Week 2 odds can be found here.
As stated in last week's edition, this is not about wanting the Chiefs to lose. This is an honest appraisal of the 32 teams in the NFL and their odds on selecting Andrew Luck number one overall or of having the number 1 pick in next year's NFL draft. This is a simple matter of looking at the product on the field and projecting that same play against the team's remaining schedule. When/if the Chiefs play on the field take them out of the running for this dubious award, the weekly updates will stop. Till then, take it for what it's worth.
NOTE: 4 wins will be deemed to many. Teams that are 4-x will not receive odds
The Front Runners
KC- 5/1 (0-3): The defense showed vast improvement over week 1 and 2. The offense actually managed to regress somehow. The difficulty of their schedule keeps them the odds on favorite for the second week in a row. Last week's odds: 5/1-no change
Indy- 5/2 (0-3): Much like KC, Indy actually played a superior team with heart and took them to the wire. Painter came in for the injured Kerry Collins and looked horrible for a bit and respectable for a bit. With Irsay reporting that Manning is done for the season the Colts are the big movers upwards (or down if you'd rather) in the reverse power rankings. Last week's odds: 10/1-up three positions from the 5th most likely team to the second
Den- 6/1 (1-2): Denver managed to lose to a Titans team that lost Kenny Britt early in the game and couldn't get Chris Johnson going. The Broncos actually had the lead with 4:24 left in the 4th. As I told J-man last week, never lose faith in the ability of the Broncos to suck. Last week's odds: 6/1-no change
StL- 7/1 (0-3): Last week St Louis wasn't in our front runners because we limited the "top" teams to those in the hunt for Luck. The Rams would most likely not draft the Stanford phenom, but if they get the 1st pick the line of suitors would be long. The Julio Jones trade from 2011 would probably be the starting spot for negotiations. Playing in the NFC West will help this Rams team win some games, but at 0-3, you get on this list. Last week's odds: no line
Miami- 8/1 (0-3): Last week's loss against Cleveland was the kind that deflates a team and could cause a team to start to under-perform. This year's draft pick Daniel Thomas started to run the rock effectively and the passing game was good enough to win. I still believe they have more weapons than any of the teams ahead of them on this list, but 0-3 is 0-3. You get a bump. Last week's odds: 12/1-remains 5th most likely on the list
Minn- 9/1 (0-3): This is a hard team to figure out. They took Detriot and Tampa to the wire and managed to blow it. They held the vaunted Detroit defense to a stand still till Pettigrew, Megatron and Stafford went nuts. They have talent, especially on the defensive side. Next week's game between KC and Minny will help to define both teams, and who will be king of these odds. It is unclear if Minny would actually draft Luck with Ponder sitting in the background, but either way they are an 0-3 team in the running for the top selection in 2012. Last week's odds: no line
SEA- 10/1 (1-2): Rice comes back and they play at home. That always helps. Fully expect the Seahawks to be horrendous on the road, but feast on weak NFC West teams when they come to Seattle. Last week's odds: 5/2- dropped from 2nd to 6
Teams moving out of the front runner list due to wins or the suckatude of others: San Fran, Cleveland, Washington
The rest of the league after the jump
Teams who showed life/enough football like substance to not be considered a favorite at this time. No current odds. No particular order
SF (2-1): They may run away with the NFC West, though they would probably jump on Luck like a fat girl on a bunt cake if given the chance. And when I say "run away" remember that this is relative.
ARI (1-2): Maybe I should just put odds on the NFC West...Kolb and Fitzgerald should keep this from happening
Jax (1-2): Rookie QB, WR issues, bad defense. They have all the lack of pieces that you like to see in a first pick overall, but they still play Indy twice and have MJD. Should be enough to keep them in the late top 10
Car (1-2): Well, they beat Jax, but that defense is banged up worse than KC's. They are on the hairy edge of jumping into the first group. But Cam has me believing they will win just enough games...
Cincy (1-2): Dalton to Green is going to be fierce for years to come. But a win puts you in this group unless you play in Seattle.
Cle (2-1): They sure are spunky. Don't know if they belong here, but a decade of Browns football justifies it.
Chi/Atl/Phi (1-2): None of these teams belong here, but you are what your record is. 1-2 gets you an honorable mention. If I had to guess which team is most likely to hang around here, it would be Chicago. Dallas could land here with a loss tonight as well.
Wash (2-0): Make it 3-0 and I'll eat crow, but I want to see it.
Teams who would have to totally fall apart in the most spectacular way EVER to reach any higher on this list, no particular order:
BUF (3-0) Look for Jesus coming from the sky. This may be the sign of the Apocolypse (Hark, and the angel broke the 6th seal, and the great cow and lion came from beneath the earth to claim dominion over the land)
NE (2-1) HOW BOUT THEM BILLS!!!!
Oak (2-1) Sums of beaches
SD (2-1) Middle finger to you sir