The Opening Line

Will this man ultimately set the final line this week?(Photo by Scott Boehm/Getty Images)

Hello and welcome to this year's weekly edition of The Opening Line. Each Monday, I will bring you up to speed on the opening line out of Vegas for the Kansas City Chiefs upcoming game. Our first edition is obviously a bit different, since the line has been out for over a month now. Fear not though, as the recent developments involving Matt Cassel have certainly made this line very active in Las Vegas and offshore.

 

Our Week 1 opening line out of Vegas was Kansas City -7 (even) and the total was set at 43 (-110).

Fast forward to today and we have some interesting developments:

Currently, (12:30 Arrowhead Time) the Las Vegas Hilton lists the game at 6.5 and 40.5 and this is where it has been for some time now. They are standing pat despite the news out of our local media that Matt Cassel's playing status may be in doubt for Sunday. Caesar's (who is partnered with Harrah's and the Rio) has pulled the game off the board for now due to the uncertainty.

What's even more interesting is that for the online capper, some sites have already made some Palko movement as bettors are either laying big bucks already on the Bills or the sites are fearing a big hit if they leave it at 6 or more. The Greek Sportsbook has lowered the line to KC -4 and the total is at 39.5. (The line here has steadily moved down over the last hour). Others such as Pinnacle, SBG Global, and 5 Dimes also have it in the 4 to 5 range. If you are a hardcore capper and you have multiple accounts, you could hit the chance to middle the game right now as places like Sportsbetting and Sports Interaction still have it in the 6.5 to 7 range.

What does it all mean? As of right now, very little as long as Vegas stands pat in my opinion. If the Vegas lines begin to plummet then it may be that the word is out on that Cassel is injured more than we even found out yesterday.

With that said, let's treat this like a normal week and look at the past trends in this Week 1 matchup, most of which lean towards Buffalo and the Under:

  • Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as road underdog of between 3.5 and 7.5
  • Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games where the total is between 38.5 and 42.5
  • KC is conversely 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games where the total is between 38.5 and 42.5
  • KC is 0-2 ATS the last two seasons and 13-28 ATS since 1993 against AFC East opponents
  • Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. the AFC West
  • The UNDER has hit in 9 of the last 11 opening day games for Buffalo
  • The UNDER has hit in 17 of the last 18 home openers for the Chiefs

Take these trends with a grain of salt, but I will provide the most successful ones I can find on a weekly basis. Seeing as though this line will move a lot during the week I will be back to update you on it, and Sunday morning I will give you the final analysis on the line.

Good luck and Happy Labor Day to the Arrowhead Pride community!

UPDATE!!!  LAS VEGAS HILTON HAS MOVED THE LINE TO 3.5 AND 38.5 (12:49 ARROWHEAD)

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