Overvaluing the Draft

So we all are expecting a top draft pick from the Chiefs this year. This has us salivating over a top QB coming in and saving the day. Looking at the QB class for this year and I’m sure that there will be some movement here and there but really there are 3 Top QBs so far. Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Tyler Wilson. We all think that Barkley is not the right fit here, so that leaves us with 2 possible QBs as of right now that are worth a top 8 pick. The problem is what happens if the Chiefs win a couple of games. What happens if we end up 4-12, 5-11? We might not be in a position to draft one of those two QBs. Would you then like to reach for a QB like a E.J. Manuel , Tyler Bray or Aaron Murray all which we aren’t sure will even enter the draft at this point. Taking one of them just so we have "change" even though their ceiling might be no higher than let’s say a Matt Schaub or Tony Romo or Michael Vick. If that’s the best that they are going to do and history shows that they won’t even come close to that which I will show, then why not just go get one of those guys?

Schaub will be a free agent at the end of the year and the Texans I’m sure will do anything they can to keep him, but they are tapped out when it comes to space with only 2.3 million in cap space (second lowest amount in the league). Romo and Vick, which if one of those teams doesn’t make the playoffs their QB situation will at least be a hot topic and they will be entertaining the idea. For argument sake, let’s say we ended up with the 6th overall pick. The Cowboys or Eagles are around 20th. We trade down 14 spots. To do that they would have to give up a late first round draft pick to move up that many spots or their QB. We could then use that pick to take a guy like E.J. Manuel, Tyler Bray or Aaron Murray.

Taking a top QB puts all of our eggs and one basket and with the talent that we have on our team that is ready now, we don’t have a couple of years to wait before it is past us. This way though we cushion the blow and eliminate some of the risk by taking a young QB, but giving him time to develop. I will show you how risky it is to actually take a QB in the first round and how often it doesn’t work out.

I will go from 2002-2010. The quarterbacks taken in the last two years it is hard to tell right now if they are going to be a franchise QB or not. I listed the QBs taken in the first round and those that are just even decent QBs I listed as a success.

2002- David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey. Just a bad class. 0/3

2003- Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyler Boller, Rex Grossman. I’ll give Palmer, but that’s not saying much to my standard 1/4

2004- Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J. P. Losman. Probably the best QB class in the last decade. 3/4

2005- Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers , Jason Campbell. I’m including Smith just because he’s turned a corner of not throwing the ball to the other team every other drive. 2/3

2006- Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler. Bad misses with the first two 1/3.

2007- Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn. Wow bad. 0/2

2008- Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco. Both good picks. 2/2

2009- Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman. I’m not counting Sanchez or Freeman because both could be replaced at the end of the year. 1/3

2010-Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow. Not counting either since Bradford has shown me nothing. 0/2

If you add it all up its 10/26 or 38%. Getting one in the second round doesn’t seem to be the answer either as in the same time frame the number is 0/10. Kevin Kolb is the best QB in that group.

So while it would be nice to have a new and exciting young QB here, we are taking a big risk. It might be possible to get a QB who might not be winning multiple playoff games every year, but it at least gives us a chance to win now while developing a QB. Drafting a top QB doesn’t fix everything. It does give us hope which I would welcome but just because we have hope doesn’t mean that we have success. Getting a proven QB while drafting one late in the 1st round I think gives us the best chance to win next year but doesn’t jeopardize us long term.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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