Triple Trade-up Scenario

by ChiefWildcat on Feb 16, 2012 10:24 AM CST

Most of us believe we are a few players away from being Super Bowl contenders. There are a couple of places on the O-line that either need an upgrade or depth needs to be added. We also need to add quality depth at TE and RB. Defensively, we need to upgrade the NT position and acquire quality depth at safety.

The most glaring need, nay, the one position holding us back right now from being contenders, is at QB. I'm not going to go into my usual rant about Matt Cassel, because honestly, I like Matt as a person. I also believe that, at the time, Pioli's decision to trade for Cassel was a good decision. I mean, c'mon, he is better than Tyler Thigpen.

If you'll allow me to play GM, after the jump I will give you the triple trade-up scenario I think could work and wouldn't cost us too much.

I know many of you have speculated what it would cost to trade with St. Louis for the #2 pick. In my opinion, it would cost too much to make that trade from the #11/12 spot. I think it would take this year's 1st and 3rd and next year's 2nd to make that trade.

In my scenario, let's make a trade with Tampa Bay for their #5 pick. I would offer our 1st, one of our 5th and our 7th round picks this year to move from #11/12 to #5. If we are not able to trade-up from here, the we could be stuck with Morris Claiborne, CB LSU. I wouldn't be disappointed with that. You may ask, why would Tampa make this trade? Many mock drafts have them targeting Trent Richardson, RB Alabama. I believe Richardson would still be available to them at the #11/12 pick. Therefore, they still get the guy they want, plus they get 2 additional picks.

Now that we have the #5 pick, let's talk to St. Louis about that #2 selection. Again, many mock drafts have St. Louis targeting Justin Blackmon, WR OSU. I believe he would still be available at the #5 spot, so let's offer our 1st and 4th round picks and move up to #2.

Many of you would be happy at this point, because we could now draft RGIII. Not me. I want to take 1 more step.

Jim Irsay is in a tough spot right now. He has made it known that he wants to draft Andrew Luck. Luck has made it known that he wants to be a starting QB in his first year. Peyton Manning has made it known he would like to retire as a Colt. What the heck is Irsay going to do?

How about we offer our #2 pick, Glenn Dorsey and our second 5th round pick for the opportunity to draft Andrew Luck. Irsay can then take RGIII and let him develop behind Manning.

In the end, we will have given up a 4th, 2 5th, a 7th and Glenn Dorsey for the QBOTF. Andrew Luck just might make us Super Bowl contenders in 2012.

As GM, I would then address RT with our 2nd round selection, pick up a TE or RB in the 3rd and safety help with our 6th.

What do you think about this scenario?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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ha! I think you have a great imagination :-)

thanks for sharing!

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"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
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hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 10:29 AM CST reply actions

Why, Thank You Ups

this is much better than arguing politics.

2010 = The beginning of a dynasty

by ChiefWildcat on Feb 16, 2012 10:37 AM CST up reply actions

So we give up basically nothing and move all the way to the top spot?

OK. You forgot to mention what fans, players, coaches and FO personnel are going to sell their souls to the Devil to allow this.

by km230015 on Feb 16, 2012 10:37 AM CST reply actions

hey, gotta take a great deal when you can get it, right? :-)

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 10:39 AM CST up reply actions

You know, now that I look at it again

I probably didn’t give St. Louis enough in that deal. I would probably need to sweeten it with next year’s 3rd. However, with that correction, yes I think we could move to the top without giving up the entire farm.

2010 = The beginning of a dynasty

by ChiefWildcat on Feb 16, 2012 10:41 AM CST up reply actions

where did we get a second 5th round pick?

ok, so …

Tampa Bay trade: we move up for a 5th and 7th … doubtful but I’ll play along
St Louis trade: we move up again for a 4th … also doubtful, but what the heck, why not

then …

How about we offer our #2 pick, Glenn Dorsey and our second 5th round pick

never mind that it’s going to cost a lot more than that, regardless of where we are … not that Indy is going to part with that pick anyway, but it would take a LOT more than what you offer here

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 10:50 AM CST up reply actions

OK, get me off the Kool-aid

what do you think it would take for Tampa?

I already admitted I would need to sweeten the St. Louis deal, but what is realistic?

Honestly, to trade up 1 spot, I think a former 1st round draft pick, who would fit perfectly in their 4-3 defense, and an additional pick, would be tempting to Irsay.

2010 = The beginning of a dynasty

by ChiefWildcat on Feb 16, 2012 11:06 AM CST up reply actions

for us to trade up to #1 would basically cost 2 - #1's and 2 - #2's

minimum, and that’s if we’re lucky to get it all done … ie, if Colts would even accept that

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions

and as for Dorsey, we'll be fortunate to get a 3rd Rounder for him

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions

IND is getting Luck barring a MAJOR change

There’s a reason they didn’t bother to claim Orton (who was a way better option than anyone they had) and completely cleaned out their franchise employees.

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Feb 16, 2012 10:47 AM CST reply actions

that was a true suck for Luck move, or non-move by Indy

by tomachop on Feb 17, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

I think it would take more a 5th...

Teams trade their 1st and 2nd picks to move up 10 0r 12 picks…

by cyberry on Feb 16, 2012 10:50 AM CST reply actions

sorry..already being discussed..

by cyberry on Feb 16, 2012 10:58 AM CST up reply actions

you make a good point ... you simply don't (can't) move up the ladder for as little as is proposed here

no way you move up 6-7 spots for a 5th and 7th

If a team wants to move up from No. 3 to No. 1, it’ll cost them 800 points. That means it’ll have to trade its second- and third-round picks (550 + 255 = 805) to make the move.

that’s for starters …

using the chart (linked above) it’s 450 pts to go from 11 up to 5 …as per the chart, our 5th and 7tth are 47 points TOTAL … just not gonna happen

would take a MINIMUM of 2nd and 5th and probably a player, more likely 2nd and 4th and even then a player

then, moving from the 5 spot to the 2 spot is another 900 pts … that’s next year’s 1st and probably another middle rounder this or next year

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions

OK, so realistically

Tampa – this year’s 2nd round pick= 470 points

St. Louis- to move from #5 to #2= next year’s 1st= ? points, so add this year’s 5th.

Indy- to move up 1 spot costs 400 points. I think Dorsey and next year’s 3rd would be enough.

So we give up this year’s 2nd and 5th and next year’s 1st and 3rd and Glenn Dorsey. I would still make that trade for our QBOTF.

2010 = The beginning of a dynasty

by ChiefWildcat on Feb 16, 2012 11:31 AM CST up reply actions

Realistically

You can package every pick we have together and have about 2,080 points. Not quite good enough to move up to #3.

2012 Goal: Be invited to Lady Buttercup's spring ball.
2012 Resolution: To establish a better cravat collection than anyone else on AP.
2012 Wish: Chiefs Super Bowl

by The Gentry on Feb 16, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions

You are not factoring in what our pick at #11/12 is worth

It would only take around 950 points to move from #11 to #3.

2010 = The beginning of a dynasty

by ChiefWildcat on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 AM CST up reply actions

that's MINIMUM what it would take ... realistically more than that

the higher you go the more you have a “value added” thing … but you’re correct, it wouldn’t take ALL of our picks to move up

but, more than your original post offered, by far … and to move up to #1 or even #2 … way, way more

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 12:10 PM CST up reply actions

I will say this ...

if you actually COULD pull off your original scenario, you’d be named NFL Executive of the Year, and maybe Decade :-)

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions

Of all-time

All-time.

by km230015 on Feb 16, 2012 1:27 PM CST up reply actions

I absolutely factored in our 1st round

rounds 2-7 all added together only equal 834(ish) points

2012 Goal: Be invited to Lady Buttercup's spring ball.
2012 Resolution: To establish a better cravat collection than anyone else on AP.
2012 Wish: Chiefs Super Bowl

by The Gentry on Feb 16, 2012 3:55 PM CST up reply actions

StL is going to get 2 1s for RG3,

the bidding is going to be about gravy on top of the 2 1s. No way they take less than 2 1s, no way Pioli gives up 2 1s for a spread guy. As for Luck and Indy, they’re taking him. Irsay is just playing politics by saying he wants Manning to stay. If he hadn’t decided to take Luck and move on, he wouldn’t have fired everybody.

Pioli is 10 times more likely to trade down than up. A post about a triple trade down scenario, where we end up picking 35th and taking Hightower, Sanders, and Poe all in the second round and having an extra 1st rounder in 2013 would be way more realistic.

sooner or later, God'll cut you down...

by nmchief on Feb 16, 2012 11:20 AM CST reply actions

Plus teams don't trade until they're up...

So you can’t trade with TB before Indy even makes their pick as TB will want to see how the rest of the draft unfolds before doing anything. If TB is targeting Richardson but for some reason Cleveland takes him at #4, they have no reason to move down if they have someone else they can take at #5. Fun to think that we could game the system, but it’s never going to happen. You’d have to make a trade with Indy straight away, and we don’t have the firepower to do it.

by excidium on Feb 16, 2012 11:22 AM CST reply actions

yup ... either Indy or St Louis

or whoever is #2 right now … that’s about it

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions

The math is lacking

Check out a draft chart and see how little you’re offering: http://www.drafttek.com/tradechart.html

You gave TB essentially 1300 points to move up and take their pick that is valued at 1700 points.

Then you gave StL 1780 points to get their pick valued at 2600.

Then you gave Indy 2600 + a phantom 5th round pick that would be worth no more than 43 points for a pick valued at 3000 points.

2012 Goal: Be invited to Lady Buttercup's spring ball.
2012 Resolution: To establish a better cravat collection than anyone else on AP.
2012 Wish: Chiefs Super Bowl

by The Gentry on Feb 16, 2012 11:34 AM CST reply actions

what, my draft chart wasn't good enough for you? (grin)

had it linked in comment above … it’s all good, man :-)

by upamtn on Feb 16, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions

I like it but don't think it will happen

but I’d take RG3 before I took luck even with the first pick therefore we go after the #2 pick I think luck will be like rivers good pocket passer but way more smarts but same mobility eventual he has weak knees so I believe RG3 will have a better career when all said and done IMO

by kcchiefs2782 on Feb 16, 2012 12:27 PM CST via Android app reply actions

If we could trade our 1st, 3rd, and next year's second and get RG3

let it be done. I am predicting 2 #1’s minimum for RG3. Probably 2#1’s and a number 3.

And lo and behold, Cleveland has 2#1’s THIS YEAR, and one of them is at #4.

Offer Bowe (tag and trade), and our #1 and a #4 next year to move from #11 to #2, and let’s get our QBOTF. Then let’s get a WR in FA, like V-Jax or Colston, or even Stevie Johnson.

by AnkenyChiefsFan on Feb 16, 2012 1:54 PM CST reply actions

like that but won't happen

by kcchiefs2782 on Feb 16, 2012 11:03 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

Great Trade.....

If you are playing Madden!

by freshinator on Feb 16, 2012 2:45 PM CST reply actions

RG3

should cost at least 2 first round and 1 second round pick imo.

by andrew33 on Feb 16, 2012 2:46 PM CST reply actions

Why not just say...

Beat up Jim Irsay on the way to the draft and steal his lunch money.

Blame my wife!
Just because I haven't responded, doesn't mean you won the argument!

by sir eccles on Feb 16, 2012 5:11 PM CST reply actions

for that scenario

our # 11 is worth around 1250 pts.

TB’s #5 is worth around 1700 pts.

To trade up to #5 would cost our 1st + our 2nd.

Our new 1st rounder (#5) would be worth around 1700 pts. Our 4th rd would be worth around 80 pts for a total of 1780 pts.

St Louis’ #2 would be worth around 2600 pts….

We would need to trade our 1st Rd (#5 overall) and come up with another 900 pts or so.
Our 3rd rd pick would be worth around 200 pts. That still leaves around 700 pts.

Our 1st rd next year loses half its value in a trade this year. future picks are generally = to one rd less than their equivalent in present years. Thus 2013 1st rd traded in 2012 = 2nd rd, 2013 2nd rd in 2012= 3rd rd and so on…

Next year’s 1st rd (depending on how exactly they decide that one rd less value) would be worth anywhere from 270-580 pts. Lets say they value it off of where we pick this year. That would mean our 2013 1st rd is worth 470 pts.

Thus our new 1st rd (#5) + 3rd rd + 2013 1st rd= around 2370 pts. Still at least 230 pts short of minimum value needed for the trade. We’d have to give up our 2013 2nd rd (valued down to a 2012 3rd rounder) to come up with another 215 pts.

That gives us a total of 2585 pts. From there we’re essentially a 6th rd pick away from the minimum required to move up to #2 overall.

Quick recap of picks lost to move from #11 to #2:

-2012 1st.
-2012 3rd.
-2012 6th.
-2013 1st.
-2013 2nd.

So then we get the overall #2 pick, worth around 2600 pts.

We still have to move up 400 more pts to trade up to 3000 pt #1 overall.

It was suggest to trade our #2, 5th rd and Dorsey.

Our 5th is only worth around 36 pts. Dorsey, valued at a 3rd rd pick, brings in 120-260 pts. If you value him at Indy’s 3rd rounder, you could get around 265 pts for him.

If he is valued by Indy as a 2nd rder, and valued as their 2nd rd pick, he becomes worth 580 pts and the scenario doesn’t seem so far-fetched, but then you’d be overpaying by essentially a mid to lower 2nd rd pick and then throwing in an extra 5th for no reason.

But assuming he has top of the 3rd rd value for Indy, + the 5th rd pick, you’re still 100 pts or so short. That means throwing in a 4th and a 6th.

So the final bill to move up from #11 to #1 and draft Luck=
-2012 1st.
-2012 3rd.
-2012 4th.
-2012 5th.
-2012 6th.
-2013 1st.
-2013 2nd.
-Dorsey.

That leaves 2012 2nd and 7th rd picks
and 2013 3rd-7th rd picks.

And that is all assuming that you can move up around those values. With competition, you end up overpaying.

I should also note that instead of trading Dorsey and the 4th and 6th, you could also just throw in this year’s 2nd rd pick. You could still trade Dorsey to Indy and get their 2012 3rd rd.
And we’d still have 2012 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th.

In the end, I’m not sure it is really worth it to trade away that many picks just to draft Luck. And after all, if the Colts wanted to keep Manning and draft their QBOTF, AKA RG III, they wouldn’t have fired Polian (what he wanted to do), and they wouldn’t need to trade with KC to do it.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 8:33 AM CST reply actions

I'd much rather

Trade Dorsey for a 3rd. Trade Our 1st and our 2 3rds to move up to TB’s #5.

1250+ 215+260= 1725.

And/or Tag and trade Carr for a 1st. That would give you the points you need to move up to StL’ #2 if you think that’s what it will take to draft RG III.

Bill for RG III=
-2012 1st
-2012 3rd
-Dorsey (= 3rd, traded)
-Carr (=1st, traded)

If Carr isn’t interested in signing a long-term contract, or a ‘fair’ valued contract, it would be better to tag and trade him.

We’d still have our 2nd, 4th-7th rd picks. And we wouldn’t have to surrender any picks in 2013, which would allow KC to move back up into rounds if they saw a guy they wanted.

**If you don’t think Carr is worth a 1st rd pick, note: even if he is only worth a 2nd rd, he still nets 500+ pts, good enough to move up to #3 overall. If Luck/RG III aren’t there at #3/#5 you can trade down and accumulate draft picks.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 8:49 AM CST up reply actions

edit:

-2012 1st.
-2012 2nd rd.
-2012 3rd.
-2012 6th.
-2013 1st.
-2013 2nd.

and

So the final bill to move up from #11 to #1 and draft Luck=
-2012 1st.
-2012 2nd.
-2012 3rd.
-2012 4th.
-2012 5th.
-2012 6th.
-2013 1st.
-2013 2nd.
-Dorsey.

That leaves 2012 ~~2nd and~~ 7th rd picks
and 2013 3rd-7th rd picks.

I accidentally left out the 2012 2nd it would take to move up to #5 overall.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 8:58 AM CST up reply actions

and again

I should also note that instead of trading Dorsey and the 4th and 6th, you could also just throw in this year’s 2nd rd pick. You could still trade Dorsey to Indy and get their 2012 3rd rd.
And we’d still have 2012 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 8:59 AM CST up reply actions

I'm not sure it's worth trading that much for like God hisself ... need to see Him at the Combine before I could say with any certainty

super nice job, Stevie!!!

by upamtn on Feb 17, 2012 2:44 PM CST up reply actions

I'm not a strong advocate for it

but if you’re going to do it (which I don’t believe Pioli will), that’s what it will take (at least)!

Personally, I’m hoping for Orton to get re-signed. Let Orton, Cassel and Stanzi compete.

I’d rather go DeCastro, Allen, Sanders, Safety the first four picks, but that’s just me.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions

though if I was going to do it, i'd lean toward trading Dorsey, tagging and trading Carr, throwing in a third and swapping 1st rounders.

easiest way to the points.

the question is: Is RG III or Luck greater than or equal to Carr + Dorsey +2012 3rd rd pick?

If you answer YES, then I guess you should at least try to make the deal.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions

draft math is confusing and complicated. edit 2.0:

That gives us a total of 2585 pts. From there we’re essentially a 6th rd pick away from the minimum required to move up to #2 overall.

and…

But assuming he has top of the 3rd rd value for Indy, + the 5th rd pick, you’re still 100 pts or so short. That means throwing in a 4th and a 6th.

Unless we find another 6th (Orton walking???), that pick would have to be a 2013 5th rd to make up the points for another 2012 6th….

Thus (one more time):

So the final bill to move up from #11 to #1 and draft Luck=
-2012 1st.
-2012 2nd.
-2012 3rd.
-2012 4th.
-2012 5th.
-2012 6th.
-2013 1st.
-2013 2nd.
-2013 5th.
-Dorsey.

That leaves 2012 7th rd and 2013 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th rd picks.

So Luck (as opposed to RG III) would cost AT LEAST every pick the next two drafts BUT our 2012 & 2013 7th round picks, our 2013 3rd, 4th, and 6th picks.

9 draft picks to move up from #11 to #1.

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 4:12 PM CST up reply actions

uhhmmmmm, no freakin'way

by tomachop on Feb 17, 2012 2:44 PM CST reply actions

I love this:

I know many of you have speculated what it would cost to trade with St. Louis for the #2 pick. In my opinion, it would cost too much to make that trade from the #11/12 spot. I think it would take this year’s 1st and 3rd and next year’s 2nd to make that trade.

next year’s second becomes a 3rd this year.

I love how swapping firsts this year (2600 vs 1250) and throwing two 3rds (215+215*) is costing too much *(1670). In reality, that point total almost (notice the word) get’s you up to the #5 overall pick (1700).

In reality, just to move up to #2 (2600), it would cost 2012 1st (1250), 2nd (470), 3rd (215), 2013 1st (470) & 2nd (215) strictly going off of the draft trade value chart. (2615) pts….

"At one point in your life you either have the thing you want or the reasons why you don't "

by chief Stevie_k on Feb 17, 2012 4:26 PM CST reply actions