FanPost

Quarterback "Crapshoot" for 2013.


Anyway we slice it, we will have a high pick in the next draft. If we truly need a QB, the upcoming draft will be our best opportunity in a long time. My main concern is that having the first pick does not guaranty making the right choice. My second concern is that the quality of QBs available varies so much from year to year that a quality QB may not be available at any pick.

A brief look at the last fifteen years of drafted Quarterbacks shows that the draft will yield a QB worthy of the pick about half the time. Not much better than flipping a coin or playing Black at Roulette (House odds).

Twelve QBs have been selected 1st overall in the last fifteen years. Seven of those are starting in the NFL right now. Only eight of fifteen of the first QBs taken by any team are starting right now. Forty QBs have been taken in the 1st round in the last fifteen years and only 23 of them are starting right now.

I read somewhere that the history of the draft shows the average draft pick will yield a contributing player less than half the time. I also recall that throughout the history of the draft a 1st round pick of any position yields a longtime, starting player only about 57% of the time. Here are most of the "impact" QBs for the last fifteen years and overall draft position:

2012 - #1 Luck, #2 RGll, #8 Tannyhill, #23 Weeden, #57 Oswieller, #75 Wilson, #88 Foles.

2011 - #1 Cam Newton, #8 Locker, #10 Gabbert, #12 Ponder, #35 Dalton, #36 Kaepernick.

2010 - #1 Bradford, #25 Tebow, #155 Skelton.

2009 - #1 Staffford, #5 Sanchez, #17 Freeman.

2008 - #3 Matt Ryan, #18 Flacco.

2007 - #1 Russell, #22 Quinn.

2006 - #3 Vince Young, #10 Leinart, #11 Cutler.

2005 - #1 Alex Smith, #24 Aaron Rogers, #25 Jason Campbell, #203 Matt Cassel, #250 Ftzpatrick.

2004 - #1 Eli Manning, #4 Rivers, #11 Rothlisberger, #22 Loshman, #90 Schaub.

2003 - #1 Palmer, #7 Leftwich, Undrafted Romo.

2002 - #1 Carr, #3 Harrington, #32 Ramsey, #81 McCown, #108 Garrard.

2001 - #1 Vick, #32 Drew Brees, #53 Carter, #59 Tuiasopopo.

2000 - #18 Pennington, #65 Giovani Carnazzi.

1999 - #1 Tim Couch, #3 Akili Smith, #11 Culpepper, #12 Cade McNown.

1998 - #1 Peyton Manning, #2 Ryan Leaf, #60 Charlie Batch.

Some quick (non-scientific) Calculations show that:

The odds of using a 1st overall on a QB and succeeding are 7 in 12 or 58.3 %.

The odds of using a 1st round pick by any team on QB and succeeding are 8 in 15 or 53.3%.

The odds of any QB taken by any team in the first round succeeding are 23 in 40 or 57.5 %.

The starting QB of 23 of the 32 NFL teams is from the 1st round or 72%.

Like it or not we are stuck with taking a QB in the 1st round to optimize our chance for success at that position.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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