First of all, It is not that I believe the position/role isnt important. I DO! However, my point is that drafting these guys and having one of them pan out is harder than it looks. In fact, the odds and history show that its not a safe bet for the first round. I ran down the drafts since 2001 and found some interesting numbers. Of all the DT/NT/3-4DE taken in the 1st round (or very early 2nd), only 9 of 44 were deserving of the pick. Thats a 20.4% chance of the pick working out. I have not run a similar scenario with other positions but I am sure the chances are better. Here are the players:
2011-not including these as the sample size is too small.
2010-Suh, Gerald McCoy, Tyson Alualu, Dan Williams, Jared Odrick, Brian Price. Suh is obviously the only player worth the pick.
2009-Tyson Jackson, BJ Raji, Peria Jerry, Ziggy Hood; Raji the only player worth the selection
2008-Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Kentwan Balmer, Phillip Merling; No one in this class was worth the pick; Sorry Glenn, I love you but not at #5
2007-Amobi Okoye, Adam CArriker, Justin Harrell, Alan Branch; again nobody of value in 1st rd.
2006-Haloti Ngata, Broderick Bunkley, John McCargo; Ngata is a stud, other guys suck and werent worth 1st rd.
2005-Travis Johnson, Mike Patterson, Luis Castillo, Shaun Cody; Poe reminds me of the excitement people felt for Cody; none of these guys warrant a 1st rd.
2004-Tommie Harris, Vince Wilfork, Marcus Tubbs, and Junior Siavii; Wilfork was worthy the rest were not
2003-Dwayne Robertson, Kevin Williams, Jonathan Sullivan, Jimmy Kennedy, William Joseph; Williams was worth the pick the rest were bums.
2002- Ryan Sims John Henderson, Wendall Bryant, Albert Haynesworth; Haynesworth was worth the pick for 3 yrs. Henderson has had a good career;
2001-Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Damione Lewis, Marcus Stroud, Casey Hampton, Ryan Pickett. Seymour and Hampton were worth the pick. thats it.
Again, its not that the position isnt important its that it is far too risky in the first round. Many of these guys were horrendous failures. But hey, maybe of this years group we will be lucky enough to grab the 1 out of Poe, Cox, Still, Worthy, Brockers, Ta'amu that will pan out. But I doubt it. Draft these guys in later rounds!!!!!!!