FanPost

Historical Context

The Chiefs are at -13 in turnover differential. This is the only stat you need in order to explain why we're 1-3. We become the 6th team in NFL history to be -13 through the first four games, and none of those other five teams were better than 1-3, and most were 0-4.

But of this group, the Chiefs stand alone in one very important way. Before the Chiefs, the best team by yard margin (offensive yards minus yards allowed) was the 1967 Buffalo Bills, who were at -246 through 4 weeks in that category. The Chiefs, right now, are at +342. That's right, our yards margin is almost 600 yards better than any other team with our turnover differential.

So if we want a better representation of what we can expect from the Chiefs here on out, we should look at high turnover teams who also had very good yard margins.

If we shift our criteria so that you "only" need to be -10 in turnover differential, but also have to be at least +300 in yard margin, there are now only 4 other teams in NFL history who are comparable to the Chiefs. Looking at these teams should give us some idea where exactly we stand.

Below, I have the four teams listed from worst to best.

1992 Los Angeles Raiders

Turnover margin (through week 4): -11

Yard margin (through week 4): +445

Record (through week 4): 0-4

Final record: 7-9

The Raiders started out 0-4, and like us mainly had a losing record because of turnovers. The only game that was bad outside of turnovers was their game against the Chiefs in week 4, where they were only -1 in turnover margin yet lost by 20 points.

After their 0-4 start, they went 7-5. The fact that the worst team in this group had a winning record after week 4 is promising.

The following season they went 10-6 and won a playoff game

1981 Washington Redskins

Turnover margin (through week 4): -11

Yard margin (through week 4): +492

Record (through week 4): 0-4

Final record:8-8

The Redskins went 0-4 in their first 4 games, losing all of them by double digits. But unlike the Raiders, they continued their turnover and losing ways for another game, where they lost by 13 while losing the turnover battle 6-2.

After their first 4 games, they went 8-4. This is about the same as a 10-6 or 11-5 team through 16 games, but their poor start was too much to overcome.

The next season they went 8-1 and won the Super Bowl.

2011 Pittsburgh Steelers

Turnover margin (through week 4): -10

Yard margin (through week 4): +329

Record (through week 4): 2-2

Final record:12-4

Yes, last year the Steelers were a member of this group. They were able to go 2-2 despite their awful turnover margin because almost all of their turnovers (7) came in the first game of the season against the Ravens. Remember when the Ravens blew them out and everybody was shocked? Well, now you know why it happened.

Similarly to the Chiefs, they also won a game despite a -2 turnover margin when they beat the Colts in week 3. Their second loss was against the Texans, when they only lost the turnover margin by 1.

After their 2-2 start, they went 10-2, losing to the Ravens (again) and the 49ers (in a game where they lost the turnover battle 4-0).

As you probably remember, they made the playoffs, but since the Ravens won the division, they went to Denver and lost in what was one of the biggest playoff upsets in the last 20 years.

1967 Green Bay Packers

Turnover margin (through week 4): -10

Yard margin (through week 4): +730

Record (through week 4): 3-0-1

Final record:9-4-1

Holy crap that team was good. They beat the Bears despite having a -7 turnover margin in the game! They are a clear outlier in this group.

Somehow they managed to do worse after week 4, going 6-4. They, of course, went on to win their second straight Super Bowl. The next season they went 6-7-1. So, yeah, that was a weird team.

Every single team in this category won more games than they lost after week 4. That's because the yard differential stat is much easier to do consistently than the turnover stat is. So, while the turnover differential regressed to the mean, they continued to outplay their opponents in terms of gaining yards.

In short, it's not time to panic yet. There is virtually no way we can continue this pace of turning it over.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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