berry and company due to the quarter back being rushed and not being able to step up into the pocket.
In my opinion, this pick will cause the KC defense to go from 11th overall in 2011 to TOP 5 in 2012.
I always start one of these posts with a clear defined goal, but I don't always see it even when I am finished. Please let me know what you think of the RISK in Dontari Poe at the #11.
Still regard the pick as HIGH RISK. (31 votes)
Ok, maybe this pick has a MILD RISK. (72 votes)
You have convinced me that this pick has LOW RISK. (22 votes)
I already thought this was a LOW RISK. (83 votes)
208 total votes