The Truth about the Cap

So I was thinking today after a lot of talk about different cap numbers that are being floated around. I figured I'd try to think out loud and try to take a look at where the Chiefs are with the cap and what it really means in terms of spending.

First lets look at the numbers we heard straight from the GM on the Border Patrol this morning.

According to Pioli the $62 million that is being talked about lately, will be reduced by $25 million after current contract escalators and performance incentives are applied.

Now we're at $38 million under.

We just signed Stanford Routt to a 3 year/$19 million deal. Apparently $11 million of that will be applied to the 2012 cap.

As was pointed out in the comments, Routt looks like he is a $3.33 million cap hit this year

Now we're at $35 million under.

I'd like to think Dwayne Bowe will be resigned. What sort of contract? Larry Fitzgerald is on a 8 year/$120 million deal. Bowe isn't Fitzgerald. Anquan Boldin is on a 4 year/$28 million deal. Bowe is younger and more dynamic than Boldin was when he signed his deal. What do you say we split the difference and say Bowe signs a 6 year/$66 million deal, and since they've done it with almost every major deal, let's assume salary plus accrued signing bonus will count $15 million in the first year (about 33% above the yearly average of the deal)

Now we're at $20 million under.

Hey Kyle Orton fans, let's get him locked up. Matt Hasselbeck is currently on a 3 year/$20 million contract. This is an apt contract comparison to me. Certainly he's not going to fetch 6 years/$59 million like Ryan Fitzpatrick did. I'm comfortable putting Orton in the $6-7 million range, and just because this is all hypothetical, I'm giving him the cap-friendlier $6 million.

Now we're at $14 million under. Wait, wait, wait. Kyle Orton is not resigning in KC unless Matt Cassel is flat out cut or traded. Cassel will make $5.25 million this and there are only $600,000 in bonuses left on his deal, so really to cut Cassel and sign Orton financially is a wash. Either way, the Chiefs don't spend more then $5.5-7 million on a vet QB. Let's put that $6 million back.

Now we're at $20 million under.

I don't know what the Chiefs rookie salary pool will be, but I'm guessing between $2-3 million.

Now we're at $18 million under.

What do we NEED to upgrade to be a Super Bowl contender this year:

OT, OG, NT, #2 RB.

What depth positions NEED to be filled through the draft or Free Agency

#2 TE, FB, #4-5 WR, Back up safeties, Back up DE's (maybe resign Gillberry?),

So now we have $18 million to send on many positions.

Want to re-sign Carr ($10 million?), Leron McLain ($2 million) ? Want to sign Carl Nicks($6 million?), BenJarvis Green-Ellis ($4 million), Paul Soliai ($7 million?)? Decisions will have to be made, but there isn't going to be a crazy free agency splash. There will be maybe 1 larger signing and a few $1-2 million/year deals. Turns out we can afford a few of these guys. I'd say there is a enough cushion here to sign 2-3 mid-high end free agents and a few $1-2 million guys.

The point is, let's look at what is actually available to spend and what we should be REALISTICALLY expecting.

(People might take issue with some of my assumed numbers. I admit they are a guess. Dwayne Bowe, for example could be anywhere between a $10-15 million cap hit this year so I am giving and taking a few million bills.)