FanPost

How Chiefs Missed Opportunity by Passing on Dalton, Kaepernick, Osweiler and Foles

Isn't it obvious that KC totally botched on not selecting a QB, one of history' best QB class in 2012 Draft? It's sad but also true to their demise as history proves how inept this Kansas City organization has been when it came to when and where to select a QB from the NFL draft.

Let's take a look at the years KC decides to invest in a QB from the Draft. (On the basis of the team picking a QB in Rounds 3 and above. Basically, if a team takes a QB in Rounds 4-7, its an indication that they were not serious and have very little confidence that the player could start in the same season) In short, you'd want your team to be selecting QB in picks 1-90 (basically Rounds 1 through 3). It's quite clear that your chances are much higher to land a Superbowl winning QB in rounds 1-3 as opposed to any other rounds including an undrafted player. One must also not overlook the particular year of drafting a QB, understanding that your odds increases significantly when selecting an eventual elite passer in the year of strong QB class (ie. 1983, 2004, 2011, 2012).

The illustration below depicts the number of QB's who've won a superbowl in the past 46 Superbowls.

  • QB DRAFTED IN PICKS 1-90
    21 Total QBs won a combined 34 Superbowls = 74% chance your team wins with a QB drafted in these rounds
  • QB DRAFTED IN PICKS 91-211 (including undrafted player)
    8 Total QBs won a combined 12 Superbowls = only 25% chance your team wins with a QB drafted in these rounds

Sb_qb_full_2_medium

via sixteenwins.com

Another cool factoid to take note: About how long does it take for a young QB drafted by the team to win a Superbowl? In other words, how long should a team wait to see if their young signal caller is the Franchise QB. It'll be shocking to see that most young QBs take no more than 4 years, maybe 5 to carry the team to a Superbowl, and most of them win.

1965 - Joe Namath - took 4 years, team won its first SB
1967 - Bob Griese - took 5 years, team won its first SB
1970 - Terry Bradshaw - took 5 years, team won its first SB
1979 - Joe Montana - took 4 years, team won its first SB
1982 - Jim McMahon - took 4 years, team won its first SB
1983 - Dan Marino - took 2 years, team lost the SB to 49ers (Montana)
1983 - John Elway - took 5 years, team lost the SB to NY Giants (Simms)
1984 - Boomer Esiason - took 4 years, team lost the SB to 49ers (Montana)
1989 - Troy Aikman - took 4 years, team won its first SB
1991 - Brett Favre* - took 5 years, team won the SB (Favre did not start until his 2nd season)
1993 - Drew Bledsoe - took 4 years, team lost the SB to Packers (Favre)
1995 - Steve McNair - took 5 years, team lost the SB to Rams (Warner)
1999 - Donovan McNabb* - took 6 years, team lost the SB to Patriots (Brady)
2000 - Tom Brady* - took 1 year, team won the SB (Brady did not start until his 2nd season)
2004 - Ben Roethlisberger - took 2 years, team won the SB
2004 - Eli Manning - took 4 years, team won the SB
2005 - Aaron Rodgers - took 3 years, team won the SB (Rodgers did not start until his 4th season)

My point here is - if Kansas City Chiefs select a QB with their 1st overall pick in 2013, it shouldn't take the Chiefs more than 5 years to reach the Superbowl if they indeed drafted the franchise QB. It's also save to say that the window is closing for Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco because they're both in their 5th year as starter since being drafted. Based on this same analogy, Stafford and Freeman will have until next year to proof if they are franchise worthy. Again, my analogy doesn't eliminate the possibility of these young QB's ever winning a SB but it just shows that it doesn't take more than 4-5 years to determine if you have the RIGHT GUY. Ryan, Stafford, Flacco, Freeman may one day take a team to the Superbowl but if a team waits, they may have passed on other young prospective QBs along the way that could have been the franchise.

Here's an excerpt from Bleacher Report (Published around training camp August, 21, 2012)

The Kansas City Chiefs have employed their share of rag-tag quarterbacks over the years. Aside from the franchise’s best quarterback, Len Dawson, the brief love affair with Joe Montana and the Trent Green years, the Chiefs have been void of quarterback play that the team or the city can be proud of.

However, the Chiefs have no one to blame but themselves. Kansas City drafted Todd Blackledge out of Penn State with the seventh overall pick in the 1983 NFL Draft. Since then, the Chiefs have taken a quarterback in the first three rounds just three times (Mike Elkins, second round in 1989, Matt Blundin, second round in 1992 and Brodie Croyle, third round in 2006).

This year’s quarterback class was led by Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. And while there seemed to be a huge drop-off in talent after these two, the remaining cast of arms certainly wasn’t void of talent in their own right. Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden might have been reaches in the first round. But Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles have unquestionably outplayed their draft position, and either would fit quite nicely behind—or even in front of Matt Cassel in some circles—in a Chiefs uniform. (keep in mind this was in August 2012, not after what we've witnessed of Foles and Cousins' ability to direct an offense as a rookie. Add to it, after this was published, Pete Carroll named Russell Wilson the starter after its final pre-season game)

The entire article from Jeremy Sickel is available here

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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