FanPost

Chiefs 2012 Draft: Who Do the Experts Pick?

I have gathered the mock drafts from the most accurate mockers on the web. From this, I have tallied their selections using a weight-factor (N) according to how accurate the mocker is. From these results, the favorite among experts is...

Since I have done my best to ignore the draft this year, I wished to obtain the most likely candidate in the shortest amount of time possible. Historically, Rick Gosselin has been the most accurate mock-drafter out there; naturally, I sought out his 2012 mock and sadly learned he will no longer be doing them. As a solution, I turned to the advice of the top pickers of the last five years (Savitzky and Golay say 5 is a good k+1 no?) according to The Huddle Report.

From this, I have normalized the score (details at above link) for each guru to Rick's 46.8 5-year agerage. This value (N) is used as the weighting factor for each selection. After some internet sleuthing, I identified the pick of each expert, weighted it accordingly and summed the values. Results after the table.

5 YEAR AVERAGES
RANK Web Site / Publication 5 YR AVG. 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 N
1 Rick Gosselin - Dallas Morning News 46.8 53 45 43 40 53 1
N/A- New Job w/ Dalls Morning News… No more mocks :(
2 Jason Boris - Times News 44.6 51 44 44 37 47 0.952991453
Strangely absent this year…
3 Mel Kiper jr - ESPN 43.2 40 48 43 37 48 0.923076923
Decastro?- Embargoed…
4 Al Fronczak - East Coast Sports News 43 47 37 40 44 47 0.918803419
11. Kansas City Chiefs - ILB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)...The Chiefs filled their need at RT by signing Winston in free-agency and feel Kuechly can play next to Johnson in the middle of their 3-4 scheme. http://www.eastcoastsportsnews.com/2012_NFL_Draft.html
5 Robby Esch - The Huddle Report 42.6 44 45 43 45 36 0.91025641
11 OL David DeCastro Stanford
6 Scott Wright - Draft Countdown 41.6 46 39 43 39 41 0.888888889
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: DONTARI POE, NT, MEMPHISAfter years of rebuilding the Chiefs have a nice core of young talent in place, but job is far from complete. One spot that must still be upgraded is nose tackle, where 35-year-old Kelly Gregg was merely a stop-gap solution. Dontari Poe is a massive 346 pound space-eater in the middle but is also surprisingly athletic, quick and agile. Those freakish physical tools were on full display at the Scouting Combine, where Poe stunned evaluators by running a 4.98 forty yard dash and throwing up 44 reps in the bench press. In addition to being able to play nose tackle in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme, Poe could also see action as a defensive end Dontari Poe | Memphis Tigers in an odd front and that versatility will only add to his value. Chiefs GM Scott Pioli drafted Vince Wilfork during his tenure with the Patriots and Poe could play a similar role and have the same type of impact in Kansas City. The Chiefs could do better at inside linebacker alongside Derrick Johnson too so Luke Kuechly of Boston College or perhaps even Dont’a Hightower of Alabama could be possibilities as well. Don't rule out Stanford OG David DeCastro either. With that said, Poe and the Chiefs seem like a match made in NFL Draft Heaven.
7 Michael Abromowitz - The Football Expert 41.4 38 41 48 43 37 0.884615385
11. KC: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis* The Chiefs typically go for surefire players in the first couple rounds and take their shots later in the draft. Poe goes against that grain for sure. Kansas City has needed a nose tackle since they first implemented their 3-4 defense.
8 Ryan McCrystal - Draft Ace 40.8 38 39 43 38 46 0.871794872
11. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Kuechly – LB – Boston College This is a very safe pick for the Chiefs. Kueckly won’t change their team dramatically, but he’s a can’t miss prospect and gives them a potentially dominant front seven. Derrick Johnson and Kueckly would form arguably the league’s best pair of inside linebackers. If they pass on Kuechly, Dontari Poe and David DeCastro could be options.
9 Dan Kadar - Mocking The Draft 40.2 46 49 38 29 39 0.858974359
Dontari Poe | Defensive tackle | Memphis: If there is one thing head coach Romeo Crennel loves, it's size on the defensive line. With Kelly Gregg near retirement and coming off injury, Crennel could view Poe as the nose tackle of the future. Poe may remind the hulking Poe of Ted Washington, a player who followed him from New England to Cleveland.
10 Jeff Mullen - NFL Draft Line 39.8 39 35 41 42 42 0.85042735
N/A
11 Chad Thompson - NFL Draft Line 39.6 40 38 34 34 52 0.846153846
N/A
12 Brian Fitzgerald - Draft Daddy 39.2 40 38 39 37 42 0.837606838
Kansas City Chiefs - LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
13 Colin Lindsay - Great Blue North 38.6 41 38 35 39 40 0.824786325
N/A
14 Forrest Long - Fantasy Football Toolbox 38.2 41 43 34 32 41 0.816239316
KC: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis* The Chiefs need to upgrade their defense and finally getting a huge gap filler will be a priority for them on draft day. Poe is a strong, powerful beast that will clog up the middle of the defensive line. He is an athletic, 340 plus pound run stopper who ran under 5 seconds in the forty at the combine; he fills a huge need for Kansas City.
15 Drew Boylhart - The Huddle Report 38 40 33 45 34 38 0.811965812
N/A
16 Matt Bitonti - Draft Daddy 38 38 40 36 41 35 0.811965812
Kansas City Chiefs - OG David Decastro, Stanford Chiefs fans remember the success the team enjoyed when they had Pro Bowl guards. Decastro turns back the clock.
17 Tommy Lawlor - Scouts Notebook 38 36 41 40 33 40 0.811965812
11. Kansas City – Michael Brockers, DT LSU Cox is the player I think the Chiefs would love to get their hands on, however if they strike out there they could go with Michael Brockers as a five-tech for their system. Glenn Dorsey was not drafted by the current front office and will his small frame – 6-foot-1, 297 pounds – I doubt they’ll retain him. The one player I do wonder if they’d pass on though is David DeCastro.
18 John Clifford - Draft Board Insider 38 33 34 39 33 51 0.811965812
N/A
19 Curtis Popejoy - Draft Board Insider 37.6 42 38 32 34 42 0.803418803
N/A
20 Aaron Freeman - Falc-Fans 37.2 37 38 43 35 33 0.794871795
Kansas City Chiefs (coin flip) – DE Devon Still, Penn State??
21 Bill Viola - Saturdays 2 Sundays 37.2 33 39 35 35 44 0.794871795
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis
22 Chris Steuber - Scout.com 36.8 37 38 33 39 37 0.786324786
Luke Kueckley
23 Fred Jones - The Huddle Report 36.6 36 42 36 32 37 0.782051282
N/A
24 Peter Schrager - FoxSports.com 35.6 37 38 31 35 37 0.760683761
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
25 Robert Bryant - NFL Draft Dog 34.8 33 38 35 34 34 0.743589744
LB Luke Keuchly, Boston College
26 Glenn Bernardi - Draft Daddy 34.2 35 34 34 35 33 0.730769231
Kansas City Chiefs - OG David Decastro, Stanford
The Score: DeCastro- 3.38; Kueckley- 4.16; Poe- 5.00 Close race, but Poe seems to be the favorite.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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