NFL Odds Put Peyton Manning To Chiefs At 1.5%

by Joel Thorman on Feb 8, 2012 8:01 AM CST

Gotta love Vegas. You can gamble on anything.

The Indianapolis Colts quarterback will likely become a free agent within weeks as Jim Irsay and the Colts are widely expected to release him before his big March 8 bonus money is due.

That means Manning will likely be a free agent. And Manning is really, really good. Which means everyone (lookin' at you, ESPN) is gonna go bat-sh*t crazy over where he might land next, and that also includes the oddsmakers in Vegas.

R.J. Bell of Pregame.com tells us the odds on Manning landing in Kansas City are currently pegged at about 1.5 percent ($100 wins $5,000). Below the San Francisco 49ers, same as the Tennessee Titans and slightly ahead of the Houston Texans. The odds he retires are set at 20 percent, same as his likelihood of landing with the Miami Dolphins. The Washington Redskins are next at 17 percent, returning to the Indianapolis Colts is at 14 percent and the New York Jets are at 11 percent. Interestingly, the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos are both at three percent. Any other teams outside of the ones I've listed at at six percent.

According to the odds, if Manning does play there's a 78 percent chance it'll be the for the Dolphins, Redskins, Colts or Jets.

Of course, these odds don't really mean anything on the field because we're missing a key piece of information -- Manning's health. That's still a big unknown right now. Different teams are going to view him differently, and thus pay him differently. So that's what makes this so difficult to predict where he'll land.

As for the Chiefs, all signs continue to Matt Cassel starting for the team in Week 1. (Not that they would say, 'Oh, by the way, we wanna sign Peyton Manning!')

via Pregame.com

Retire: 20% ($100 wins $250)
Dolphins: 20% ($100 wins $250)
Redskins: 17% ($100 wins $300)
Colts: 14% ($100 wins $400)
Jets: 11% ($100 wins $500)
Cardinals: 3% ($100 wins $2,500)
Broncos: 3% ($100 wins $2,500)
49ers: 2% ($100 wins $4,000)
Titans: 1.5% ($100 wins $5,000)
Chiefs: 1.5% ($100 wins $5,000)
Texans: 1% ($100 wins $7,500)
Other Team: 6% ($100 wins $1,000)

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Makes me wish I had a spare $100 floating around....

So what Pioli needs to do is bet $100 Grand on the Chiefs getting him, and then we could afford him, right?

by AnkenyChiefsFan on Feb 8, 2012 8:14 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

haaa!

Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Feb 8, 2012 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

Nice!

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by Tarkus on Feb 8, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions

That

Would be brilliant.

Someone needs to get Pioli an email on the sly and offer to cut him in.

Everyone at AP chips in 10 bucks…that’s a hundred thousand dollar bet.

Anyone feel like making millions?

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Feb 8, 2012 1:22 PM CST up reply actions

It should be noted that 50-1 (1.5%)

Is also our odds to win the SB. Not a complete coincidence.

by kcsno56 on Feb 8, 2012 8:19 AM CST reply actions 3 recs

Here's why Vegas is wrong

Dolphins – he’d have to play NE and NYJ twice a year, or maybe 3 times a year if they make the playoffs.
Redskins – Same division as lil bro. He will not steal Eli’s thunder that way….
Colts – He will be cut. The Colts will get and start Andrew Luck, and save $28 mil in badly needed cap space.
Jets – See Dolphins, Miami. Plus going to the same town will steal lil bro’s thunder in NY.
Cards – With their line? Manning would rather be behind Albert, Asamoah, Hudson, Lilja/DeCastro, and RT to be named later.
Broncos – Would not want to compete for attention with The One.
49er’s – I think they will roll with Alex Smith, but this is a possibility. Same conference as lil bro, though.
Titans – possible.
Chiefs – 1-2 people away from a solid line, lotso offensive weapons, and a defense that is showing promise.
Texans – No way they dump Schaub.

KC, baby, all the way!!

by AnkenyChiefsFan on Feb 8, 2012 8:20 AM CST reply actions

If Vegas is 'wrong'

You should be making a bet.

by kcsno56 on Feb 8, 2012 8:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

yup

by upamtn on Feb 8, 2012 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

yep

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by Tarkus on Feb 8, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions

Here's why you're wrong

Dolphins – Manning fears no one
Redskins – I doubt he cares about “stealing thunder.” Eli has more superbowl rings then him now anyway.
Colts – Maybe he’d go back at a much lower salary to mentor Luck
Jets – Manning fears no one, and being in same city as lil brother means they can hang out more
Cards – Manning fears no defense
Broncos – Manning could care less about ‘attention’
49ers – same again same conference as Eli means nothing
Titans – totally impossbile (just to disagree at this point)
Chiefs – Barry Richardson, Barry Richardson, a million times Barry Richardson ( he kinda sucks FYI) Lilja and Wig weren’t all that impressive last year either, so we have 2/5 pieces to a good line, not impressive.
Texans – Manning > Schaub

by OmahaNick on Feb 8, 2012 9:09 AM CST up reply actions

You have to consider that Manning only has 3-4 years of football left

Now why go to a tough division, on a team thats basically rebuilding and miss out on the playoffs because you cant immediatly be better than New England and NYJ…..say you are 11-5, place second in your division, and lose out on the wild card to say…Pittsburgh or Baltimore…Manning is playing for Super Bowl rings….its not about money, he is LOADED…his goal SHOULD be to make the playoffs EVERY year he has left to increase his chances to get another ring or two…if he misses the playoff 2 out of 4 years he just cut his chances in half….its not about fearing anyone, its about being smart…..he SHOULD want to go to a division that is EASY to win and dominate each year…AFC West is THAT division…

Clark Hunt and Scott Pioli need to IMPRESS me in 2012....No Settling this year Chiefs Fans!!

by KCinAZ on Feb 8, 2012 8:16 PM CST up reply actions

I think you are right that Vegas is wrong

Chiefs are closer to being competitive than most of those teams and the others are crazy.

Dolphins, they have some weapons and looked decent at times with Matt Moore, this could be the biggest competition for Manning.
Redskins, really, why would he want to play for Snyder. Since Snyder took over that team it has been a mad house with no discipline.
Jets, nearly the same argument as the Redskins, just more talent and a crazier locker room. Manning would hate either of those locker rooms.
Broncos/Texans – neither team is going to give up on their QB’s yet
Titans – they just drafted a QB in the first round last year so probably not
49ers – I think they will go with Smith as well but aren’t they running a west coast offense, Manning isn’t going to go to a different style offense and I don’t see them changing offenses again
Cards – maybe, they did just pick up Kolb and give him a contract last year. They sounded like they were ready to give up on him but who knows.

Chiefs give him the best chance of winning now. Our Defense is looking good, especially if we resign Carr. With a true franchise QB we could go to a SB next year

Insert witty yet thought provoking phrase here.

by Fozzyboyd on Feb 8, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions

Vegas is probably reading AP.

So they know that Pioli is married to Cassel, and he’ll never have another starting QB for the rest of his career.

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by Tarkus on Feb 8, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions

I like your thinking

but, had to fix the Broncos

Broncos – Would not want to compete for attention with ~~The One~~ The Second Coming.

Please see signature line. :-)

It is time to anoint the Stanzi. He is The One.

by neiowakcfan on Feb 8, 2012 2:02 PM CST up reply actions

there wrong because

there are 32 teams all of them have a 32% chance wtf

by Redreign on Feb 21, 2012 8:34 PM CST up reply actions

Why?

Why in the hell would we want manning,when we got Cassel hahaha,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

by chiefsfool on Feb 8, 2012 8:40 AM CST reply actions

Alex Smith is caddying for Jim Harbaugh today

but Vegas thinks the Niners have a better shot of getting Manning than the Chiefs do? Doesn’t make sense.

by Chief Willie Wildcat on Feb 8, 2012 8:40 AM CST reply actions

yes it does, the 49ers are only a QB from the SB

Smith was mediocre through the year and awful in the playoffs – add Manning and you’d have a very scary team.

by aFan4Life on Feb 8, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

Chiefs have better offensive weapons, but SF has better D.. I think its a toss up

" The world is Yours"

by Jeremy Daniel on Feb 8, 2012 1:08 PM CST up reply actions

Smith was awful against the Saints?

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Feb 8, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions

He was awful in the 4th Q and OT against the NYG

Other than that, and especially against the Saints, he was very solid.

But…I can’t get the image of how how horrid he was late in the NYG game out of my head. My guess is that his ‘11 is basically the same as Cassel’s ’10.

by kcsno56 on Feb 8, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions

Maybe

Although I think Smith has more physical tools to work with than Cassel.

Who know, maybe Harbough is THAT good and Smith will become a top 15 guy next year…

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Feb 8, 2012 4:52 PM CST up reply actions

i really think we r getting manning i mean

There is no way in hell pioli can believe in matt cassel his job is really on the line and their can be now way he can feel matt cassel is the answer at qb. Pioli is in my opinion in the hot seat. He needs to make a major move. Get manning and we r instant contenders. And of course manning needs to be healthy.

FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.

by sexassassin on Feb 8, 2012 8:44 AM CST via mobile reply actions

hi, you must be new here :)

by Topchief1 on Feb 8, 2012 12:32 PM CST up reply actions

If Manning goes to the Doncos...

I will be forced to turn away from football until he retires. The doctor just finally lowered the voltage on my electric shock therapy trying to recover from the Elway days.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not an anti-speciousist… I think it’s great the NFL allowed a transfer team from the Island of Dr. Moreau to settle in the Rockies. But, watching the Rat-man lead his horse-human hybrid to so many last second wins over my Chiefs shot my nerves to hell. Indy and the playoffs were like phase two of my “reduced to thumb sucking” depression.

I can’t imagine combining the two.

People say nothing is impossible, but they're wrong. I do nothing all the time.

by juvatbull on Feb 8, 2012 8:51 AM CST via mobile reply actions

wait, so he's 4x less likely to go to the Chiefs than he is either the Packers or Pats?

In that case, can I bet $10 million that he doesn’t go to the Packers? What kind of a payout would that be? (and anyone have $10m I can borrow for 6 months?)

Predictions:
I'm going to stop predicting positive things

by jmcgoblue on Feb 8, 2012 8:57 AM CST reply actions

I was thinking the exact same thing....

Arrowhead pride addict

by groundedchevy on Feb 8, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions

I wish the Colts would cut the guy already...

So he can sign somewhere else, and we can get over this Manning-to-the-Chiefs fantasy.

My earliest Chiefs memories are watching guys named Dawson, Podolak, Taylor, Thomas, Bell, and Buchanan. So, yeah...I'm kind of an old fart.

by Scott B. on Feb 8, 2012 9:02 AM CST reply actions 2 recs

Manning needs to bet on this...

Get your $28 million back that you’re about to lose. I mean c’mon, this is the closest thing to a sure fire bet that Manning could ever make.

by DEEJAYDEEZ on Feb 8, 2012 9:07 AM CST reply actions

They have relatively small limits on bets like these

They also wouldn’t accept a bet from Peyton on this.

Also, if you’re betting a significant amount for someone else, legally, you are required to fill out a form stating who the bet is for.

And yes, I know you’re probably not serious.

by kcsno56 on Feb 8, 2012 11:04 AM CST up reply actions

Seriously, everyone on AP pitches on making separate bets....

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Feb 8, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions

And then he trusts AP members to hand over him the $ after we all win?

by kcsno56 on Feb 8, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly

Hey, if he got us Peyton Manning most of us would be happy enough to be willing to hand over some of the cash…

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Feb 8, 2012 4:53 PM CST up reply actions

one thing that gets me ...

2 years ago in the midst of out 10-6 season, as we were gearing up to play the Colts, the Big Buzz was how we’d beat the Colts, our defense was “complete” and “Manning alone” wasn’t good enough to win, etc etc

we lost

ok, so … we were wrong? of course not! we only lost because this excuse, that excuse, every excuse in the book excuse … IOW … Manning got lucky

so, why is it people here want him?

by upamtn on Feb 8, 2012 9:10 AM CST reply actions

Well everyone wants Luck, but if we can't have him we should at least get someone lucky

by OmahaNick on Feb 8, 2012 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

because he is a great QB, he's what made them a 10-6 team and not a 2-14 team

by aFan4Life on Feb 8, 2012 12:23 PM CST up reply actions

This is almost worth a bet.

Colts at 14%? Are they for real?

"Give them nothing! But take from them everything!"

by GenericBrand on Feb 8, 2012 11:09 AM CST reply actions

Throwing down coin on....

Arizona, San Francisco, Kansas City

by HisDirkness on Feb 8, 2012 11:46 AM CST reply actions

Christian Okoye was on 610 last week

or maybe it was 810. he said he had the same type of neck surgery Peyton had and he said strength in the arms and shoulders is a big deal with that type of thing and he wondered if Peyton could be as effective.

by rdc on Feb 8, 2012 1:07 PM CST reply actions

Per the Nightmare....still no reply function

When did he have his surgury? Pretty sure there have been a few medical advances since his playing days.

Standing on the corner in a white Godfather hat. He drives a long black gangster Cadillac. He can steal a broads mind, man, in three or four minutes. It’s not how long you talk, brother, it’s what you put in it.

by HIV 2 Elway on Feb 8, 2012 1:24 PM CST reply actions

With Manning stating that he is willing

to sign with little or no up front and a performance-laden contract, I’m surprised retirement is at 20%. He sounds intent on playing somewhere.

It is time to anoint the Stanzi. He is The One.

by neiowakcfan on Feb 8, 2012 2:04 PM CST reply actions

I agree with this...

But I suppose it is possible (at at least a 20% clip) that he doesn’t want to retire, yet isn’t able to play at a level which would allow him to continue.

by kcsno56 on Feb 8, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions

Manning will stay in the AFC if the Colts cut him.

Peyton Manning is one of the most competitive QB’s in the league. I guarantee that if he leaves the Colts he will have a huge chip on his shoulder and would love to play them just to prove Irsay wrong. That being said I believe that he will stay in Indy (ala Favre and Rogers)…He’ll play for a season or two with Luck looking over his shoulder plus the fans wont be too eager to see Luck replace Manning. If Manning starts to suck or has injury problems; release him and you already have his replacement.

by MartyBall on Feb 8, 2012 7:30 PM CST reply actions

I grew up in Indiana

and the Colts fanbase is relatively new. Manning and Polian built this franchise from the ground up if they get rid of Peyton and Luck turns out to be a flop (easy, considering the expectations this kid already has) then it will turn into Colts circa 1980s: no one goes to the game and they are the doormat of the league again. That city (and state) has always been and will always be a basketball state.

by MartyBall on Feb 8, 2012 7:37 PM CST reply actions