FanPost

Matthew shan't take us there!

Curiosity has, once again, led me to do some actual research. Although I prefer to research NFL football through beer goggles on Sunday, sometimes the ol’ brain thinks it has an idear. The perpetual AP interest in "what is" the QB situation of the Kansas City Chiefs was the main propellant, so I take no blame. I’m definitely not splitting atoms with any of this, so don’t get too excited or, for thou who struggle with statistics, intimidated.


Jump.

Without boring anybody else on my lame attempts at writing some kind of slick intro, I’ll just "get to the catch," as they say. Historically, there have been some very impressive and lengthy posts on QBs around here. In depth analysis of players based on box stats, draft position, advanced stats, physical traits, and more have given readers a better understanding for the ingredients of a Super Bowl quarterback.

I know one thing, he better be drafted in the first round, right? The evidence for this is documented here very thoroughly, and I’m definitely not here to dispute those numbers. Actually, I’m not even going to mention draft position. <--- That was the last time, sorry folks. I, instead, put my focus on two traits that all quarterbacks must possess and can be numerically described. Those traits are age and year with club (which I’ll just refer to as ‘year’). For better explanation, ‘year’ will be the amount of consecutive seasons a QB spent with the club including the Super Bowl year. For example, Drew Brees was in his fourth season with the Saints when he won his Super Bowl, therefore he received a four. Drew’s previously occurred seasons with the Chargers have no bearing.

With those two traits in mind, I went back a little over 20 years to Super Bowl XXV and worked my way up to the present. I documented the age and year for both starting QBs of the past 22 Super Bowls (Wikipedia is nice). I then developed the following table:

SB QBs

SB Losing QBs

SB Winning QBs

Age

min

23

24

23

max

38

37

38

avg

29.6

30.1

29.2

Year

min

1

1

1

max

16

12

16

avg

5.7

5.7

5.7

Listing all of the QBs and Super Bowls would take up too much space and deter readers, so I left out the specifics. Note that this analysis was carried out as if there were 44 different QBs. Each QB for each 22 SBs was only described by two numbers. So, Tom Brady was represented five times, but each time he carried a different description and affected the results accordingly.

Some notes:

  • The younger QB won 14 out of 22 times (64%).
  • The QB with less years occurred with his current club compared to his opponent won 13 out of 22 times (59%).
  • The oldest and youngest QBs to ever play in a Super Bowl both won (Big Ben at 23 and Smellway at 38)
  • Based on averages, a 30 year old QB in his 6th season with his current club gives you the best chance to make it to a Super Bowl and win.
  • Trent Dilfer is the only QB to win a Super Bowl in his first season with a team (Jake Delhomme went to the Super Bowl in his first year with the Panthers)

How does this relate to the Chiefs? It was obviously the main objective when I began the research. And the results backed my original thought. Based on this analysis, Matt Cassel is the Chiefs best option to win a Super Bowl this year. He’s the closest thing we have to matching the above averages of 30 years old and 6th season with club (Matt is 29 and in his 4th season with Chiefs).

The other two options on the Chiefs roster have about the same statistical chance as one another. The Stanzi would have to do his best impression of both Big Ben and T. Brady. Both QBs were able to win in their second year and both represent the kind of statistically anomaly Stanzi would have to embrace.

Brady Quinn would have to impersonate Jake Delhomme or Trent Dilfer. Both men were able to take their teams to the Super Bowl in their debut seasons with their respective clubs.

Honestly, I don’t put much merit into numbers without knowing the full story. The averages are just that and the numbers don’t come without outliers. This whole post is actually just a big pile of crap and does not offer any real supporting evidence that Matt Cassel has a chance of winning a Super Bowl or even making it there. Many on here will disregard any of these numbers and just flat out say, “Matt Cassel sucks and he will not win a Super Bowl.” To that I say, “Eh, you’re probably right.”

Nonetheless, this season I’ll cheer for Matt to do well while calling him bad, bad names when he screws up and I couldn’t be more excited about it. I hope someone found this information interesting or just enjoyed a nice little read. I enjoy all of the posts on this great website and look forward to the upcoming weeks and months leading up to the season. Be well Chiefs Fans!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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