FanPost

Playing the Percentages - Doubling Down

Anyone else ever thought about the percentages? I know you have... like how X position has Y% chance of being successful in the NFL? If there is one thing that I feel like we have talked about here on AP it is Pioli's disposition to double down.

Remember when Pioli first came on board. We weren't sure how many on our defensive line would translate to a 3-4 front, but we were certain we needed at least one. Enter Tyson Jackson and Alex Magee. I specifically remember a decent amount of people being upset that we doubled down... and look at us now. One player washed out and the other developed.

The general success percentages probably will tell you any player has around a 50% chance at being successful. So why not take two to hit one? You have certain needs going into each draft, why take one player and call it quits? If you don't hit then guess what? It makes such a muddled and murky picture next year when you have to debate do I give him another year or draft a guy and move on? Why not just draft two? You have an excellent chance of hitting on one, and... well... you may just hit on both. Turning a weakness into a potential strength.

Which reminds me of a certain deplorable S position. What did we do? Took Berry and Lewis. Anyone else remember the fan vibe being that of, why did we take two? We needed a safety, why not use the pick elsewhere? Well this time we hit best case scenario, they both panned out. Furthermore... we may even be needing another!

You never have enough talent at a position, what is absolutely impossible and surely insanely frustrating is having to wait an entire year with one position in balance and all your hopes on the success of one player. Not to mention the fact that when you double down in the draft you have an instant competition and increased development of that player.

What about this year? People seem upset. Why? We knew we were needing an upgrade on DL and OL. Why surprised and upset we just took two OL? The odds say only one will pan out. It was pretty much a lock we would take two because we HAVE to have one work. Furthermore don't be surprised if our 4th or 5th rounder goes to DL. We HAD to upgrade this group and you know what? It is likely they ensure an upgrade with a double down.

NO PLAYER IS GUARANTEED. NOT A SINGLE ONE. Had to put that disclaimer at the end for the people who clamor about player X or Z.

With that said why don't you feel better about the intelligent approach of attacking the draft in numbers? If you target areas of improvement why take a flier and hope you upgraded? Why not kick it up a notch and pretty much know you upgraded?

It is my belief that this yearly targeting of certain players and an overabundance of these players in the draft allows Pioli and co to say mission accomplished. They have a goal in each draft, hit it hard, and see real results and improvement in these areas. This allows them to consistently move on and systematically upgrade our roster. Otherwise we would just be tooling around each year hoping our one pick worked, and more than likely beating our headss against the wall every single year like most teams.

The 1st year it was DL. Next year it was team speed and S was an obvious focus. The third year it was general athletes, big physical football players. This year is the trenches. Go trenches baby!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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