FanPost

A Look at the Case for RG3

Prepare for a decent read!!!! Not for the faint of heart. I did my best to add some pics and keep it thin. For the record, I just want a good quarterback in kc. I don't care who it is. I am convinced that Cassel is incapable of winning a Superbowl (neither is Orton, they're the same skill level just different styles). Just winning a playoff game is not going to cut it with the talent on this team. It could be Manning, Flynn, Robert Griffin III, Stanzi. Today, I present the case for RG3. I have looked at QB bust s from 1998-2008 of those picked in the top ten and why we should not factor their failures into RG3's chances. Also, read the link to look at all positions for top 10 pick busts, since we are basically picking there. I added a list of the draft positions of current Pro Bowlers so you all can see where the elite (except the Super Bowl players) come from. Finally, I examine likely trade possibilities with the Rams.

The list of quarterbacks and other positions drafted in the top ten 1998-2008

Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith

6 Hits. 9 busts. 6/15 = 40% success rate. Almost one out of two picks is a good QB.

By the way, busts or successes for quarterbacks after 2008 still aren't totally known yet (even Alex Smith can turn his image around).

Examining the causes of failure:

1. Russell - Horrible work ethic (most likely due to his affinity for skittles)

Jamarcus-russell-skittles-239x300_medium

via www.obsessedwithsports.com


2. Vince Young - Promising until immaturity and mental problems ended his run (And he already was on a dream team before the Eagles. The Bust Dream Team baby.)

3. Matt Lineart - Also labeled as immature/lazy. Lost qb battles to Warner and Derek Who?

4. Alex Smith - Thought of as a pure bust until this year. Now is just a mediocre quarterback. The ending of the Saints - Niners game gives him a promising future. Bust for now

5. Byron Leftwich - Promising start until ankle injuries

6. David Carr - David Carr Syndrome is now an official medical condition. Symptoms include a horrible offensive line, a terrible running game, and being sacked 76 times in one season...wow

7. Joey Harrington - No real reason to point out his failure besides not much of a leader. Just flat out busted. Sing us a song you're a piano man now.

8. Tim Couch - Some promise but injuries

9. Akili Smith - One season of success in college. Held out during rookie training camp. Couldn't understand offense.

Analysis: One had really no explanation for their bust other than being bad. One was overhyped after one good season in college (kinda sounds like Mark Sanchez huh?) and low football IQ. One has been labeled a bust but signs point to him turning it around. Three were linked to on the field problems such as a poor offensive line or injuries. Three lacked the mental qualities with immaturity/laziness/depression

Where RG3 differs: Robert Griffin III (or Really Good X 3) has great potential. Courtesy of walterfootball.com

11_16robert-griffin-iii_medium

via www.pageblip.com

Strengths:

 Great arm strength

 Quick release

 Accurate thrower

 Smart; protects the football

 Good field vision

 Extremely mobile with scrambling ability

 Very intelligent

 Proven leader; passion for the game

 Winner at collegiate level

 Experienced 3-year starter

 Clutch performer who plays at his best in crunch time

 Good teammate without an ego

 Plays with swagger

 Opens up mismatches for teammates with dual-threat nature

 High-character individual


Weaknesses:

 Height is a touch short

 Could use some more bulk to handle hitting

 Rarely played against a top defense

 Did not play in a pro-stye offense

 Rarely took snaps from under center

Summary: Griffin was the most dangerous playmaker in college football in 2011. He did the most with the least and led his team to wins against programs the school could never compete with in past years. Despite a horrible defense and suspect offensive line, Griffin lit up scoreboards on a weekly basis. Griffin completed 72 percent of his passes for 4,293 yards with 37 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2011. He has also rushed for 699 yards and 10 touchdowns. Griffin won the Heisman Trophy for his dominant season.

Over his collegiate years, Griffin has been a consistent performer who has shown steady improvement. In 2008, Griffin started playing as a freshman. He completed 59 percent of his passes for 2,091 yards with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. That season he ran for 1,118 yards and 13 touchdowns. He lost almost all of the 2009 season to injury. The year after, he had a completion percentage of 67 percent for 3,501 yards and 22 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He ran for 808 yards and eight scores.

Griffin has a strong arm, and his accuracy on throws deep downfield is truly remarkable. To all levels of the field, Griffin is extremely accurate throwing the ball. He can fire ropes on deep outs, all while making good decisions in the process.

Griffin is a fantastic athlete with speed to burn. He is a track competitor; when he breaks into the open field, he rips off yards in an instant. This season, Griffin also showed the grit to take some big hits and stay in the game.

Griffin is also a high-character individual who is very intelligent. He has the makings of a franchise quarterback on and off the field. Griffin has the toughness to be successful, but will have to be developed some at the NFL level, and learn how to operate a pro style offense. There isn't a competitor with Griffin to be the second quarterback behind Andrew Luck.

Player Comparison: Steve McNair. Griffin's foot speed and running ability is similar to Eagles' quarterback Michael Vick, but Griffin is a much better passer than Vick, and that makes the comparison closer to McNair. Over a long NFL career, McNair was an accurate pocket passer who could make big plays with feet. Griffin has the same skill set where he can sit in the pocket and beat teams with his arm, or he can take off and make a splash play on the ground. Like McNair, Griffin is 6-foot-2 and has enough height to play the position. McNair was taken with the third-overall pick and Griffin is likely to go in the top five of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Projecting Griffin to the pros, however, I see a player with the ability to be a player like McNair. -end walterfootball

Alright. Let's compare to the busts.

Is he immature/lazy? No.

Is he a one year wonder? No.

Is he injury prone? Possibly but leaning towards no. Had one year of injury.

Will he get injured? TBA.

Can he adapt to the NFL after playing in the spread? Alex Smith seems to have done so. I can't seem to remember any others though. Oh wait I heard that one rookie in Carolina did pretty good this year...wait didn't he set a rookie passing record?

Since RG3 lacks immaturity and is an established college quarterback, let's eliminate 4 from the 9 in our percentages due to different makeup.

6/11= 55%

Now let's eliminate David Carr because the Chief's o-line and running game isn't epic in a bad way. 6/10 = 60%

Then if Alex Smith continues his momentum.....7/10=70%

So it stands at 60% with the injury risks. Now let's say that RG3 does not have multiple year ending injuries and eliminate the qbs that failed due to injury. That improves his chance of success to 9/10 = 90%. That means his chance of success has a floor of 60% currently and a ceiling of 90% based on history.

O-line is the safest position in the draft in the top ten according to the above article:

1. WR - 17/12 - 70% BR
2. QB - 15/9 - 60% BR
3. DE - 11/6 - 54% BR
4. TE - 2/1 - 50% BR
5. DT - 10/4 - 40% BR
6. RB - 11/4 - 36% BR
7-T. LB - 9/3 - 33% BR
7-T. CB - 9/3 - 33% BR
8. S - 5/1 - 20% BR
9. OL - 11/1 - 9% BR

Bust factors for first round draft picks by position, 1998-2007

Position

1st Rd

Top 10

Busts

Bust %

Quarterbacks

28

16

13

46%

Running Backs

30

12

9

30%

Wide Receivers

43

17

20

47%

Tight Ends

13

2

1

8%

Total O-Line

41

11

3

7%

Centers

4

0

0

0%

Guards

9

0

1

11%

Tackles

28

11

2

7%

TOTAL OFFENSE

155

58

46

31%

That table comes from this link. It's a good read on all 1st round draft bust rates.

And for you supporters of trade down that will tell you how we will fare by position (I'm guessing some of you are screaming o-line right about now).

In theory, if you believe that RG3 will not be injured multiple times, his chance of success is slightly lower than that of a Mr. Jonathon Martin or a Mr. Riley Reiff or a Mr. David Decastro. If you factor in multiple injuries, its 20 - 30 % lower.

Now look at the list below. This is the case for not drafting a OL with our first pick. 4/6 pro bowl guards were drafted round 3 or later (<3 Brian Waters). Why go with a guard with our first pick if we have a good chance of finding one in a later round or in free agency. Now, for tackle, all those tackles are LT. We would be most likely drafting a RT. From looking around the web. I saw Albert allowed 5 sacks this year (less than Joe Thomas). This article says he's ranked 12th for LTs . With better lineman, a respected running game, and a quick RG3 around him, expect those numbers to improve.

4087-carl_20nicks_saints_biography_mediumI wouldn't mind this guy as our LG. He's only 26

via www.browsebiography.com

Position

Team

Name

Drafted

Round

Pick

QB

Patriots

Tom Brady

2000

6

33

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger

2004

1

11

Chargers

Philip Rivers

2004

1

4

Packers

Aaron Rodgers

2005

1

24

Saints

Drew Brees

2001

2

1

Giantss

Eli Manning

2004

1

1

RB

Ravens

Ray Rice

2008

2

24

Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew

2006

2

28

Texans

Arian Foster

Eagles

LeSean McCoy

2009

2

21

Bears

Matt Forte

2008

2

13

49ers

Frank Gore

2005

3

1

WR

Patriots

Wes Welker

Steelers

Mike Wallace

2009

3

20

Bengals

A.J. Green

2011

1

4

Broncos

Brandon Marshall

2006

4

22

Lions

Calvin Johnson

2007

1

2

Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald

2004

1

3

Panthers

Steve Smith

2001

3

12

Packers

Greg Jennings

2006

2

20

TE

Patriots

Rob Gronkowski

2010

2

10

Chargers

Antonio Gates

Saints

Jimmy Graham

2010

3

31

Falcons

Tony Gonzalez

1997

1

13

T

Browns

Joe Thomas

2007

1

3

Dolphins

Jake Long

2008

1

1

Jets

D'Brickashaw Ferguson

2006

1

4

Eagles

Jason Peters

49ers

Joe Staley

2007

1

28

Saints

Jermon Bushrod

2007

4

26

G

Patriots

Logan Mankins

2005

1

32

Patriots

Brian Waters

Ravens

Marshall Yanda

2007

3

23

Saints

Jahri Evans

2006

4

11

Saints

Carl Nicks

2008

5

29

Buccaneers

Davin Joseph

2006

1

23

C

Steelers

Maurkice Pouncey

2010

1

18

Jets

Nick Mangold

2006

1

29

Panthers

Ryan Kalil

2007

2

27

Packers

Scott Wells

2004

7

50

from drafthistory.com

Alright, now for the main argument against RG3: the cost of trading up to the second pick in the draft.

Let's start with the draft a QB next year argument. I'll go with the guys I see consistently in the top 5 rankings for now.

Matt Barkley - should be a top 3 pick as long as one of the top 3 need a QB (stats from espn)

SEASON

CMP

ATT

YDS

CMP%

YPA

LNG

TD

INT

SACK

RAT

2011

308

446

3528

69.1

7.91

82

39

7

8

161.2

2010

236

377

2791

62.6

7.40

61

26

12

16

141.2

2009

211

352

2735

59.9

7.77

75

15

14

17

131.3

Landry Jones - most likely top 10

SEASON

CMP

ATT

YDS

CMP%

YPA

LNG

TD

INT

SACK

RAT

2011

355

562

4463

63.2

7.94

64

29

15

10

141.6

2010

405

617

4718

65.6

7.65

86

38

12

19

146.3

2009

261

449

3198

58.1

7.12

67

26

14

Aaron Murray - Most likely top 15

SEASON

CMP

ATT

YDS

CMP%

YPA

LNG

TD

INT

SACK

RAT

2011

238

403

3149

59.1

7.81

80

35

14

32

146.4

2010

209

342

3049

61.1

8.92

66

24

8

24

154.5

Tyler Bray - depending on senior year. Sometime in the first round

SEASON

CMP

ATT

YDS

CMP%

YPA

LNG

TD

INT

SACK

RAT

2011

147

247

1983

59.5

8.03

81

17

6

11

144.8

2010

125

224

1849

55.8

8.25

80

18

10

16

142.7

Tyler Wilson - depending heavily on senior year performance. Considered to have the highest ceiling. Can go top 10

SEASON

CMP

ATT

YDS

CMP%

YPA

LNG

TD

INT

SACK

RAT

2011

277

438

3638

63.2

8.31

68

24

6

26

148.4

2010

34

51

453

66.7

8.88

54

4

3

3

155.4

2009

22

36

218

61.1

6.06

21

2

2

0

119.2

2008

11

22

69

50.0

3.14

10

1

2

3

73.2

RG3(for comparison)

SEASON

CMP

ATT

YDS

CMP%

YPA

LNG

TD

INT

SACK

RAT

2011

291

402

4293

72.4

10.68

87

37

6

27

189.5

2010

304

454

3501

67.0

7.71

94

22

8

20

144.2

2009

45

69

481

65.2

6.97

42

4

0

4

142.9

2008

160

267

2091

59.9

7.83

61

15

3

28

142.0

The only quarterback I wouldn't touch is Bray, due to lack of experience (hasn't carried a full load yet). Barkley and Jones will be first round picks barring a major setback. Murray will be if he declares, but lately we've seen qbs stay in college an extra year to get more money or whatever they say that they want (Locker, Barkley, Jones). With Barkley and Jones ahead of him and the possibility of Wilson passing ahead of Murray, I can see him going back (Bray might do the same). With only 3 legit 1st round talents guaranteed to be in the draft next year, we now have to consider where the Chiefs will draft. The chiefs went 7-9 this year with 3 key starters injured the whole or almost the whole season. Not to mention enduring the inept Tyler Palko for 4 games (still don't understand why you don't throw Stanzi out there and see what he can do). Also, with the new draft picks not named RG3, we can very easily go 8-8 or better. We would be picking at 15 or higher in next year's draft. Do you honestly think 3 (maybe 4) franchise signal callers are going to make it that far? Let's look at teams who could be needing a qb next year.

1. Rams- new regimes usually mean new qbs. Fisher did not draft Bradford. If Bradford has another poor year due to performance or injury, Fisher could look elsewhere

2. Cleveland - if they don't draft RG3

3. Jacksonville - whether or not you can blame Gabbert for the poor year, if he doesn't improve next year the Jags will be looking for another option

4. Tamba Bay - if Freeman has another problematic year in his 4th year, don't be suprised

5. Washington - unless RG3, Manning

6. Miami - Matt Moore could develop into a franchise qb. Maybe Manning or RG3

7. Buffalo - Fitz is 29. Struggled down the stretch. Even with his contract, they could develop one under him

8. Arizona - Kolb is having trouble staying on the field. He's not doing that great either

9. NY Jets - With a teammate bashing Sanchez this offseason, the Ryan talk about taking Manning in a draft over Sanchez, and a poor season by Sanchez, it's likely

10. Denver - As long as Tebow wins, his stats won't matter with the revenue he generates and his positive image. But.....how long before the Tebow train runs out of fuel?

If any of these teams are drafting high next year, it's most likely due to their quarterbacks. You can most likely eliminate 3 of these teams because of Flynn/Manning/RG3 pickups. That still leaves 7 teams.

Finally, let's examine the cost of the second overall pick. I'm throwing out the trade value chart because no one actually follows that. There are going to be teams bidding for the pick.

Browns - Cleveland has the best chance to win the bid. 2 first round picks. And the Rams would be able to get Kalil or Blackmon.

Redskins - at pick 6, they can package picks from this year and next year

Miami - at pick 9, same options as the Redskins

Chiefs- at pick 11/12, same options as before. If they are forced to franchise Bowe/Carr, they could use the one they franchise as trade bait with draft picks.

Honestly, I don't see the Chiefs pulling the trigger. Pioli seems to have too much faith in Cassel, and he loves his extra draft picks.

But....if he does, he would realistically (at the minimum) trade a couple of 1st rounders and a couple of thirds if the other teams are pushing to trade up. He would resign Bowe and Carr long term, sign Nicks long term, draft a RT in the second round (Zebrie Sanders?), and draft a RB in later rounds. We would have a good to great young o-line with a solid ground attack and good to great WR (maybe Baldwin makes a big jump with the offseason). That puts RG3 in a prime position for success, leaning his chance of success toward the 90% range.

80261_dolphins_daboll_football_medium

via cdn2.sbnation.com

If this happens, expect Daboll to do this on draft day!

I'll finish by saying that this team has a window to win a Super Bowl with some of the current studs (DJ, Hali). Rookie QBs rarely come in and dominate in their first year (unless you're a super freak...I'm talking about you Cam Newton). The longer we wait to draft/pickup a franchise qb, the less of a window we have.

Elite/good qbs get to and win the Super Bowl. Average qbs with a good defense and good running game are the exception.

We should not by any means just go for a couple of playoff wins. True competitors want the main prize.If you have ever participated in a sport, playing it safe won't get you anywhere. You have to risk something at some point. Robert Griffin is a risk. But, he is a good risk. If we surround him(or some other young stud) with a good offense, he'll flourish.

Once you agree upon the price you and your family must pay for success, it enables you to ignore the minor hurts, the opponent's pressure, and the temporary failures.

Vince Lombardi

We are close. Hopefully, Pioli will prove that he is genius that he was thought to be when we first hired him. Go Chiefs.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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