FanPost

Dispelling Myths

To be honest I'm writing this because I am tired of a few pessimistic outlooks here at AP. Things like the Chiefs are cheap, Pioli will never make a move a QB because of his ego and love for Cassel, and this underlying theme that they don't want to win or its not at the top of their priority list. I don't buy into these story lines and after the jump I hope to show you why. I could be wrong, maybe I'm the delusional one, but I think I can make a decent case.

One thing is for sure, we will find out what the Chiefs are made of this offseason, as how they handle the QB situation and what hey do in free agency, especially with Bowe and Carr's contracts or lack thereof. Lets address the first notion that the Chiefs are cheap, thus meaning Bowe and/or Carr will walk and we won't make any key acquisitions. According to Pioli and local media, last August, the Chiefs had spent 119 million on players. This figure includes the Hali extension, but not the Flowers extension. Now, the Chiefs don't release details to their contracts, but based on similar contracts I've looked at Flowers probably got paid around 15 million this past season, which came in the form of a 11 million dollar signing bonus and a 4 million dollar base. So for what we might call a fiscal year, we know the Chiefs are willing to spend up to 134 million on players. Remember, cash spent is not the same as the CAP figures. And this seems legitimate from a business standpoint since the Chiefs receive, and I'm probably low balling this, 150 million in shared revenue from the league. So before he sells a single ticket Hunt's main labor cost, and probably the stadium financing are covered. So, lets take a hypothetical look at this coming offseason and see what the budget looks like for 2012, based on what we KNOW Clark is willing to spend. Here is what the Chiefs owe to their players already under contract; their 1st figure is their base salary and the one in () is a bonus if applicable. I rounded up for even numbers and to account for things like workout bonuses.

Albert - 1.1

Arenas - .5

Asamoah - .5

Bailey - .4*

Bair - .4

Baldwin - .9

Belcher - 1* [tender]

Berry - 3.9

Breaston - 1.8(1.5)

Brown - .4

Cassel - 5.3

Charles - 3.3

Colquitt - 1.8

Copper - .9*

Dorsey - 4.4

Flowers - 4(3)*

Gafford - .7

Greenwood - .6

Hali - 14*

Harris - .4*

Houston - .5

Hudson - .6*

Jackson - 2.5

DJ - 3

Lewis - .5

McCluster - .5

Miller - .4*

Mims - .4*

Moeaki - .5

Powe - .4*

Sheffield - .4

Siler - .8*

Stanzi - .5*

Studebaker - 1.5

Succop - 2(2)

Williams - 1.5

TOTAL: 68.1

*Denotes estimate due to undisclosed terms, based on comparative contracts

So we assume all those guys make the roster (Lilja isn't up there because I think he will get cut) we would spend 68.1 million dollars, leaving us 65.9 million for rookies and free agency if Hunt was to spend 134 million again. The Texans, who drafted 11th last year, had 5.6 million to spend per their rookie pool. Lets assume we draft at 11, the rookie pool goes up to 6, and then lets add another half a million for practice squad players and camp bodies. So after we take that out that leaves us with 59.4 million for veteran free agents. Lets take a hypothetical look at what that will buy:

Brandon Carr

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I think Carr can get Jonathan Joseph money on the open market. They are similar players considering their measurables and Joseph played across a good player as well at Cinci in Leon Hall. Joseph got 5 years 48.75 million, 23.5 guaranteed. I think Carr will be flexible with us since he wants to stay a Chief and sign for 6 years 50.6 million, 22 guaranteed, same Flowers got. Some may think that is too much for one position, but if you have to overpay, it should be at QB, CB, and pass rushers. Hunt would have to shell out 15 million in 2012; 11 for a signing bonus and a 4 million base.

Dwayne Bowe

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I think Bowe is perfect for the franchise tag. It will give us options. We can trade him for two 2nd rounders, give him an extension in August, or have him play under the tag. My vote is for the latter, considering Bowe has issues with motivation. We can get a lot of production out of him playing for a contract. Last year Vincent Jackson played under the tag for 11.5 million. Lets assume it goes up to 12 million.

Le'Ron McClain

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I think Pioli wanted to get to know McClain better before he gave him an extension. Fullbacks are seen as a luxury, but he will be a necessity on 3rd and short, and 4th and short. If we get an OC who uses him that is. Leach got 3 years 11 million in Baltimore and is considered the best FB in he league. We should be able to sign him for 3 years, 9 million. It would cost 5 million in 2012, 3 million bonus and 2 in base.

Amon Gordan

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This should be a cheap re-signing. Gordan provides good depth on the defensive line. 1 year, 1.1 million.

Travis Daniels

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Another cheap re-signing. Daniels is good depth. 1 year, 900,000.

RECAP: so far we have shelled out 34 million on our own players. That means we only have 25.4 million left to actually improve the football team, besides the impact from the draft. So if we want a big name there is only room for one. This will help me segue into disproving the other myth: that Scott Pioli is married to Matt Cassel and won't make a splash at QB.

I don't understand why people think Pioli is blind to what is obvious, that Cassel has limitations that will limit the potential of a team. People often come up with the narrative that he wouldn't do it because of his ego, that he doesn't want to admit to a mistake. First, Cassel wasn't a mistake. We were desperate for a QB and the options in the draft were very risky. Cassel helped hold the fort, won the division, and is a class act. Pioli intentionally structured the contract so he could get out of it in three years. Where do people get the notion they are married? Pioli isn't stupid, he knows the importance of the QB position. The question is, will there be an opportunity to upgrade and one in which will entice Pioli. The answer is yes...

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Peyton Manning

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I know I just opened up a new can of worms, but lets look at the logic and address the obvious concerns and obstacles before we jump to conclusions. The first obstacle is Manning's availability. Everyone knows this, but if the Colts owner keeps Manning and Luck it will cost him 50 million dollars for the QB position. I don't care what people say, he isn't going to pay that. That is what the Yankees spend on starting pitching, and at least all of them contribute, whereas Luck will be on the bench. Luck is ready to start now, the Colts are in rebuilding mode, Manning isn't the only one getting long in the tooth. His contract makes him virtually impossible to trade, they will have no option but to release him. I'm sure it will be mutual, they will do it in a classy way, maybe even with a press conference for Manning to say thanks and good bye. 49ers did it with Montana, Green Bay with Favre, it happens.

Now we have to address obstacle two: his health. What good is he if he is damaged goods. I don't think there is any question he will have the physical capability to play, but will his neck be too vulnerable? I'm not sure about this part, I'm not a doctor, but I'm optimistic. Colon, the Yankees pitcher, had the same experimental stem cell surgery and said it was like the fountain of youth. Here is an article on his progress.

The last obstacle is him actually signing with us. We would be the favorites out of all the suitors. We have the weapons, the money, and the perfect coach for Manning, a mild mannered defensive genius. His wife DEMANDS privacy, they just had twins, I think they would prefer to stay in the mid west, take that south beach! Our division is weak, I don't think he wants to play against his brother in the NFC east. The Jets are like us in terms of appealing talent, but they are actually married to Sanchez and its a circus in NY right now, plus they don't have the cap space. And although insignificant, there would be a cool narrative with the parallel drawn between Manning and Montana.

And the beauty of all of this is that its still in Hunt's budget. We could probably get Manning for 2 years, 34 million. It would cost us 16 million signing bonus and a 6 million base for 22 million in 2012. Now if we got Manning Cassel would have to be traded because it would be awkward and we need more money for veteran free agents. I think he is worth a 4th and makes a lot of sense in Seattle. That takes money off the books and gives us about 8.7 million left for our budget. Assuming 8 of the 9 draft picks make the team the Chiefs would still need 4 more players, and they would have to come cheap. Here are some guys that make sense:

Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis

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I think the law firm would be a good in between the tackles compliment to Charles. We could probably get him cheap, as the Patriots don't need him after drafting two RBs last draft and the RB market will be saturated. Something like 4 years, 9 million and only costing us 3 million for 2012.

Dan Connolly

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You probably have't heard his name much with the exception of his infamous kick return, but he is a solid starting interior lineman who can play all 3 interior line positions. I think he should take Lilja's place at LG. He is a lot bigger than Lija so he had that going for him. I'd say we can get him for 3 years 7.5 million, costing us 3 million in 2012.

Braylon Edwards

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I think this would be a good value sign. A knee injury kept him from producing in San Francisco this past year. I think he could at least bounce back to provide us with good production as a 4th WR. He really won't have that many options and would probably like to play for Crennel again. I like the 4th WR to be a down field threat, the defense can be lulled to sleep, especially with our core. 1 year, 2 million.

Chad Henne

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We only have 700,000 left in the budget so we are forced to sign a shitty player. I think Daboll, the current Dolphins OC, would be a good fit for KC. I imagine there will be staff turnover once the new HC is hired. So thats why I would predict Henne to KC since he would be familiar with the system. I think Stanzi wins the backup job though and will benefit greatly studying behind Manning. And at least Henne is better than Palko. 1 year, 700,000.

And there you have it. We didn't go over budget, retained all of our good talent, with maybe the exception of Gilberry, and got a franchise QB. The rest of the holes will need to be filled on draft day, but I think we are in great position to fill those needs. We might as well take this hypothetical offseason all the way, so here is an an arbitrary, but realistic mock draft using the National Football Post to project players talents and where they will go in the draft. Click on their name to read the scouting report.

1. David DeCastro (T/G, Stanford)

2. Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)

3. Zebrie Sanders (OT, Florida St)

4a. Aaron Henry (FS, Wisconsin)

4b. Winston Guy Jr. (SS, Kentucky)

5. Rhett Ellison (TE, USC)

6. Matt Conrath (DE, Virginia)

7a. Bobby Rainey (RB, Western Kentucky)

7b. David Snow (C, Texas) - practice squad

Let me conclude by dispelling the last myth: that Pioli and Hunt don't care about winning and are too concerned with other things. People point to Hunt's "cheapness", but the fact of the matter is we spend around league average. People point to the latest Star article to prove that Pioli spends his time micro-managing the entire organization, obsessing over minutia like candy wrappers and pens. Read the book War Room, it goes into detail why Pioli had to be a prick. There were a lot of people who weren't focused, who didn't give a shit about winning, and it was a deeply entrenched culture because of Peterson's long tenure. The one thing that was conveyed in the book, is that Pioli doesn't give a shit about PR, and that obviously shows. He doesn't care about the entertainment aspect of the game, he wants the glory. And we are so close to that glory, don't think otherwise Chiefs fans. Just look at the roster below and tell me that isn't championship caliber, at least on paper.

OFFENSE

WR: Baldwin, Edwards

LT: Albert, Sanders

LG: Connolly, Harris

C: Hudson, Connolly

RG: Asamoah, Harris

RT: DeCastro, Mims

TE: Moeaki, Allen, Ellison

SR: Breaston, McCluster

WR: Bowe, Copper

QB: Manning, Stanzi, Henne

RB: Charles, Green-Ellis, McCluster, Rainey

FB: McClain

DEFENSE

RDE: Bailey, Bair, Conrath

NT: Dorsey*, Powe

LDE: Jackson, Gordan

WOLB: Hali, Sheffield, Miller

WILB: DJ, Williams, Greenwood

SILB: Belcher, Siler

SOLB: Houston, Studebaker

CB: Carr, Brown, Daniels

CB: Flowers, Arenas

SS: Berry, Guy Jr.

FS: Lewis, Henry

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Succop

P: Colquitt

LS: Gafford

R: Arenas, McCluster

*Dorsey would only have to gain 12 pounds in the offseason to have the same measurables as Kelly Gregg. A 5 tech and a zero tech have the same two gap responsibilities, its just a different match up. Dorsey's skills translate well to NT as he is our best run defender. Bailey adds a pass rush at RDE that we need bad, especially if an opponent throws on 1st down.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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