How much does the Chiefs lack of spending hurt their chances?
by KHAZAD on Feb 6, 2012 10:24 AM CST
Email
PrintA few weeks ago, in the comment section to one the 188 Peyton Manning posts, I made some comments about the Chiefs spendthrift ways.
I pointed out that KC ranked last in payroll spending over the last 4 seasons and had spent $119 million less than the average team, and $69 million less than the 30th place Bengals, meaning that 29 of the other 31 teams were closer to the average than we were to 30th place. I also compared their spending to our division rivals. I received many replies, some defending Clark Hunt and one that asked me to show a correlation between spending and winning.
This intrigued me, so I decided to do some research to find the relationship between spending and winning. The results after the jump!
First, some background and methodology. Prior to 2008, the NFL chose to opt out of the CBA. Since that time, there has been unprecedented freedom in payroll spending in the NFL. (and it continues this year) This also dovetails nicely with the first season Clark Hunt was fully in charge during the prior off season. The gap between the top spending Cowboys and the bottom spending Chiefs was $215 million. From 2013 to 2016, the first 4 years with the full cap and floor of the new CBA, the most that gap could be is about $48 million.
After calculating the 4 year payroll totals, I broke the 32 NFL teams down into 3 groups: The top 8 spending teams (25%), the bottom 8 spending teams (25%), and a control group of the 16 teams (50%) closest to the middle. I shall refer to these as the top, middle and bottom.
A quick look at the grouping of the teams showed that spending was not a guarantee of individual success. The top group includes the hapless Redskins, the Raiders, and the top spending mediocre Cowboys. The middle group has both very successful and very unsuccessful teams. This years AFC champion Pats, last years Super Bowl champion (and this years best regular season record) Packers, and the Ravens, the only team to make the playoffs all 4 years. It also includes the three teams with the worst regular season records. (Rams, Browns, Lions) The bottom group includes the Falcons, who made the playoffs 3 of the 4 years, and the Cardinals, who have a conference championship. However, as groups, the correlation between spending and winning is VERY strong.
As groups, the middle spent the average $442 million per team. The top spent an average of $499 million or $57 million above average, the bottom spent an average of $385 million, or $57 million below average. (Still well above the Chiefs $323 million)
The first thing I did was look at regular season success.
Top: 8.81 wins per season, a .551 winning percentage
Middle: 8.04 wins per season, a .502 winning percentage
Bottom: 7.11 wins per season, a .444 winning percentage
I then looked at the distribution of highly successful or unsuccessful seasons. More than half of all NFL team seasons end up with somewhere between 6-10 wins. 22.66% of seasons finish with 11 wins or more, 22.66% of seasons finish with 5 or less wins. The chances of having one of these "good" and "bad" season across the groups correlates strongly as well.
Top: 31.25% good, 15.63% bad
Middle: 25% good, 18.75% bad
Bottom: 9.38% good, 37.5% bad
A team's playoff chances correlates as well, but not as strongly as you might think. A look at the percentage of seasons ending in playoff appearances.
Top: 13 in 32 total seasons-40.63%
Middle: 25 in 64 total seasons-39.06%
Bottom: 10 in 32 total seasons-31.25%
However, once a team gets to the playoffs, what happens afterwards has a strong correlation. I used the "Carl Peterson method" of wins + byes to see how many the average team in each group had.
Top (8 teams): 24 (3.0 per team)
Middle (16 teams): 29 (1.81 per team)
Bottom (8 teams): 7 (0.88 per team)
I then decided I was giving too much credit for byes, and decided to look at the actual record of the teams after they made the playoffs.
Top: 19-10, a .655 winning percentage
Middle: 20-24, a .455 winning percentage
Bottom: 5-10, a .333 winning percentage
Conference championships and Super Bowl wins:
Top: 4 Conference, 3 Super Bowls
Middle: 3 Conference, 1 Super Bowl
Bottom: 1 Conference, 0 Super Bowls
There have been 44 post season games the last 4 years, and 29 of them featured opponents from different financial groups. (Top vs. Middle or Bottom, Middle vs. Bottom) The higher financial group went 20-9 (.690 winning percentage) in those games.
After seeing these numbers, I think that there is no doubt that higher payroll spending increases your chances of success in the NFL in this era. With no salary floor as well as leeway on the salary cap in 2012, how the Chiefs choose to approach their spending this year will definitely be something for us all to watch. Will they continue to take advantage and spend as little as possible, or will they increase their spending this year to get to (or at least much closer to) the 2013 salary floor? (which they were about $35 million below in 2011) If they truly wanted to make a serious run this year, they could increase their payroll close to $50 million this year and only have to stay even in 2013 to make the cap. Will Clark step up, or will he be content with lining his pockets while he still has the chance?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
32 comments
|
8 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Great research here
I think that, with the new rules, we will see more spending, if not this offseason, then the next one…if I got that right.
When you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail.
Jamaal above all. #25 ftw.
CHIEFS WILL!
by NJChieffan16 on Feb 6, 2012 10:36 AM CST via mobile reply actions
He can start by resigning
Bowe, Carr, McClain, and putting in a strong offer for Payton. Draft DeCastro or Martin with the #12 pick.
by DizzyKC on Feb 6, 2012 10:49 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
Draft picks cost much less now, so there is no excuse for not being aggressive in FA for guys that obviously fit our system. You don’t have to go “Full Eagle” but if we don’t make a strong play for guys like Paul Soliai, Matt Slater, and Manning — I will be very angry.
I think the consensus among fans is that if we can’t get Manning, we need to at least re-sign Orton and put in the extra money to upgrade our defense, O-Line, etc.
Nicknames I have coined:
Jamaal Charles = 'Haley's Comet'
Shaun Smith = 'Big Nasty'
Kelly Gregg = 'Old Gregg'
That's the consensus among fans...
Now if we can just get Hunt and Pioli to listen… ;-D
by AnkenyChiefsFan on Feb 6, 2012 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
I'll decide if/when we let Carr and Bowe walk
And don’t make any moves in FA this year.
The spendthrift ways up until now COULD be justified on grounds that we want to keep our own and that Pioli didn’t view us as “ready” enough to justify spending big.
Starting this year, that changes IMO.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
This
Our payroll has been low because we have so much young talent in their first contract. Wait until we re-sign that young talent and then see where we’re at salarycap-wise. Every stat needs context to make sense including salary numbers.
"Give them nothing! But take from them everything!"
by GenericBrand on Feb 6, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
Youth is good, but you also need the right mix of veterans
And Pioli has been hit-and-miss so far on the veterans he has tried to bring in.
Nicknames I have coined:
Jamaal Charles = 'Haley's Comet'
Shaun Smith = 'Big Nasty'
Kelly Gregg = 'Old Gregg'
yeah, agreed
it’s not just how much you spend, but also HOW you spend that matters
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
There are other teams
with alot of young talent, and entering this year we were an incumbent playoff team with the possibility of making a run this year. We had a weak division, easily identifiable weaknesses (the most obvious one being lack of depth), an unprecedented # of free agent players to choose from, and a gargantuan amount of allowable money to spend. We responded by reducing our payroll even further and cutting Waters to save money.
When faced with reality, the rabid fan’s default stance is denial.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
so, let's see what happens this off-season
if Pioli keeps Bowe and Carr and a few others, and at least makes a play for even Orton to improve the QB position … if he spends some money and maybe brings in Soliai for example … then we’re still in about the same place: great chance of making a run in a weak division
but we still need to address depth and a few major holes to fill, regardless of money spent or not spent
spending money just to spend money doesn’t always work out well, as shown by the Eagles and the Redskins … same could be said of tossing high draft picks for one QB (see: Raiders, Oakland)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I, too
would like to see what happens this off season. IMHO this is Clark Hunt’s last chance to show he is serious about spending the money to build a winner. The NFL will force him to in 2013, and with only about a $13 or $14 million dollar window to shoot for, the ranking will not mean as much then. I hope he surprises me.
As for the efficiency of the money you spend, that is a function of the owner and GM. You can spend your money efficiently or stupidly whether you spend a lot or a little. If you do not trust your GM to spend that money wisely you should get a new one.
I certainly have no desire for Clark to turn into Daniel Snyder. My second favorite team is the Redskins (I am originally from Virginia) and I have painfully seen first hand what can happen when an owner tries to evaluate talent and run the team by overpaying for names that he knows. Interestingly enough, though, the Eagles are not in the top group, despite having a few well publicized name contracts this year.
I don’t think there is any danger of the Chiefs management throwing away draft picks like candy like the Raiders (and prior to this year, the Redskins) have done, and I am glad of that.
I just want to see an honest effort this off season to shore up the weaknesses that were painfully exposed last year. It is true they could make the playoffs in a (projected) weak division just by having a healthy year even if they kept payroll low, had a good draft, and stood pat, but I would still be unhappy that they did not spend the available money to shape this team into one capable of making a splash once they get there.
I want them to show me a desire and commitment to winning. I think the level of the FO’s commitment to improvement last off season was unacceptable.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
All very well said
And you make many legit points there.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
We reduced payroll while signing Hali and Flowers to gigantic contracts and giving Breaston a sizable one?
That’s more impressive than anything else IMO.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
Except when Charles, Berry, Moeaki, and even Cassel were hurt we saw exactly where that money was saved.
"Hater" is a term used by weak-minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
I disagree (except on the Palko part)
The problem was we lost our best players, and our backups (who are sub-average NFL players, or they wouldn’t be backups) we a huge dropoff.
It’s one thing when an average starter (or even a good starter) gets hurt. It’s another thing when players that are supposed to be the key to your team get hurt.
Swap in the backup RB, SS, and TE from most teams in the NFL and I believe you’d see similar results.
Dead on with Palko though. That was criminal
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
Really? You’re saying that there aren’t any better back up safeties than Sabby Piscitelli and Donald Washington? How about Jones and Battle? Neither should have been the number two going into the season. The tight end position was such a carousel all season. That should have been figured out in what limited time they had available after the lockout instead of trying to be different.
"Hater" is a term used by weak-minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
Wasn't McGraw our backup safety
And also got hurt?
As far as the RB position goes… After losing our top RB, we managed to stay in the top half of the league in rushing despite terrible QB play (allowing teams to stack the box) and poor interior blocking. What’s the beef there?
TE I could go with, though.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
Going into the season the safeties outside of Lewis and Berry included McGraw, Piscitelli, Langford, and Washington. That’s a pretty obvious lack of depth.
The running back position wasn’t exactly the cause of many losses. They should little ability to convert in the red zone last year when Charles was healthy. I still think there were better options than Jones and Battle.
"Hater" is a term used by weak-minded people in the face of legitimate criticism.
We had problems running the ball in the RZ with JC too
Just sayin’.
I’m not saying our depth was great. We can agree that it was shaky at best.
However, to say that we “saved” money on depth that would even come CLOSE to equalling what we spent on Hali, Flowers, and Breaston isn’t even close to the mark.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
I disagree (except on the Palko part)
The problem was we lost our best players, and our backups (who are sub-average NFL players, or they wouldn’t be backups) we a huge dropoff.
It’s one thing when an average starter (or even a good starter) gets hurt. It’s another thing when players that are supposed to be the key to your team get hurt.
Swap in the backup RB, SS, and TE from most teams in the NFL and I believe you’d see similar results.
Dead on with Palko though. That was criminal
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
yes great read
I believe it is spending to retain talent. Pick up talented FA that are not pipe dreams. And drafting well..do not trade draft picks for a super old Carson Palmer..ect
by KrazyChiefsfan on Feb 6, 2012 11:29 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Great read
My wishes for a perfect of season:
1). Sign Carr long term
2). Sign Bowe long term
3).My Must Have Sign Soliai from Miami at any expense
4). Sign Mclain FB
5). Draft a RT!!!! 1st round
6). Draft a TE,ILB or RG 2rd best value
I would be very excited about upcoming season with these group of players for us.
Jay Hennessy III
Add Peyton Manning, if he is healthy
and I will be right there with you. We must upgrade QB…if not Manning, at least bring back Orton….
by AnkenyChiefsFan on Feb 6, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
good post , My only comment would be that just maybe clark and co.were stock pileing cash through out the rebuild years, knowing that they would be throwing money out the window if they spent during the rebuild.
The bulletts are still in the gun to spend now, and with a few FA pick up the time is to spend now. I will be very pissed, if the chiefs hold back again on spending, when the chiefs are very close to being a contender.
will the chiefs ever draft a Qb in the first round, not since todd blackledge in 83. and the chiefs could of had marino. OH well atleast 65 toss power trap worked for KC, it should be wide open red. Hank stram still the man.
I guess the difference is
I thought there were bullets in the gun last year, and they chose to stockpile cash rather than sell out for a winner in a very open FA market. This off season is Clark’s last chance for me to trust that he will do what is necessary to build a winning team when faced with the choice of committing to that, or stockpiling cash again.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
Lining HIs Pockets--duh!
The Hunt’s spent about $200 million as their contribution to Arrowhead’s renovation, right?
Is not their ongoing lack of action and passivity in the F/A market not sufficient proof they planned to get as much of their capital back as quickly as possible? And hasn’t this period of no floor on spending been the perfect opportunity to maximize their return of capital in the shortest time possible?
I told my girls when they started dating to never pay any attention to what the boys said, but only to what the boys did.
We have had all this blather and propaganda about young smart fast big intelligent player’s and the “Right 53”, and then watched us cut people like Brian Waters or Gaither and have them immediately become productive elsewhere. We have spent the last few off seasons watching other teams snap up free agents even we the uneducated fans knew we should take.
Until they start really spending money, it is all just BS, and Kahzad’s outstanding post here makes it clear they have not cared because they have bright people and no doubt have a similar analysis sitting in some file cabinet. My guess is if we see any significant signings this year it is only in anticipation of having to try and reach the minimum floor next year.
Nevertheless, I am a chiefs fan and will continue to follow/root for them, but I will NOT spend any money until they do so!
!st rec in a long time...
Winning starts at the top…some are all in, some are not. Someone needs to tell Clark…it’s time, either shit, or get off the pot.
by 12t on Feb 6, 2012 6:05 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'm going to go the other way with this....
The fact that they haven’t spent money and are way under the cap is a BENEFIT to this team right now, because we could land Bowe, Carr, AND Manning with the cap space we have left, and get a couple FA besides…
Hey Mr. Hunt, open that wallet and pay Manning what he wants to come here, and you could bring a trophy to Arrowhead…
It is only
a benefit if they actually do spend the money. I hope that they do, but given their past actions, I certainly would not bet on it happening.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
For those that excuse the last 4 years
As part of a rebuilding project…
I would like to offer exhibit A.
This isn’t the last 4 years, this is the last decade.
As I said many times during the last offseason, thank god for the minimum spending rules in the new CBA. Best thing that could’ve happened to Chiefs fans. Too bad it doesn’t kick in until next year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Detroit Lions DT Nick Fairley arrested again; now has more NFL arrests than NFL sacks
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
- Adrian Peterson blows teammates away in footraces; appears to be on the mend
- UPDATE: Charlie Sheen didn’t buy Lawrence Taylor’s Super Bowl ring
