The Case Against Trent Richardson On The Kansas City Chiefs
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 17, 2012 7:00 AM CST
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PrintFrom the FanPosts. Rebuttal post to Tomahawk 29's Trent Richardson post. -Joel
Tomahawk29 wrote a fanpost explaining the reasons why we should draft Richardson. As you might have guessed, I don't agree. Not only that, but if Pioli does draft Richardson in the first, I will have lost all the respect I had for him as a capable GM. There is simply no reason to draft a running back in the first round unless you are guaranteed the next Jim Brown or Barry Sanders.
Our disagreement on this issue revolves around a common misunderstanding of how the football world works. Simply put, anyone who wants to draft Richardson in the first must assume that we will be a very run heavy team, and run heavy teams are doomed to fail in today's NFL.
A lot of people think Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL today. The people who argue for Trent Richardson point to the fact that he looks like Adrian Peterson to show how great of an addition he would be to the Chiefs. And it's mostly true. Peterson is #11 among running backs in Advanced NFL Stats' expected points added per play metric. Every time the Vikings run the ball with Peterson, they can expect to gain .07 points out of it. That's pretty good.
Well, it's good for a running back. For a quarterback, he would not be good at all. Kyle Orton had .04 EPA/P on the season and the Broncos chose to bench him in favor of a guy who was third string just a couple weeks earlier. Dan Orlovsky, the guy who is most famous for running out the back of his own endzone, had .08 EPA/P, beating Peterson. That's right, if the Colts had Adrian Peterson, they would be better off letting Orlovsky pass it than they would be letting Peterson run it.
This guy is more useful than "the best running back in the NFL".
That's just an outlier, right? You can't seriously be saying that the Ravens gain more by letting Joe Flacco (which my spell checker is telling me to change to "flaccid") pass than they would by letting Ray Rice run? Sorry, but that is also the case. The Ravens got .11 EPA/P out of Flaccid Flacco, but only .06 out of Rice.
These stats for running backs are somewhat inflated, because they count both rushes and receptions, and so running backs who get more receptions get a boost in stats. Jamaal Charles (who is really the best running back in the NFL) had .17 EPA/P in 2010, which has only been matched in the last three years by backs that had receptions as at least 25% of their touches, and even then getting above .15 is unusual (Charles had less than 20% of his touches as receptions).
The biggest problem for us is that our QB play has not been very good. Peterson does beat the QBs currently on our roster, Cassel (.01EPA/P) and Palko (-.14EPA/P), so maybe a good running back might help. There are a couple problems with this line of thought.
First of all, Orton may have a bad season overall, but he was excellent when he played for us. Advanced NFL Stats does split the stats to see how he performed with us versus the Broncos, so I'll have to use net yards per attempt (which is like yards per attempt, but counts sacks). And in that category, there was a clear improvement from his days with the Broncos to us. In the three games he played with us, he had 7.9 NY/A, which is outstanding. The only QBs who could beat that last year were Rodgers (8.2) and Brady (7.9). Not even Brees could do as well over the season (7.8) as Orton did with us.
Even though that's a small sample size, and he probably couldn't consistently put up those numbers if he played for us an entire season, it is still enough to convince me that he could outperform Orlovsky, who is more effective than Peterson, the player Richardson may turn out to be if he's as good as we think. In other words, we would be better off signing Orton and giving him an increased load rather than drafting Richardson and turning ourselves into a run-first team.
Secondly, and some what related, is that we should not be building a run first team. Both Super Bowl teams this year were below average running teams by both yards and yards per attempt, with the Giants ranking last in both. The year before that, the Packers were below average in both categories, while the Steelers were only above average in total rushing yards. The year before that the Saints were one of the best running teams, but were even better at passing. The Colts, who could have gone undefeated, were near the bottom in both categories.
Simply put, a strong running game by itself will get you nowhere. You need to concentrate on building the best passing game possible, using the run just to keep the defense honest. The Packers ran the ball 395 times this year, and the Giants ran it 411, so we should aim for around 400 rushing attempts if we want to be a pass-first team. Charles got 230 in 2010, which would leave about 170 for Richardson if he got all the rest of the carries. And would it really be worth a first round pick for Richardson to be getting those 170 carries rather than a combination of Battle and Mccluster? McCluster had around .05 EPA/P last year and 90 carries, while Battle was at -.09 EPA/P, so if McCluster got 90 runs and Battle got 80, we would have a net of about -1 points. If Richardson does as well as Peterson (.07EPA/P) and takes those same carries, we would have a net of about 12 points. So our first round pick would gain us 13 points over the course of a season, or less than one point per game.
But what if we end up keeping Cassel with his .01 EPA/P and had a team like 2010? So instead of passing it about 550 times and running it about 450 times, we pass it about 450 times and run it about 550 times, giving those extra running attempts to Richardson? Even in that scenario, our first round pick is only worth 6 additional points over the season.
So adding Richardson, even assuming that he is as good as Peterson immediately, doesn't really do much to improve our team. Assuming that Orton would have a .1EPA/P playing with us over a season (which is pretty conservative considering the stats above), we would gain about 43 additional points over the season by simply replacing Cassel with Orton. T.J. Yates was at .1EPA/P, so if we could find a QB even half as good as him in the first round, it would be a much better investment than if we had spent the pick on Richardson.
So this is nothing against Richardson, it's just that the running back position isn't that important. You can plug pretty much anyone back there and not get hurt much. And even gaining Adrian Peterson just isn't worth a first round pick. We are far better off reaching for a position of higher value than taking Richardson, even if he is as good as Peterson.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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I agree with what you are saying however
It is unfair to compare yards per play between a QB and a RB. RB gets the ball behind the line , while the QB throws the ball downfield. So of course any even remotely decent QB is going to out gain a RB no matter how good he is. Having said all that, you are on the money about running the ball. Fans on here need to realize that this isn’t 1986 anymore. This team has to get better at passing the ball to have any shot at a championship. Unfortionatley , we don’t have a capable QB on our roster to do that
In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti
by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Feb 16, 2012 5:55 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
It is fair to compare because we want to know what we're getting out of a given play.
If we expect to gain .1 expected points by throwing it and .05 for running it, why in the world would we want to run it more than we pass it?
But, yeah, it’s possible to win the Super Bowl without a good QB, but it’s so much tougher. You need a good passing game in order to win Super Bowls.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 6:10 PM CST up reply actions
you run to get first downs and control the game
of course scoring is still an essential part of that strategy and we need to do everything we can to improve in that regard, but it’s not hard to imagine richardson providing an instant boost to our red zone offense.
Rec'd and well said, I was a little thrown off by that stat as well.
And we HAVE to get better as a passing team. Running the ball? We’re already decent at that with a half-deceased OL and no Charles at tailback….imagine how much better that’ll get with a new lineman or two and JC’s return.
Vermin Supreme in 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rji74B453JY
by go_saleaumua on Feb 17, 2012 7:30 AM CST up reply actions
What if Jamaal doesn't return to form?
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 3:11 PM CST up reply actions
i agree
Lets not try to get fancy with a first rd rb. Lets get some beef so we can run with whoever. Grab a guy like pead later or get someone solid in fa. With mcclain (if kept) battle, dex, jc and the newbie we can do some damage.
Kill two birds with one stone and improve the pass protection. Im voting for beef.
by chief red foreman on Feb 16, 2012 6:24 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Wustl just said running doesn't matter
doesn’t even matter if the RB is god, rushing attacks do not win Super Bowls
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 7:17 PM CST up reply actions
then
“Lets just stop running all together and trade jc for a fg unit that can actually block”
by chief red foreman on Feb 16, 2012 9:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I like it ... definitely has potential :-)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
oh yeah
Extend matty c for life and were golden. Big plans ups, big plans. :)
by chief red foreman on Feb 16, 2012 9:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
nothing like a good show of loyalty, eh?
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
lol no kidding
Thinking about it now, would have been in the playoffs if we made that trade last season. Kinda depressed now :(
by chief red foreman on Feb 16, 2012 9:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I thought it worked
I want a Machine gun Batallion but a fg unit works
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 9:05 PM CST up reply actions
Everyone wants it both ways.
You generally have to get either a run blocking lineman or pass blocking lineman. Somehow everyone thinks that we’ll get an o-line with players who excel at both and that’s not the case.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
well
Whatever we get at rt its going to be an upgrade over b rich. And that even includes the cookie monster.
by chief red foreman on Feb 16, 2012 8:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
i feel like
That has the potential to be 12 men on the field, but im leaning towards the refs feeling like its necessary.
Youre right.
We should be okay.
by chief red foreman on Feb 16, 2012 9:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Dude
I am all for getting the cookie monster on the Oline..Cookie monster for team captian!
**Heres to 5 err 4 more years of JC!!!!**
you want this guy on our team?!?!
by Rupert Daniels on Feb 17, 2012 3:41 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
RB's dont last that long
1970-2006 174 1st rd rb;s only 58 (33%)were starters 5 or more years vs 55% average for the other 21 posiitons. Christian Okoye? Gone after 6 seasons, Larry Johnson as good as gone after 5. Yet Priest Holmes, Jamaal Charles, Terrell Davis have shown you can find high quality rb’s all over the draft and udfa.
Pass on Richardson, not too even mention his character (3 children out of wedlock, how do we suippose he supported them while being an “amateur athlete”?).
Carpe Diem
children out of wedlock is hardly a knock against someone's character
and your implication that he did something questionable to support them is ignorant and racist.
Racist? Richardson's skin color hasn't been mentioned...you are speculating
And yes, someone fathering three children out of wedlock before he turns 22 is a knock on his character. If he does the responsible thing and provides love, instruction, and support to his three children, that knock will be overcome.
Though I suspect that will be difficult if he is an NFL player in a city thousands of miles away from his kids.
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
by PVChiefsfan on Feb 17, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Awwwwww Shucky Ducky...
And yes, someone fathering three children out of wedlock before he turns 22 is a knock on his character.
nah it means that he prefers bareback and hasn’t mastered pulling out, and is pro-life…
First of all, you throwin' too many big words at me, and because I don't understand them, I'm gonna take 'em as disrespect...
Charter Member of Chief Fans for Neck Beards...Viva La Orton
But Tom Brady having children out of wedlock
in fact, while engaged to another woman is A O K….RIGHT……But he is having white kids….Which makes it all better
by bonesjackson on Feb 17, 2012 1:58 PM CST up reply actions
forshizzle?
First of all, you throwin' too many big words at me, and because I don't understand them, I'm gonna take 'em as disrespect...
Charter Member of Chief Fans for Neck Beards...Viva La Orton
My Nizzle
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, it'll be real difficult for him to send a couple hundred grand each year to his kids.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
good article and it's good to see people who get the connection between education and success
He seems like a real good guy and the fact that he’s taking care of his daughters is a good sign. I hope he is successful in whatever team he goes to (I hope it isn’t an AFC West team though).
by aFan4Life on Feb 17, 2012 9:00 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
pioli wont draft richardson
based on this article, pioli wont touch richardson because he doent have a daddy. pioli loves to draft men who have a mom and dad.
by michaelaglover on Feb 17, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
I don't understand the relevance of comparing the run game to the pass game at this time...
Pioli and company aren’t trading up for a quarterback. It’s not like we have a choice between a quarterback and running back. The real battle is running back vs. offensive line. As Walterfootball quoted:
For Chief fans who want a tackle or something else over Richardson, let me remind you of Arizona’s 2007 NFL Draft. The Cardinals had a very slight need at running back (as much as Kansas City needs one), and Adrian Peterson was on the board at No. 5. They instead opted to take an inferior talent who filled a much bigger need. Five years later, I’m sure Arizona would rather have Peterson over Levi Brown.
Richardson is the best running back prospect since Peterson. Taking him here is the right move because you don’t choose a Levi Brown over an Adrian Peterson.
https://twitter.com/#!/super8kc
No, you don't.
You pick the best prospect available.
So you pick David DeCastro.
by NigerianNightmare on Feb 16, 2012 6:52 PM CST up reply actions
Thats the difference between Levi Brown and Decastro
Decastro is “IT” when it comes to can’t miss. Thats what I like about Decastro and not so much about everyone else, plus it’s a need.
I miss Will Shields and Wille Roaf
LOL wut?
…I assume you’re implicitly defending Lilja’s play at the position (which was not as good as his 2010 play at RG, or his 2005-2008 play at LG for Indy, but was still decent).
At the end of the day, if we go to a more “power” or man-blocking scheme, which I think we will given Bicknell’s recent coaching history AND Daboll’s schematic history, Lilja fits in like a dial telephone at the Verizon store.
Vermin Supreme in 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rji74B453JY
by go_saleaumua on Feb 17, 2012 7:41 AM CST up reply actions
"Best RB prospect since....."
Heard that before. Reggie Bush was a hot prospect. Ricky Williams was a hot prospect. Not all Hot prospects end up so hot. (If not injured and subjected to shortened career.) I’d rather see O-Line made better and go for a 2nd to 4th Round pick that will be made better with more consistant holes to run through. A lesser back will look much better when he converts on 3rd and short; Or, when he creates the 3rd and short with consistant gaines on 11st and second.
"You talkin' to me? You TALKIN' to me ?" - Travis Bickle
Teams will learn to protect better against the pass as time goes on.
There’s an ebb and flow in the league. A balanced team is best.
exactly
so tired of everyone talking about how it’s a passing league now and running is out of style. just because other teams have found success with quarterbacks like manning and brady doesn’t mean that’s the only way to win a championship. of course it helps having an elite QB, and what team wouldn’t want that, but that’s not a possibility for the chiefs right now.
No, I think that's not quite what folks are saying.
I haven’t noticed anyone on the “Not Richardson” side (like myself) suggesting that “running is out of style.” When you say that, I assume you mean COMPLETELY—that teams just don’t run the ball.
Also, I agree with you that “because other teams have found success with quarterbacks like manning and brady doesn’t mean that’s the only way to win a championship”—there has to be balance in all things, especially in NFL offenses. It would be wise to note that even Indy and NE run the football…hence why Addai is still a viable fantasy back (or was till 2011), and why “The Law Firm” will have suitors in free agency: He was used for running the ball, scoring goalline touchdowns, etc.
My point, and a lot of other folks’ point, is this: If we can get a superior talent at a true position of need (DeCastro at guard) that helps us on both sides of the ball, we ought to do that. If our running game was solid with a half-worn offensive line in 2011 and dominant with a good (not great) line in 2010, why not rebuild the piece that’s worn instead of the piece that’s not? It will boost both the running AND passing games, both of which need to be good to win in the NFL in this day and age. Finally (and Green-Ellis shows this), good running backs don’t need to be first round picks to be successful or even dominant. In fact, Charles was a third round pick in 2008….Priest Holmes was undrafted….
Vermin Supreme in 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rji74B453JY
by go_saleaumua on Feb 17, 2012 7:50 AM CST up reply actions
can't disagree with any of that
our o-line is a priority and improving it would be a huge boost to our offensive production. my comment was directed more at the people who think we need to emulate the elite passing teams to be a playoff contender – the 49ers threw that theory out the window this year.
One out of twelve playoff teams busts the theory? I think not.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Note…when I say “helps us on both sides of the ball,” I meant both phases of offense.
Carry on….
re-sign: to renew a contract for a period of time
resign: to terminate a contract or agreement, "to quit"
by go_saleaumua on Feb 17, 2012 7:58 AM CST up reply actions
Aaannnnd..
by helping both phases of offense (passing game and running game) it tends to help move the chains, improve odds of scoring and helps keep the defense fresh. FINALLY finish the Oline (young stud FA’s or #1 and #2 draft picks) and lets be amazed at how those 2 positions will improve both sides of the ball.
Yes you can have a balanced attack with a mediocre O-Line.
You can be mediocre in Passing and Running. Since loss players like Roaf and Shields and Weigmenn in his prime, we have failed at having players to step in and play to same high level. QBs can’t excel when sitting on their butts. RBs can’t find holes to run through consistantly. WRs can’t get deep.
Keys to success:
1) Super Bowl caliber QB.
2) Super Bowl Caliber O-Line.
3) Super Bowl Caliber Defense to stop opponents Super Bowl caliber QB.
"You talkin' to me? You TALKIN' to me ?" - Travis Bickle
The pick would be fun
but thats about all, and then reality hits.
I miss Will Shields and Wille Roaf
I'm completely onboard with
OL in the first this year…..we have great skill position players and we can get a solid RB in round 3. We need to stop getting our ass kicked in the trenches, and that will help us a lot in the pass and run games.
Not sexy in the first, but bring on the beef
Formerly Hail2DaChiefs
Didn't even have to go beyond the break
Our disagreement on this issue revolves around a common misunderstanding of how the football world works. Simply put, anyone who wants to draft Richardson in the first must assume that we will be a very run heavy team, and run heavy teams are doomed to fail in today’s NFL.
We have Matt Cassel at QB, so I guess Scott Pioli is a Dumbass
Again
So this is nothing against Richardson, it’s just that the running back position isn’t that important. You can plug pretty much anyone back there and not get hurt much.
on any team that has an elite QB (or even average) The Chiefs need a Back to get 4-5 yards per Rush to stay in front of the 1st down sticks.
I agree with your Advanced stats, but this is a Cassel led team. Throw out conventional thought cause Cassel is not going to get 4000 yards plus passing
How do you know this will be a Cassel led team?
They have already said they’re looking for competition at the position, which is pretty damning.
The only way they stick with Cassel is if they believe he is a good QB, in which case we should still pass more than we run. Why would they stick with a QB they don’t think is any good and try to work around him?
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:32 PM CST up reply actions
Got me?
All I know is that we have to cover up the shortages in our passing game with our rushing attack.
If we sign a QB better than Cassel, I will adjust my thought train. More Time in the pocket is not going to help Cassel, better rushers will.
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 7:35 PM CST up reply actions
But you're wanting us to make a move to cover up a mistake we haven't made yet.
It’s like wearing steel toed boots to prepare for shooting yourself in the foot. Just don’t shoot yourself in the foot!
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:38 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Who can we get this offseason who won't need a solid ground game around them?
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
Manning, Orton, or even start Stanzi.
Orton, as I showed, performed at a very high level in our system even without Charles.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:43 PM CST up reply actions
I can give you Manning, although that's not very realistic.
Orton and Stanzi will both need ground games to succeed.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:45 PM CST up reply actions
Like the awesome ground game we had this year when Orton played for us?
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:50 PM CST up reply actions
How exactly did Orton succeed when he played for us?
That offense still sucked ass.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
So you were impressed with Orton last year?
He played like shit. We averaged 13 points/game with him.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:51 PM CST up reply actions
if you couldn't see that Orton was better ... with your own eyes ... then nothing can ever be said to convince you otherwise
there are stats in the post … are yours the only stats that count or matter? come on …
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I never said he wasn't better than Cassel.
But he still played like shit and needs a ground game around him.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 8:10 PM CST up reply actions
he didn't play like shit, but he does need a better ground game
that, however, doesn’t require a wasted 1st round pick in Trent Richardson … it does, however, require a major investment in the OLIne, as in the best we can get for the OLine
you know, like DeCastro … for starters :-)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
UPS, I think you need to put a line in your Signature
along the lines of
you know, like DeCastro … for starters :-)
That way you won’t have to say it all day. I mean, man, you hands must be tired – that or well practiced at typing it :) Do you have your requisite 10,000 hours yet?
by Eastcoastransplant on Feb 17, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
Bull Crap
the QB stats are derived from the players around them.
QB’s don’t do shit all by themselves.
Ask Tom Bradys’ wife, he can’t throw and catch them too
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 7:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Manning can't throw past 25 yards right now,
Orton is not enough of an upgrade over Cassel to matter,
and Stanzi is a complete unknown.
And just for arguments sake, that STILL leaves us with an 11th overall pick that didn’t go towards QB. Why not take another RB? The QB situation is still pretty jacked up in all three of those scenarios.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
by Tomahawk29 on Feb 16, 2012 7:50 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
How is 13 pts a game a high level>?
Especially against three teams that collectivley gave up an average of 25 pts per game?
Carpe Diem
Matt Cassel generated 6.4 yards per attempt in 2011
6.9 yards per attempt in 2010
Jamaal Charles in 2010
generated 1459 yards on 230 rushing attempts and 468 on 59 Targeted passes.
for 6.6678 yards per rush/receiving target
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 7:44 PM CST up reply actions
Charles is an outlier.
I have argued before that he is the only running back in the NFL who matters. He was the biggest reason why Cassel regressed between 2010 and 2011.
However, if Richardson is as good as Charles, I will admit that he is worth a first round pick. But I’d be willing to bet a lot of money that he isn’t.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:52 PM CST up reply actions
I like outliers
if that is the only way to get wins for the Chiefs.
I guess the second point is why I want another RB similar to Charles.
Ground and pound does not generate 6+ yards per attempt and beating your RB’s against solid D-lines is rather stupid
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 7:54 PM CST up reply actions
Except Richardson will probably not be like Charles.
Only 10 times in NFL history has a player had more than 5.8 yards per carry (with at least 150 attempts), and Charles has done it twice. Barry Sanders and OJ Simpson only did it once. Jim Brown did it three times.
This is actually another reason why I’m against Richardson, and why I feel Thomas Jones was a huge mistake. Charles is a special player, and we should be giving as many carries to him as we can (yes, even if it means throwing fewer passes). If Richardson is as good as Charles, it would be wise to draft him. But that is very unlikely.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:04 PM CST up reply actions
So you can only justify taking a RB in round 1 if he puts up Jim Brown numbers?
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
Pretty much.
Otherwise, the benefit of passing overwhelms the benefit of running.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:07 PM CST up reply actions
Pretty well.
As I mentioned in the post, Orton the Chief was far superior to Orton the Bronco. Clearly we’re doing something right.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:11 PM CST up reply actions
Cmon Man
Dexter had more affect on the Chiefs 2011 season than Baldwin did.
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:12 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, you're right.
But only because of his injury. but the point still remains that a good QB can be successful here.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:19 PM CST up reply actions
So what you're really trying to say.....
is that we should just trade up and draft RG3. Finally, something we can agree on.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 8:13 PM CST up reply actions
LaMichael James averaged more than 6+ yards rushing
I would have to look up his receiving numbers.
Special is generated by accident or plan, I don’t care
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:09 PM CST up reply actions
No
that is one thing Haley got right. As good as JC is, he cant physically handle more touches than he has been getting. Almost every game I can remember in the 2 years (only) I have seen him on the sidelines at some point in the game dinged up. I know this because I am holding my breath hoping it isnt something serious.
If ever there was a need to spread the load, it’s with JC. I still believe in going Oline however we have to, to replace Lilja and Richardson and finally have a dominant Oline that will make good..great and great…well you know, greater.
Ok so explain this.....
Ravens went 12-4 this year. In those 4 losses, Flacco averaged 39 attempts a game and Ray Rice averaged 9 carries a game. So how exactly is Flacco more important to the Ravens than Rice? And please don’t give me this EPA/P bullshit.
In those 4 games they had a turnover ratio of 10/2, -8 total, -2 per game.
And just because something proves your beliefs wrong doesn’t make it bullshit. Why should I believe your claim that EPA/P is bullshit when you probably don’t even understand what EPA/P is?
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
And who was responsible for all of those turnovers?
I’ll give you a hint. It’s the guy who the team “gains more” from.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:37 PM CST up reply actions
By my count, in those games it was 6 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles.
However, EPA/P takes those turnovers into account, so your turnover argument doesn’t really hold water.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:55 PM CST up reply actions
You're right. Turnovers don't influence wins or losses.
Let’s just use silly metrics instead of logic.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:57 PM CST up reply actions
EPA/P takes turnovers into account.
So every time a QB throws a pick their EPA/P goes down.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
I understand this, but I don't need BS metrics to determine value.
Flacco passing like crazy and Rice getting limited touches is why the Ravens lost those games. My eyes told the story. But please, keep using your EPA/P to devalue runing backs.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 8:08 PM CST up reply actions
A RT or a LG is not that important to a team either then..
Trent Richardson is the top 3 prospects in the draft this year.. Make no mistake, without a qb we will always be a running team. Theres no better way we can help our pass(besides getting a qb thats worth a damn) than a dominate run game. So the question becomes at 11/12 who makes this running offense more potent? Some say DeCastro,and some say T.Rich. On everybodys board(outside of AP) its T.Rich>DeCastro period. If we could draft T.Rich & get Grubbs in FA we would be NASTY,even without a qb to speak of…
GIVE JAMAAL THE DAMN BALL!!!!!
by chief913-816 on Feb 16, 2012 7:38 PM CST via mobile reply actions
EPA/P
My biggest argument against this silly metric is that the RB position actually helps the QB out. A lot.
So to say, “look, this QB scores more points per play, so he’s more valuable than a RB” is honestly kind of fucked up. Does the QB get credit for a dump pass to a RB that jukes 2 defenders, and runs 70 yards for a TD? Does the RB get credit when they chip block a pass rusher and the QB throws a 50 yard bomb? What about play action? How does that equate into this EPAP nonsense?
Let’s be honest. Good RB play can and often does make a QBs job easier. Especially if your QB isn’t Brady, Brees or Rodgers. And guess what? We don’t have a Brady, Brees or Rodgers. So until we DO have a Brady, Brees or Rodgers, we’re going to have to run the ball extremely well in order to even sniff the playoffs (as evidenced by 2010).
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
And you will never, ever in a million years convince me that replacing Orton with Cassel is a better plan than drafting Richardson.
Our QB situation will suck with either of those guys.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Tom, nice to see that you're so open to Orton :-)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I'm as open to Orton as I am to Cassel.
And I’ve resigned to the possibility of Cassel still being here next year, so yeah, I’d say that’s a pretty warm welcome for Orton to crash in KC.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
awesome! so let's get on with the damned OLine, because regardless of QB or RB or WR, if we DON'T vastly improve the OLine with the best we can get, those skill players are toast
why do you think I’m stuck on DeCastro? trust me, it isn’t his great looks!
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
You ALWAYS get stuck on SOMEbody :)
Lots o’ luv in those lips.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
oh yeah ... shivering with antici ... PATION!
you may have mail :-)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Don't see it yet....
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
hmmmm
shoot me one … might have wrong addy for ya from site
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Done
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
and back
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
And the QB position helps out the RB position a lot.
The top two running backs in terms of EPA/P both played for the Saints. In 2010, New England had the top RB in this metric.
This is because the reasoning you laid out goes in reverse. RB’s get credit for draws, and are helped a lot if the defense has to defend the pass.
If I can never convince you of the truth, no matter how overwhelming the evidence, why should anybody care about your opinion?
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
How does this help your argument?
Basically what you’re saying is that if we had Drew Brees, we wouldn’t need to draft Trent Richardson. Correct.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:50 PM CST up reply actions
I'm saying it goes both ways.
They were simply examples of the fact that QB’s can make RB’s look good. Unless Stanzi turns out to be as good as some are saying, we won’t have a QB of Brees’ quality anytime soon.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:54 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly. So we need a solid ground game. And JC needs insurance.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 7:55 PM CST up reply actions
insurance? what, Obamacare? the Chiefs take good care of him when he gets hurt ... best doctors, best surgeons, all that stuff
and dental, too!
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
agreed Fetish
Since as far as I know this is Cassel’s season to shine with even more top talent all around him.
We could draft the local High School QB next year and he would be awesome cause we will have everything in place for her to succeed
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:01 PM CST up reply actions
except that Orton is much better and would outshine Cassel by a million miles
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Or we could risk another full season with JC's backups.
That worked wonders last year.
by ChiefsFetish on Feb 16, 2012 8:04 PM CST up reply actions
Woah, you just proved my point.
Both Sproles and Thomas had either more or almost the same receiving yards as rushing yards. Would Brees be #2 on the EPAP for QBs if it weren’t for those 2? Maybe. Maybe not.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
The point is that they mainly helped by catching passes, not running.
Most people want Richardson for what he can do as a runner.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 7:58 PM CST up reply actions
we already have Moeaki and Maneri
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
dammit we are having a serious discussion Ups :)
according to metrics only a QB is worthy of consideration at all.
Trade everything and get Luck or RGIII
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:04 PM CST up reply actions
you've gone mad, haven't you? :-)
it was only a matter of time …
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
ahhhhhhhh ok, just as long as you don't REALLY believe this "must have Richardson" nonsense :-)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Or, according to metrics - a RB doesn't make sense in the 1st round
Aaaaahhh, succumbing to absolutes. The AP way.
Only a QB ever. Every pick. That’s got to be it. That has to be exactly what wustl is saying. Never even try to get any other position.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
sure until we have a franchise QB
machine gun the position
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 17, 2012 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
Right.
They caught passes and helped boost Brees’ EPAP. Do they get points when they execute a play action or block a pass rusher?
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
They do not.
But I doubt those are the reasons people want to draft him. Let’s ask the guy who wrote a front page post on all the reasons we should draft Richardson:
It’s not just his raw strength though. His weight room work translates to results on the field. He can make crazy 90 degree cuts and burst up the field, keeps a low center of gravity, and has a vicious stiff arm. The first tackler isn’t likely to stop him. He breaks a lot of tackles. He falls forward, and can carry a pile of guys with him. He runs HARD. Admittedly, I only watched part of one Bama game this year, and it was the National Championship game, so for the most part I’ve only heard of Trent. So yesterday, I started looking up articles and videos about him (thus the reason for this post today). It’s hard to find anything negative about the guy. All I can really say, is that if you haven’t seen him run, watch these:
Just imagine it: Jamaal comes in for a series, averaging about 5-6 yards per carry. The defense is forced to chase a speedy, shifty back laterally. A lot. The next series, he gets a breather, and in comes Richardson. Richardson is a strong, abusive back. He would absolutely pound the snot out of teams, and gain positive yards while doing it. Plus he’s quick. By the fourth quarter, defenses would be exhausted and beaten up after having to deal with these two all game. And the backs would be fresh.
One other quick tidbit, which I was forced to look into after one of our own APers tried to make the point that bigger biceps means more fumbling. Guess how many fumbles Richardson has lost in his career? One. In 586 carries. And that lost fumble was 522 carries ago. He’s just not known as a fumbler. And part of the reason why is apparent in his technique. Watching the last clip from above, you see he’s damn good with his ball handling fundamentals
These three things are nothing huge. Every NFL RB needs to be able to do these. But these combined with his fumble history really just kills the “bigger biceps = fumbles” argument. If nothing else, it looks like Trent holds the ball like a vise grip. His strength seems to be a huge asset in every aspect of his game.
Funny how there was no mention of play action or pass blocking. They certainly weren’t one of three things an NFL RB needs to be able to do.
In other words, if you want to draft a running back to be a runner, wait until later rounds or you won’t get very good value. If he can help the passing game significantly, then a first rounder might be worth it. But if you want somebody who can block, why don’t we just draft a lineman?
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:18 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't mention play action and pass blocking
Because I wasn’t trying to use some silly metric to prove how QBs are way more valuable than RBs, and that thus even shitty QBs are better than elite RBs.
My post today was focused on WHAT IF WE STILL HAVE A SHITTY QB? Not that a good QB is more valuable than a RB. Not that a RB can help the QB. My post today was IN SPITE OF the QB. If we’re resigned to a shitty QB, then that means we have to run the ball well to attempt to make up for a bad pass game.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Like I mentioned above.
Why would you make a move based on a mistake you haven’t made yet? It’s like buying steel toed boots to prepare for shooting yourself in the foot. Just don’t shoot yourself in the foot!
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:28 PM CST up reply actions
Dammit
you are arguing against something that has not happened yet either :)
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:30 PM CST up reply actions
What move are you talking about?
Not replacing QB?
So what if I’m speculating against what MIGHT happen? Isn’t that about all we can do right now? If by the time the Chiefs pick and Cassel is still the best QB on the team (or Orton), then hell yeah, we’re going to have to get some boots, cause we’re about to shoot our foot.
I don’t follow what your point is here.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
The move is keeping Cassel.
If the guys in charge believe Cassel is bad enough that we need to compensate by drafting a first round running back, then we need to be giving Orton or Stanzi or somebody else a chance.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:37 PM CST up reply actions
But it's ok that he's bad enough that we should draft a first round right tackle, or whatever it is you want?
Pot, meet kettle.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Tom, not even the best QB can be good with a shitty OLine and you know it
same goes for RBs
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I agree, but that doesn't justify intentionally overlooking the BPA that can legitimately help a struggling offense.
we can take Richardson and STILL make considerable upgrades to the OL. Same could be said the other way: Take OL, and still upgrade the RB position.
Just trying to understand why one specific path is right and the other is wrong. I can see it happening both ways. I obviously have my favorite, but see the flexibility to achieve the overall goal in different ways.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
dude! the BPA would BE DeCastro .... really
see, a great OLine can open holes for any RB, but not even a great RB can get thru if there are no holes because the OLine is so bad
IOW, you can drop a nice, shiny bored-out HEMI into a Gremlin, but w/o tires that hold air it still won’t go anywhere
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
OL can get better without DeCastro.
The RBs can get better without Richardson.
That doesn’t mean that taking either would be a bad move.
That said, Richardson is the BPA, so there. :)
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
heh, you're ok, Tom ... misguided but ok :-)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
and you build a TEAM from the lines outward ... we are not even close to being done with the OLine yet
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Are you planning on bringing Croyle back?
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:46 PM CST up reply actions
he's better than Palko, but no ... hadn't reallly thought about it (much)
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I want a right tackle because we don't have a good right tackle.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 9:30 PM CST up reply actions
that would be a nice addition
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
But in the first round?
How can you honestly say that picking a stud RB at 11 is a horrible, big no-no that should never happen, and then turn around and say “but a RT, oh man, that’s what we should pick”?
Ridiculous.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
because we don't need another stud running back
we NEED a stud RT
No, we just need a good RT.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
The same thing can be said about DeCastro and the need at G is no where near the need of a RT
yet DeCastro is the consensus AP pick
KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round
by trentchiefsfan on Feb 18, 2012 1:48 AM CST up reply actions
And plenty of teams intentionally supplement their QB by drafting RBs.
Didn’t SD just draft Mathews not long ago? And the Saints drafted Ingram.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Those teams can afford luxury picks becaaaaaause.....
They already have QBs :)
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
I'm not saying it anymore.
I should just make it my sig.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Beserker is singleminded on his mission
thus
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:47 PM CST up reply actions
The funny thing is that I'm on his side.
I’m just devising a plan B.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
make sure they're sharp
don’t want him to get some horrible disease
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I don't have a favorite person, just a favorite position.
I’m a slut that way.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
horizontal?
just a favorite position
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I thought you were into Verticality
Above Dirt
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:54 PM CST up reply actions
above dirt is all I can ask
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I would imagine Missionary is not the ONE
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:53 PM CST up reply actions
Got an expected points per attempt on that?
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
we need more metrics
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
definitely calls for more research
hands on, in-depth and very detailed and nuanced research … long hours of research so we’re sure about this
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Badda Bing Badda Boom
let’s discuss Tight Ends
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 9:00 PM CST up reply actions
you already said you didn't want to hear about Maneri
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
and Ingram did so well, right?
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Irrelevant to the point made.
The Saints were still trying to supplement Brees with a RB.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
yeah, sure he did
their best runner? Pierre-Thomas … UDFA right?
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
BICEPS?
Tommy, we have TJ and you want BICEPS?
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
And,
who had the #2 top RB in this metric in 2010? I’m dying to know why you left out the #1 and #2 in 2010, yet mentioned the top 2 for this year.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
2010 #2 was Charles.
I do believe Charles is worthy of a 1st round pick. But he is the lone exception in the NFL today.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
And also,
Wasn’t the focus of my post earlier that if we couldn’t replace Cassel, then we should attempt to get another Jamaal?
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Lol, so you WERE saying Richardson is Charles!
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
look what the cat dragged in ... hey Brsrkr!
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I'm about argued out.
Trying to keep it light. And pulling Tom’s tail :)
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
and we know how well HE did :-)
biceps, baby!
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
"Attempt to" and "is" are not the same.
I don’t explicitly think that TR could be another JC. But I know that no FA RBs are, and that out of all the draft RBs, TR has the most potential. If we want to duplicate another JC, we’re going to need to go after a back with a ton of potential.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
And does a RB get credit with the O Line / TE / FB throw an awesome block to open up miles of real estate for him to bust one wide open completley unhindered?
These things work both ways.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
True.
But I’m not using a broken metric to try and supplement my argument. Yes, it’s still a team sport.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
most freaking excellent post, wustl! and duly wreck'd at that :-)
I do love it … proving with the power of words and statistics and logic that there are at least 3 sides to every coin (or something like that!)
well done, well done!
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
oh, and Scott, if you're reading this ... pass on Richardson, re-sign Orton and please draft DeCastro
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
2011 NCAA rushing stats
1 LaMichael James Oregon Jr. RB 12 247 1805 18 7.31 150.42
2 Bobby Rainey Western Ky. Sr. RB 12 369 1695 13 4.59 141.25
3 Montee Ball Wisconsin Jr. RB 14 307 1923 33 6.26 137.36
4 Ronnie Hillman San Diego St. So. RB 13 311 1711 19 5.50 131.62
5 Trent Richardson Alabama Jr. RB 13 283 1679 21 5.93 129.15
6 Bernard Pierce Temple Jr. RB 12 273 1481 27 5.42 123.42
7 Zach Line SMU Jr. RB 10 208 1224 17 5.88 122.40
8 David Wilson Virginia Tech Jr. RB 14 290 1709 9 5.89 122.07
9 Robbie Rouse Fresno St. Jr. RB 13 329 1549 13 4.71 119.15
10 Terrance Ganaway Baylor Sr. RB 13 250 1547 21 6.19 119.00
11 John White Utah Jr. RB 13 316 1519 15 4.81 116.85
12 Henry Josey Missouri So. RB 10 145 1168 9 8.06 116.80
13 Robert Turbin Utah St. Jr. RB 13 249 1517 19 6.09 116.69
14 Branden Oliver Buffalo So. RB 12 306 1395 13 4.56 116.25
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/1001
James complete stats
I could get behind James in the 3rd.
Much better value than Richardson in the 1st.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:21 PM CST up reply actions
We could, but why would we when we could grab him later?
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:24 PM CST up reply actions
Finally, Drafts are not based on anything but perception
we cannot draft the best in the 1st round at certain positions and so forth.
Teams have needs and such nonsense.
If LMJ is the best RB in the draft we should draft him before anyone else realizes it.
Same with DeCastro, or RGIII, or Dominique Hamilton
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:28 PM CST up reply actions
yes, DeCastro!!!
about time you regained your senses!!!
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
According to the wall o' numbers, Josey > LMJ.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Before he destroyed his knee in every way imaginable.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:24 PM CST up reply actions
Oh what could've been :(
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
I feel bad for him.
From what I’ve heard that kind of injury is tough to recover from, and he was having such a great season.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 8:26 PM CST up reply actions
let go of my Josey
he is a sophmore I think
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 8:24 PM CST up reply actions
Would the Cardinals have chose AP instead of Levi Brown in hindsight?
Yes. If we take an OL and he busts out it was the wrong pick anyways. All that matters is that we get a good player. If we take TRich and he turns out to be the next AP, it’s hard to say it was the wrong pick.
Twitter - @bkissel7
hindsight is always 20/20
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
hindsight is always 20/20
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
yep, so pick the player you think would be the best for the team
If TRich grades out higher on your board, draft him. Better than passing on him to take a guy that wasn’t rated as high and he turns out to not work, you’d be kicking yourself for not trusting your grades.
Twitter - @bkissel7
but that's saying that there are NO other factors at work other than BPA
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Position of Need is so subjective
SILB, LG, CB, WR, QB, and NT are all positions that have warm bodies.
We have David Mims at RT
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 9:10 PM CST up reply actions
What other factors? We do need another RB and we're a run-heavy offense
Who’s offensive go-to-guy is coming off knee surgery.
Twitter - @bkissel7
BLASPHEMY!!!
KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round
by trentchiefsfan on Feb 18, 2012 1:51 AM CST up reply actions
In hindsight,
Vikes shoulda picked Revis.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Lol statistics
Just magical mumbo jumbo, can we just watch football?
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
(checking calender)
nope, not yet
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Syracuse Basketball looks like Football
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 16, 2012 9:40 PM CST up reply actions
NC State looking to knock off Duke
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
As good as T Rich may be
I think of it as Law of Diminishing Returns. How much better does having another star RB makes us? Not much, a good Run D will stop it, spread the talents elsewhere to be productive!
I miss Will Shields and Wille Roaf
nice work on the post. I am not really a fan of taking a RB round 1 but I would take adrian peterson.
I dont see richardson being on adrian petersons level, either that or I have always been a fan of adrian peterson since he came to oklahoma.
ok to my point of my comment. I dont like stats used like that to prove a point, reminds me to much of todd haley and his going for it on 4th down stats, how many times did that really work in our favor for a win? Most of the time we was screaming at the end of games had you just got the field goal and took the points instead of going for it we would have won.
Stats are so hard to really show a situation when you think about it. played inside, played outside, played at home, played away, played on grass that was grown longer making fast players slower, slower players look better ( remember playing vick when he was on atlanta and we grew the grass out and whooped them ), is it snowing, raining, in denver ( mile high air ), is your star QB hurt and your recording stats of your WR being thrown to by tyler palko, is your star LT out and your running back is not doing so good this day, there are so many things where you can go on and on and on how stats are manipulated and dont really prove much of anything of value in an arguement when you actually think about it.
im ranting great post.
if you don't use stats at all to support (or argue against) an argument or position, then what CAN you use? opinion has to be based on something ...
I dont like stats used like that to prove a point
statistics and metrics are relied on by everyone in all facets of life, including football and other sports … I guarantee you Pioli and his staff use statistics constantly, and that goes for both football and non-football related dealings
as someone from Cornell University said …
“Credibility — the ability to speak intelligently is highly valued, use of numbers in a coherent way is essential.”
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
How about an opinion based on tape?
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 16, 2012 11:44 PM CST up reply actions
"In a coherent way."
That’s the gray area. Stats are a starting point, but like chad said, there are too few samples and too many variables in football to use them as the final determination.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
after reading that I take it back, I do like to use stats to a certain point to prove a point.
Sorry everybody uses stats when trying to make a case for this person or that person including me. I just dont like stats that say stuff like you would be better with dan orlozki how ever spelled is better off throwing the ball than adrian peterson running it.
dont get me wrong stats can show one thing but reality can show another, if that means anything. Maybe my whole point is to yes use stats but keep it down to earth with your stat usage. Does that make sense at all. My brain thinks one thing but my fingers cant seem to put out what my brain is thinking. haha. would anyone really prefer a guy who is not even a NFL worthy starter probably a 3rd stringer throwing over adrian peterson running just cause stats say one thing? adrian peterson gets 8 guys in the box all day long every day unlike any other RB sees and still puts up great stats, imagine if the tables was turned and he didnt get 8 guys in the box and had a play action passing game to add to his running experience every sunday, would his stats be alot better? making the case for him be alot better? So would you say if you said yes that its unfair to use stats in a certain way if basically everyone sees what kind of player it is but stats show something else?
I give up, I know using stats is what Me and the rest of the world uses and should use to make a point about somthing or whatever sometimes though stats dont tell the truth is what im getting at.
One of my biggest problems with Haley was that he stooped being agressive.
It’s clear as day that coaches are way too conservative.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Feb 16, 2012 10:50 PM CST up reply actions
False
run heavy teams are doomed to fail in today’s NFL.
KC vs Green Bay this past year.
We won with ball control and defense. If we keep investing in our run game and our nearly stellar defense, who’s to say that we can’t just keep doing that to not be doomed in today’s NFL?
p.s.
fun post. it’s kinda cool having this back and forth debate with different perspectives
by jack_sparrow on Feb 17, 2012 7:26 AM CST up reply actions
We were 7-9, they were 15-1.
In 2010 when our run game was much better, we lost to the Ravens and GB won the SB. GB’s way is better in the long run. You can’t use just one game to propagate a whole philosophy.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
So your point is:
by controlling the ball and playing good defense, we are doomed in today’s NFL?
If not, we’re propagating the same philosophy
by jack_sparrow on Feb 18, 2012 6:58 AM CST up reply actions
I would rather draft a OT or G or TE or DT
We can pickup a Hillis or Tolbert in FA and address other positions in the draft. Depending on what they do in free agency will determine their first rd. pick. If we sign a DT, G, TE, RB in free agency then our 1st pick will be a OT.
I really don't think Richardson will fall that far
and if he does we should use it as trade bait and get more picks.
It's simple... this is why you don't draft TRich in the 1st f'ing round
- KSU-Chief
List of the top 5 rushers in 2011
MJD 60th pick
Ray Rice 50th pick
Michael Turner 154th pick
LeSean McCoy 53rd pick
Arian Foster UDFA
-
List of the top 5 rushers in 2010
Arian Foster UDFA
Jamaal Charles 73rd pick
Michael Turner 154th pick
Chris Johnson 24th pick
MJD 60th pick
Also
You can go ahead and close the thread now. Discussion should be over.
yeah, I really don't see the Chiefs going with Richardon
I think a lot will depend on what happens between now and the draft. I’m hoping we resign both Bowe and Carr but what if we don’t? And RT is a bigger need than RB IMO.
Period. The end. 'Nuff said. Fin.
Well, I guess that’s it then. Brad said the discussion is over, pack it up guys.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Damn. It is pretty hard to refute that.
Doesn’t leave much room for rebuttal, does it? =/
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
Obviously good backs ONLY come out of later rounds.
I hear that one of the best QBs ever was a later round pick too. Guess we should just keep on trying to do it that way. It’s a proven successful method. Let’s ignore individual talent if they are slotted as a first rounder, because, dammit, they’re likely to bust. As a matter of fact, we shouldn’t make ANY first round pick. Let’s just trade them all away for later rounds.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Just saying that the opportunity cost of taking Richardson in the 1st round
over a quality back in the later rounds just isn’t there.
But we don't have a good RT
We have good running backs….
So because we don't have a good RT we should spend the 11th or 12th overall pick on a RT.
Really? Seriously. 12 picks into the draft, and rather than taking a BPA that is another area of need, we absolutely have to take a RT? Really?
I like your list above of good RBs that weren’t first rounders. Should I make a list of good RTs that weren’t first rounders to counter that?
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
You've been trying to prove your point for the last what.... 3 days?
It’s just not working.
Point is, the offensive line is more important ESPECIALLY…read this carefully…especially when you have solid backs already.
RT: Position of need
RB: Not a position of need
OLine importance > RB importance
Why would you not spend your 1st round pick on a position of need?
we have two running backs
it is a position of need
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 17, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
Actually, I think my argument is completely valid.
It’s just close mindedness of guys like you that is dragging this on and on. What get’s me is that I’m NOT against drafting OL in the first. I’m just also open to a RB that should be a top 10 pick being a viable option if he falls to us.
The fact that you just said RB isn’t a position of need proves my point. You think a 175lb and a 190lb back can carry this team? What if one gets hurt? Then it’s 2011 all over again. We absolutely need another RB. And I’d prefer for it to be one better than TJ or Jackie Battle.
Using a top 12 pick on a RT is borderline insane. I see the need at RT, so would honestly be ok with it. What gets me is that completely capable RTs can be had later in the draft. Yes, RBs can too. The difference between you and me, is that I can see value in either taking the BPA in a RB or reaching for a position of need. Either way this team will improve.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Dude, I'm with you
I would really like DeCastro (RG3 most obviously). If he’s gone and KC can’t trade out, Richardson is a great choice.
In accordance with the prophecy
I am the 1%
We have ONE good RB
Who can’t carry the load, nor get short yardage when it’s needed and everyone knows it. On this particular team, with this particular RB, 2nd RB is always gonna be a huge need, and to get a sure shot stud like Trent is worth it, over drafting a RT or G, positions that can be filled in FA or later rounds. If we sign Tolbert, or Bush, or Hillis, etc, then we can look elsewhere in the draft.
I don't think it's an issue so much of ignoring talent
Richardson is definitely talented.
But the chances of finding a very successful RB outside of rounds 1 and 2 are way higher than finding certain other positions.
Anything is possible. But going by probability, you’ve got a much better chance of finding a top tier RB in later rounds.
Plus you have to factor in expected career length when considering the value you’re getting for your first round pick. An RB may last 5 years if he’s successful? (on average).
O Line can easily net you a decade of solid starter play.
I think if we were farther along in our development, as an overall team, isn’t where it should be for us to use 1st round picks on a RB. That’s not saying an RB like Richardson can’t come in and contribute in a meaningful way. But added contributions from the running game at this point, when we desperately need a QB upgrade, and one desperate O Line upgrade – as well as a semi-desperate second O Line upgrade, plus a NT…that doesn’t leave us in a position where adding another RB will have as much of an impact as say, a team that doesn’t have a sure fire RB but has a good O Line and QB.
I don’t think you should never ever take a first round HB. I just think that more times than not, it doesn’t make sense to. And especially in our particular case, it doesn’t. Other teams in their individual situations, it very well may.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
by TRSChief on Feb 17, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
TRS
Nice job concisely stating a solid argument. And I agree.
by Eastcoastransplant on Feb 17, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
agreed
and your last point is why I put the pics of JC and Dex up there. We have solid running backs, getting another one would just be redundant and again, a waste of a 1st round pick.
If you’re a team that thinks you’re a RB away from contending… TRich would be ideal.
You can find top tier RTs in later rounds too:
David Stewart, Titans: 133rd pick.
Todd Herremans, Eagles: 126th pick.
Charles Brown, Saints: 62nd pick.
Eric Winston, Texans: 66th pick
Phil Loadholdt, Vikings: 54th pick
RT is absolutely a need for us. But that doesn’t mean that we HAVE to use a 11/12 overall on one. It seems to me like too many people are overvaluing the position. What’s hilarious is that at the same time they’re making arguments to try and undermine the value of another RB, even though we just got screwed last year when JC went down.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
If we had a solid OLine
It wouldn’t have been so devastating when JC went down.
Are you not understanding that you can improve an OL without using a top 12 pick on it?
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Also understand that we can trade down, still address RT late 1st or 2nd/3rd and have even more picks.
And still be much better off than we would trying to pick up a HB at 11/12.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
Yeah, we can do that to.
I’m open to a lot of different scenarios here, because honestly, I think the Chiefs could draft a kicker at 11th and still win the division, if everyone stays healthy.
But if we’re stuck with Cassel as QB, then I can see the value in putting a badass RB next to Charles too. Guess I’m just a dumbass for being open minded.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Way to terribly overreact about a counter-argument
That simply suggests your idea, though valid, probably won’t help out as much in the long term.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
Overreact? How?
The kicker comment? Well, IMO, it’s true. A healthy Chiefs team next year should win the division. The only thing that will really put us over the hump is a QB. OL, RB, WR, TE, they’ll all improve the offense. The question is which makes the biggest immediate impact, and thus helps us once we do get to the playoffs? IMO, OL and RB would make the most impact, because we already have a circus of receivers that won’t get thrown to a lot. Gotta run the ball like crazy.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Overreact like this:
“Guess I’m just a dumbass for being open minded.”
Sounds like overreaction to me.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
Oh,
Nah, I was just joking. Probably should have used sarcasm font, but I don’t believe in it.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
In all honesty, though
If we don’t manage to trade up for RG3 (please please please let us trade up for RG3) I hope we either get DeCastro or trade down into the mid/late 20’s if possible.
Not like we couldn’t use some more solid picks in rounds 2/3 as thin as our depth is in several spots on the roster.
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
This, this, this
I love me some of this, right chere.
Although, if none of it can happen (which, face it, is usually the case for KC fans), Richardson is not a white elephant gift by any means.
In accordance with the prophecy
I am the 1%
Exactly
If Richardson falling to us would be ideal as it would put us in prime position to trade down. If your dead set on taking a RB high then we could still trade back multiple times to the very end of the first or early second and pick up Lamar Miller. Miller is a far better scheme fit and offers elite speed and athleticism (more of a Charles mold) plus with the extra picks we obtain via the trade down we could land a guard like Glenn, Zietler, or Washignton and a RT like Massie or Sanders. Basically for the one pick you would have used on Richardson you are landing Miller, Zietler and Massie, I’d vastly prefer that everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.
I do agree with this
it is all about possible options at this point
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 17, 2012 5:58 PM CST up reply actions
Hmmm, almost seems like we shouldn't pick ANYbody at 11/12.....
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
I didn't say we have to take an RT in the 1st.
Actually I’m thinking we should be looking rounds 2-3 for RT.
If we can get DeCastro in 1, that’s good.
Or if they think they can get along well with Lilja, or pick up Nicks, or whatever their plan is – trade down, maybe look at Poe for NT.
Or trade up for RG3. Or if we lose Carr, a top CB is a worthy first round pick.
Or if a really talented game changer of a TE is available, trade down and get him later in the first (kid from Clemson, Allen maybe?).
It's no fun if I have to explain it.
You and I completely agree on everything but the RB issue.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Good post
I appreciate the effort and thought that went into writing it. That being said, I hated it in the fact that this is what ALL the posts on Royals Review look like…and I hate it; all numbers (in decimal) and acronyms. Blech.
In accordance with the prophecy
I am the 1%
One other thing:
This post in no way is a case against Richardson. This is a case for QB vs. WR. And I don’t think a single person on AP doesn’t believe that we should take a QB over TRich. Once again, I am 100% behind getting a QB at almost all costs.
And also, your comment of “run heavy teams are doomed to fail in today’s NFL” is a complete falsehood:
The SF 49ers, a run heavy, defensive team took the SB champs down to the wire and only lost to a couple of ST blunders.
The Ravens, another run heavy, defense oriented team, lost to the Pats in the AFC champ game after their kicker missed a 32 yard field goal.
Run heavy, defensive teams are obviously still alive and well in today’s NFL, as evidenced by the fact that 2 of them competed in Conference Championships.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
and lost
agree totally on the discussion, though others disagree
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 17, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
If we got to the AFC Championship game with Matt Cassel and only lost by a FG I'd be thrilled.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
and so upset with that kicker!
But i have more faith in Mr. Irrelevant.
by Eastcoastransplant on Feb 17, 2012 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
Why though? What does that gain us? We wouldn't even get Lamar's trophy back.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Cundiff makes that kick and the Ravens win the coin flip - who knows.
The Niners were abusing Manning and holding them off consistently. One sack strip could have changed the outcome of that game drastically. Instead it was lost on a muffed punt. Pathetic.
Point being, it’s better to be that close rather than not even in the playoffs. How can you not see the value in being in the AFC champ game up til the final seconds?
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Because there's no value in it.
OK, those teams came close. But they didn’t actually GET anything. It’s like saying you feel richer if you stand next to a bank vault.
One sack-strip can change any game. You want to point to how easily the old-style teams could have won, and I completely understand that. And one of those team definitely could win any year. But looking at the overall trends of recent playoff success, the teams with the top passing games and the best QBs are obviously the more successful teams in the long run.
Look, I don’t like how the NFL is trending toward a passing game. I know that it’s a money-grubbing move intentionally designed to draw in casual fans. I cheered a LOT when SF beat NO, just because I so much prefer SF’s style. But I still want my team to succeed, and the last decade’s playoff trends say that the best chance of doing that is with an elite passing game.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
So... What are you saying?
That unless we have the best QB we can, we should just give up, because we’re doomed anyway?
I disagree. If we can’t get the QB we need, then let’s think outside the box and try to run and play defense like no other team ever has. The last thing I want is for the team to go belly up because getting close to the SB just isn’t good enough.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Lol that's the second time you've accused ME of giving up, and your whole post is basically "we're stuck with Cassel so might as well make the best of it."
There’s no reason we can’t get “the QB we need.”
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
And I've agreed about the QB thing like 20 times.
We should get a QB. I think we will.
Unfortunately it takes 2 to tango. There is reason that we won’t get a QB: there’s no guarantee we will be able to trade for Griffin. And if we are unable to trade, then we’re sitting with a 11th pick and there won’t be a viable QB to take.
We have evidence as recently that you can make a strong run for a SB with out a QB. It’s just harder and takes a great run game and defense.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
In other words, resigning yourself to a mediocre quarterback IS giving up.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
I disagree.
Resigning to a Mediocre QB and not making a real effort to improve areas that will help the QB is giving up. My entire spiel on Richardson was done in with the intent to find a way to win in spite of a mediocre QB. That’s far from giving up.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
I don't accept that we can't find a way to trade that draft pick.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Trade back?
Or trade up?
Both are likely, but there’s the possibility that too much will be required to trade up. I’m against giving up too much to get RG3. Anything more than a couple of firsts and 4 mid round picks is my limit.
Trading back is plausible. But we still wont have a QB for this year if we do trade back, right?
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Ryan Tannehill?
But I think the Seahawks draft him if we dont.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
Not really excited about anybody but Luck and RG3 this year.
I’d rather fly with Stanzi another year, than draft Tannehill instead of OL/TE/RB/S/…well, pretty much anything.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Well I'm thinking after a trade back
And we’re gonna fly with Cassel anyways, might as well keep reloading at QB. Its what Pioli wants to do.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 5:35 PM CST up reply actions
Either one.
Trade up would be my first option.
Trade back for future picks would be my second option. For this, I’d trade back in the first round and use that later pick on OG/RT/whatever. The extra pick(s) from the trade would hopefully be a future first/second rounder to be used for QB. And I’d do the same kind of trade with our second round pick.
Trade back for extra picks this year would be my distant third option, as that would improve our team but doesn’t gain us any traction toward getting a top-shelf QB prospect.
Actually using the 11/12 pick and squandering its value for both obtaining a top-shelf QB and improving our Oline and depth would be a total fail in my opinion. I would take the short end of a trade down before I’d actually pick somebody at 11/12.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Clarification -
The extra pick(s) from the trade would hopefully be a future first/second rounder to be used for a 2013 QB.
As in, stockpile picks next year and then use them to trade up, because we shouldn’t be drafting this high next year.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Sorry but Richardson is not All Day... and certainly not a good pick for the Chiefs
Peterson is a good deal faster than Richardson and has much better vision. Also Richardson has benefited greatly from running behind one of the best lines in college football. There is a reason Bama is churning out running backs, and a lot of that is the 5 men in front of them. AP didn’t have anywhere near the line Richardson has. Without a dominant line that can get him into the secondary unscathed Richardson won’t be successful. At the NFL level even a guy as strong as Richardson is isn’t going to be trucking D-Tackles. Honestly backs like this aren’t all that hard to find, build a dominant line and most any back of this type can succeed. Backs like Charles that have great vision, speed, and shiftyness can succeed behind a less than dominant line, power runners like Richardson can’t.
Add in the fact that this is both a very deep draft class at RB and a very strong FA class and it would be ludicrous to squander a first on a player with very low positional value who doesn’t fit our system. There are a number of backs in this class who could be very sucessful in the right situation. If you want a power runner, like Richardson is, you would be better off taking O-Line early and spending a 5th round pick on a Bolden, Ballard, or Ganaway or pick up someone like Law Firm in FA.
Nice contradiction:
it would be ludicrous to squander a first on a player with very low positional value
you would be better off taking O-Line early
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
O-Line has a far higher positional value than complimentary RB
Especially when your team already has the top back the league. Moreso when you factor in length of career. I’d rather have an elite Online for 10+ years that I can plug and play backs behind, than a shiny “star” back for 5 at best especially when he needs that great line to be sucessful.
dont see it hawk.....(hawk work?, meh, ill use it this once)
the value for a RT i could understand, but if you wanted a starting left tackle, heck either thinking about it gives this team a bookend…..to me, that has more value than a hb b ecause a good OL plays til 35-36, a good hb plays til 31-32
Pay Brandon Carr/ Pay Colquitt
Team Colquitt
We're not talking about a LT though.
A LT would be viable for an 11th pick, but that’s irrelevant. Albert’s job isn’t up for discussion here. There is no reason to assume or suspect that Albert is going to be moved. RT is the problem area. We need to address the RT position directly, not via LT.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
How about we pick up a RT
With upside to be a LT?
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 4:24 PM CST up reply actions
Great idea.
Zebrie Sanders, a 2nd round prospect has potential, as he played swing tackle. The reports on him think he’ll make a solid NFL RT day 1, and could possibly progress into the LT position.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
NFL RT day one?
Hardly, NFL RTs can handle a bull rush. Sanders cannot.
Mike Adams in the 1st round on the other hand…
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 4:42 PM CST up reply actions
Well CBS must just be full of shit then:
They’re saying his biggest weakness is against quick pass rushers:
Pass Blocking – Footwork and technique are usually very good. Has a balanced and agile pass protection set that handles all motions effectively. Hand placement is excellent. The one concern is handling the super quick edge rusher. Foot speed and quickness are very good, but not elite. Has the power and bend needed to anchor against the bull rush. Sometimes will attempt to punch too soon, lunge, and fail to transfer power properly as a result.
And I still contend that he’s viable day 1 starter:
Sanders has good quickness, but not elite quickness. Given his superior power, Sanders could easily justify a late First – early Second Round grade as an ORT prospect. Either way, Sanders is an athletically gifted prospect who projects to quickly start in just about every OL scheme the NFL uses.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Yes CBS embellishes players a lot
And does get things wrong.
They really aren’t a gospel, although I do like their rankings for the most part.
From what I’ve seen he’s got serious problems dealing with a Bull rush, and that’s why he’s not going in the first round.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 7:47 PM CST up reply actions
I've heard about his struggles in the Senior Bowl practices.
Though Mills has come up with a very plausible explanation for that. Can’t say myself since I don’t have NFLN. But the non-Senior Bowl reports I’ve read on him make him sound like the best thing since sliced bread and then some. I wouldn’t be one bit upset if we drafted him.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
He proved he can't handle a bull rush
And Mayock said some people are looking at him as a LT only like Derek Sherrod last year.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 4:51 PM CST up reply actions
Well, he's not going to be a LT if he can't handle a bull rush.
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
Which is why he's a year project
Again like Derek Sherrod was supposed to be pre-injury.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Feb 17, 2012 5:34 PM CST up reply actions
Ummm....
spending a 5th round pick on a Bolden, Ballard, or Ganaway or pick up someone like Law Firm in FA.
That’s three rookies and one FA in his 4th season who has only been a primary for 2….
would love a te, would love another hb, but im a believer that you can get your hb's in any round, and can turn even the derrick blalock into 4 td scoring machines if you have a solid o-line
so with that said, draft a tackle, or draft your wilfork. to me, those are your best 1/2 options, and sort of have been for awhile, just sitting waiting to be addressed,.
Pay Brandon Carr/ Pay Colquitt
Team Colquitt
You can get a good player for virtually any position in any round.
Except for arguably QB.
"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.
Pass on Trent Richardson...
Keep Jackie Battle and Jamaal Charles…FIX the QB problem!!! FIX the RT problem!!! FIX the depth problem! FIX the Super Bowl problem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*Follow me @ChiefsatWar (Twitter)
Clark Hunt & Pioli, get some KING KONG BALLS and move up to draft a QB in the 1st RD of the 2012 NFL Draft: RG3 or Luck.
Peyton!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When you gotta go in the lion's den, you don't go quiet. You go in loud, kick the door down and say WHERE IS THE SONUVABITCH. -B. Billick
I think most of us can agree on this
I’d rather take TRich at 11 than all those idiot analysts who think we should take Devon Still or Luke Kuechly.
NO idea how they have jobs.
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