We are far behind. Baseball statistics are far past football statistics. Baseball has what you call advanced statistics, or sabermetrics. Sabermetics, as defined in dictionary.com, is the "computerized measurement of baseball statistics." All that we ever do on here is speculate which, don't get me wrong, I love reading, but I don't like to constantly hear David DeCastro is strong, fast, smart... Instead, get into the statistics. Yes, you can find statistics even on a guard. Tell me how many penalties he is going to save us, and then how many yards those penalties will save us. Or, how many sacks he will save us, and how that will affect Cassel. Look around, you will be able to find statistics on how Cassel performs when he isn't pressured. If we can figure out equations to get these "advanced statistics," it will give us all much more insight as to how the player will perform. What I am trying to get at is Football is viewed upon as a subjective, or opinionated, sport, so if we can get a head start and start making it objective, statistical, it will be a lot more interesting. In this article, I will show you how we can change it to objective, apply it to real players, and compare Peyton Manning to Matt Cassel.
Bill James, the statistical groundbreaker, revolutionized baseball. If any of you have seen the movie Moneyball, Bill James is the one who created that concept. Billy Beane just applied it to the A's. Bill James created hundreds of equations that truly give an insight as to how the player will perform. Some of these equations are Runs Created, Runs Saved, and Win Shares. All of these equations use traditional statistics, and combine to get a player down to one number. For instance, Alex Gordon's traditional statistics showed that he created 100 runs in 2011. Wait this is a football blog isn't it? Oh yeah, how to create them. Since we don't have the ability to put all of these statistics together, a logical way to project a players stats is to find the player's average, the league's average, then average those. All you need to do is look for just about every statistic you can find of a certain player, then just use logic. For example, say Jamaal Charles has 5 yards per carry for his entire career. Since Thomas Jones is leaving, figure out about how many carries Jamaal will have. Multiply that by Jamaal's 5 YPC. Once you have his projected yards, figure out the league average yards per TD, Jamaal's average yards per TD, then average them. Take that number and multiply it by Jamaal's projected yards. Now you have projected how many TD's he will score. Multiply that by 7 and now you know how many points he will create. It is fairly simple and very fun to do.
In my predictions, I compared Peyton Manning to Matt Cassel. My first equation is called QB TD efficiency(QTE). I first found the league average QTE. Last year, the league threw for 108,891 yards and 677 touchdowns. I simply divided TD/ Yards. I got a league average QTE of .0062172264 then I found that Matt Cassel had a .0068360635 QTE. So, I roughly predict that Matt Cassel will have a .006526649 QTE in 2012. I applied it to his current stats, and it was pretty accurate. For Manning, I found a .0066313275 QTE. That alone should give you a huge insight on Cassel. All that means is that Manning and Cassel are very similar in terms of TD/yards. Next, I needed to predict the yards thrown for Manning, which is obviously very difficult to do considering he is coming off of an injury, ending his career, and switching teams. So, I figured a rough estimate by comparison. I compared old Peyton to Joe Montana coming to the Chiefs. Montana's yards dropped an average of 268, or 8.9%, when coming to KC. So with his 2007-2010 statistics average, I predicted that, with the 8.9% taken off, Peyton would throw for around 4,300 yards. But now on to the comparison. Manning vs. Cassel. With a base of 500 attempts for each, I projected that Manning will throw for 3,461 yards, which equates to 23 touchdowns. Also using 500 attempts, Cassel will throw for 3312 yards, or 21 touchdowns. Now how I figured that out was I used the QTE * projected yards, and found the touchdowns throw. Now, obviously Peyton looks to be better, but the difference is with Peyton, you are paying $870,000 per TD while Cassel is just $250,000 per TD.
With my equation, you can look at it one of two ways. If money is not an issue at all, take Peyton. However, if you want to save about 15 million, settle for 2 TD's less and take Cassel. If Brian Daboll uses Cassel right and gives him about 500 attemps, look for Cassel to have major production. I would love to see someone else's perspective of this. I want you guys to evaluate Free Agents, current players, or anyone with your own method of creating advanced statistics. I would also love to see someone challenge my numbers and create different equations to compare Cassel and Manning. Thanks for your time.