Week 2 Andrew Luck sweepstake odds
by mushin on Sep 19, 2011 11:34 AM CDT
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PrintThis is not about piling on, or about jumping off a cliff. This is an honest appraisal of the 32 teams in the NFL and their odds on selecting Andrew Luck number one overall. I am not advocating for the Chiefs to lose in any way shape or form. This is a simple matter of looking at the product on the field and projecting that same play against the team's remaining schedule. Take it for what it's worth.
The Front Runners
KC- 5/1: The injuries, schedule and horrendous QB play all factor into this. Don’t want to see them lose and am not rooting for it, but this is honestly how I see it.
SEA- 5/2: They still have 8 home games and get to play the NFC West. the home field advantage in Seattle should produce several wins they wouldn't produce on the road. See last year's playoffs
Den- 6/1: Denver’s schedule is marginally easier than KC’s.The head to head matchups between KC and Denver may change these odds. Tim Tebow may also have something to say about this.
Indy- 10/1: If Indy has even an inkling of a thought that Manning’s career is done, they become the odds on favorite at 2/1. But you can't sit a number 1 pick for three years to ride behind arguably the greatest QB in NFL history
Miami- 12/1: The Dolophins have played back to back games against teams that have Super Bowl asperations, and they've been semi-competitive doing it. You can't say the same for the teams ahead of them on this list. Miami also plays @KC and has Denver at home.
San Fran- 15/1: The 49ers just drafted Kaepernick in the 2nd at 36. The Niners actually traded up to get him. The Harbaugh factor has to be accounted for, but unless San Fran just wants to throw away a top pick from their 2010 draft, they won't go here.
Cle- 15/2: Cleavland has to be on this list if only because they have enough picks to do whatever they want in the 2012 draft thanks to the Falcons. All comes down to how Holmgren feels about McCoy
Wash- 25/1: Their QB position would merit the pick, but the rest of the team has looked more than equal to taking them out of the equation.
The rest of the league after the jump
Unlikely teams who would need a very specific set of circumstances to be considered a factor (No odds currently posted)
Oak- Oakland would be a surprise, but never put anything past Crazy Al. The Raiders just spent a 3rd round pick on Pryor. They don’t have a 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 2012 unless they get compensatory picks for their multiple FA losses
NYG: If the Giants totally fall apart and Coughlin were to lose his job, a new coach might come in and want to start fresh. Very doubtful though.
Det: Stafford is a stud, and they don't look like they could get anywhere near the top of the draft after yesterday, but if Stafford gets injured again they will be in the market.
Dal: Tony Romo is a love em or hate em kind of guy. If Jerry Jones starts to hate him all bets are off.
Chi: Chicago's position mirrors both Dallas and the Giants. A horrible season could put Lovie Smith out of a job and Jay Cutler is a lightning rod. Unlikely though if for no other reason that Julius Peppers.
Teams that might draft high, but whose current QB situation don't merit the pick of Luck:
Car: Newton
Minn: Ponder
Ari: Kolb
StL: Bradford
Buf: Surprisingly Fitzpatrick. If the Bills playing like they have the last two weeks they'll be bumped down to the next group of teams
Cincy: Dalton
Tenn: Locker
Jax: Gabbert
Teams that would likely need to mortgage the rest of the team to move up high enough in the draft to get in the "race" or have a QB situation that is too stable to justify the pick.
Philly: Vick
GB- Rogers
NO: Brees
Atl: Ryan
TB: Freeman
NE: Brady
Pitt: Rothlesberger
Balt: Flacco
Hou: Schuab
SD: Rivers
NYJ: Sanchez
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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STL is the only team that wouldn't take Luck.
Everyone else on your list would take luck at 1 in my opinion. Carolina might pass due to Cam but I could see them take Luck and try to move Newton.
No way does Carolina take a 2nd QB at number 1
Especially when their new rookie QB just took the super bowl champs to the wire and shattered rookie records doing so.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
by mushin on Sep 19, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
50/50 as of today
But that coin flip in late march to decide who picks higher between KC and Seattle will be franchise shattering.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
Go through the schedules and tell me how the Chiefs win more games than Seattle?
The views expressed by craig in calgary do not necessarily represent the views of all Canadians.
Only defense I have is that KC is a better team on paper
That’s the theory anyway.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
by mushin on Sep 19, 2011 12:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If by paper you mean the letterhead the IR list is printed on you are right.
The views expressed by craig in calgary do not necessarily represent the views of all Canadians.
How do you figure?
We lost our two best players for the year. On paper we don’t look so good anymore.
Have you seen the Seahawks roster
KC still has the leading sack artist from the AFC last year, a pro-bowl WR. Two better than average CB’s, and enough of a running game to give a team fits.
Seatlle has…well there’s that guy…oh yeah, they have the 12th man. I’ll give them that. Of course if they keep playing like this the only way you’ll be able to tell Arrowhead from whatever Seattle calls their stadium is the color of all the empty seats.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
SEA also plays in the NFC West... They don't get a team like SD and OAK twice.
They could easily win every game in their division.
And our above average CBs gave up at least 2 TDs yesterday, and had multiple penalties.
And Tamba may be hurt.
You are actually preaching to the choir, I do have KC with the best odds of picking #1
Though I still claim that KC has more talent, but the schedule they face will be brutal. But never underestimate Seattle’s ability to suck ass. God I miss having those guys in our division.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
True that.
Not trying to take anything away from KC and their talent level. We still have Bowe, DJ, the Brandons and (hopefully) Hali. And we still don’t know what we really have in Baldwin and Houston.
But the schedule is hard and our QB is apparently falling apart. KC is easily the front runner for the Luck Sweepstakes at this point.
i bank on the chiefs having the best odds, just for the sheer fact that they cant even score, let alone stop teams from scoring, if we had to play any of the 0-2 teams right now, we would lose hands down.
all the 0-2 teams have been able to score, wait till we play against Colts and will see how badly they do. were averaging like 5 points a game and allowing 30 give or take since the end of 2011 season. only 1 team was shut out so far and that was seahawks, even still vs SF they managed 19 points i believe.
how is that we haven’t managed more than a TD you would think by fluke alone a INT return, kick off return, a long bomb/blown coverage that we would have scored more. but nope. so chiefs bound for #1 pick till proven that they can atleast score some points.
Actually you can
But you can’t sit a number 1 pick for three years to ride behind arguably the greatest QB in NFL history
Although I would feel bad for Manning, he needs a legit LT more then anything right now.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
Just can't see it.
Drafting the kid out of Boise in the early 2nd makes a ton of sense. However, drafting a guy number one to be a back up while you’re already paying the largest QB contract in the NFL does not make sense. Especially when you factor in how bad the rest of the team looks.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
Kellen Moore? in the 2nd?
Please tell me you jest sir.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
How bout replace Kellen Moore with "Second tier QB that is drafted in late 1st, early 2nd"
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
Manning has 3 years left in him if that
Who knows if he’ll ever play again? I mean its that serious.
They need someone way more legit back there then Kerry Collins or Kellen Moore, and Luck learning from arguably the best to ever do it can only help him.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
$30 mil in guarnatees is a lot to pay a backup
Especially when you are already paying the largest contract in the NFL for a guy at the same position.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
So what?
One bad hit and Manning could end up being paralyzed.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a bad argument
You could make the same argument for every player in the NFL. You either trust to have Manning on the field or you don’t. You can’t worry about injury.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
But Manning actually has a serious neck injury that would make that argument valid
You can’t say that about other players in the NFL.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
And I don't know if you can trust Manning on the field anymore
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
kellen moore
1kellen moore is to small and weak armed to be an elite qb hes another colt brennen 2 with the new cba the num 1 pick isnt the financial death sentance it once was 3 if you can draft luck you do it! chiefs need that pick outright cause everyone else wants it unless the chiefs want to trade valuable picks they need they need to have complete custody of it
by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Sep 20, 2011 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
regarding The College QB Who Shall Not Be Named: who cares
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Well put
Just a mental exercise in trying to see hope in the long term. Personally, I believe that KC is going to draft in the top 10 and grab Luck, Landry or Barkley. And after a loss like yesterday the brightest hope on the horizon is next year’s draft. I’m all about the hope.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
Last year weren't you one to constantly berate Cassel and argue that an elite QB is standard if you want a SB trophy?
What’s going on? Do you just like being the minority on AP? Now most of AP has turned on Cassel and you’re backing him? What gives?
Obviously you do, to comment on it every thread
I’m not advocating full out MOCKDRAFTEGEDDON but this season is an unmitigated disaster and the only thing that keeps me sane is knowing one of the best QB prospects in years has a realistic chance to be a Chief.
by craig in calgary on Sep 19, 2011 1:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think the idea of losing on purpose is ridiculous, but if Luck is on the board when the Chiefs walk up to the podium, they better call his name.
The views expressed by craig in calgary do not necessarily represent the views of all Canadians.
Who said anything about losing on purpose
Actually, I’m not sure how they could be much worse. They keep this up and this may be the first year the competition committee considers the mercy rule.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
If we dont do anything to replace Cassel
Then I’d say were pretty much losing on purpose. Cuz nobody getting paid to manage and coach in the NFL is that fuckin stupid.
You say that till you throw a rookie QB with no running game to the wolves
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
You say that till Matt Cassel continues too look horrific
Not trying something else to win games is giving up on the season.
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
He might end up being our QB
Me and Matt Cassel just - you up, dog!
by ChiefWarPaint on Sep 19, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I know I Luck is supposed to be a "Great Kid"
But even if we did land with the first, I could easily see him pulling an Elway or Manning and forcing a trade to not come here… I don’t know why but it just seems like KC will never be fortunate enough to groom a top tier QB
If no Luck, see Landry
At that point the Governor’s bowl would turn from Red & Gold against Blue & Gold to a sea of maroon. Sickening really. :)
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
by mushin on Sep 19, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
are you kidding?
Look at our team and potential. If i was a college QB coming out, I would absolutely love to play for the Chiefs. We have more talent than at least half of the NFL, and Luck would take us to at least top 10.
I don't see that happening...
We have two 1st round wideouts, an up and coming TE, a QBs best friend: a dominant running game, and an offensive line that isn’t inept of talent, and that we could conceivably fix in one offseason. I guess the only reason he wouldn’t do it is that he wouldn’t want to live in KC, but I don’t think he has that type of personality.
As bad as we have looked
I still think we have too much talent to be drafting first. It may be the best thing to happen to us if we did though. All our studs come back next year (hopefully they don’t lose step) and with a qb who is a playmaker. I know he will be a rookie and would make mistakes but our offense totally opens up with a playmaker at qb. I still just don’t see it happening though. That’s just my two cents.
WE let the dogs out. Emphasis on 'WE'
by KC_Chong on Sep 19, 2011 12:22 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I agree that the team is talented, but in the wrong areas to withstand the injuries they have had
Charles was KC’s Aaron Rogers/Manning/Brady etc… The offense will have it’s moments, but I don’t think it can recover.
Hali is a wreaking ball, but Berry was the glue that made it all stick together. The corners are great, but if the middle of the field is an open invitation to being thrown at why test them?
Moeaki was the only player that made teams look away from Bowe. Add in how Cassel has looked and the loss of Charles and it is hard to see them consistently moving the ball at all.
I know that I’m looking at the schedule the day after a historic melt down (part II, this time it’s personal) but look at this schedule and you tell me where KC manages to get 4 wins if they continue to play like they did yesterday, especially when Jones and McCluster start to wear down from the abuse later in the season.
@SD
Minn (win, maybe)
@Indy (win)
@Oak
SD
Miami (win, maybe)
Den (win)
@NE
Pitt
@Chi
@NYJ
GB
Oak (win, maybe)
@Den
They might sneak up and bite a few folks, but they’ll get bit in return. With the exception of Indy there is not one easy win on that schedule. Denver is probably the 2nd weakest opponent, but they are a division rival. Toss up.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
I will be shocked if they win 4 games.
The views expressed by craig in calgary do not necessarily represent the views of all Canadians.
I think you are being generous...
If we play like we have been I could easily see us being 0-8 headed home to Denver. Kerry Collins hasn’t been good but he will have had more time in the system by then…time will tell…
I have to believe they can beat Indy and Minnesota
If McNabb can’t throw the ball to the TE, the center of the secondary can’t get creamed. They do have to tackle AP though…shit…
I actually have tickets to that game. The tailgate will involve a LOT of beer.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
You saw what Fred Jackson did to us right?
I don’t think Adrian Peterson will have much trouble.
At this point the only team I think we might have a real shot at beating is Indy.
I also saw what Fred Jackson did to Oakland
Jackson is better than you think, but I agree. AP will most likely run wild.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
If they play like they have been, they will be 0-16
But I can’t honestly see a way that they could possibly play THAT bad all year. I hope not anyway.
WE let the dogs out. Emphasis on 'WE'
I just want to win one game
I hope we can beat the Vikings or the Colts. I don’t want to go 0-16. I hope our bad luck will help us get Luck at QB. Which make us have good Luck for the future!
if we just win one game
..may it be against the raiders.
and the Chiefs put the HAMMER DOWN!!!!
by reedeasy on Sep 19, 2011 1:13 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Would rather go into San Diego and stomp a mudhole in their ass at their home
You think Haley is on the hot seat? See what that would do to the San Diego staff’s posterior temperature.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
personal reasons
Raider fans in my midst that need to be knocked off their pedestal.
and the Chiefs put the HAMMER DOWN!!!!
by reedeasy on Sep 19, 2011 1:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I want a franchise QB.
With 3 of our best players already out for the season, the part of me that says that we won’t escape best-case mediocrity until we find an elite quarterback is taking over.
KC or Indy
will get luck but if i was Luck if Indy got the num 1 pick i wouild stay in school because i wouild not want to be in manning way Den is the 3rd choice i think with MIA SEA has no shot because of their div
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
by j-man on Sep 19, 2011 5:45 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Hey Jman- don't stop believing in the power
Of the broncos to suck :)
You gotta keep the faith.
Haley's injury deal with the devil from 2010 came due
by mushin on Sep 19, 2011 6:39 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
rofl
if we can lose to TENN 2-6 or 1-7 couild happen when we play @KC it might come down to week 17 but INDY is our way we have to band toether and become part Colts fans rofl
okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider
We will see if we even draft that low.
Funniest thing ever said by an opposing fan today saying the Chiefs will go 0-16 after their lose to the Lions! It's funny because the Chiefs aren't lucky enough to get Andrew Luck!
I mean high. =/
Funniest thing ever said by an opposing fan today saying the Chiefs will go 0-16 after their lose to the Lions! It's funny because the Chiefs aren't lucky enough to get Andrew Luck!
by ChiefsFan90s on Sep 19, 2011 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Tim Tebow
anychance that the fiasco going on in denver would lead to them trading Tim Tebow to KC as a start for the rest of the season after a big loss at SD?
Please give yourself a labotomy for even thinking such a thing :)
Rooting for the 2011 KC team to be all it can be...then draft a franchise QB with the #1 pick next year.
Andrew Luck 100% lock.
Andrew Luck is garanteed, look at the obvious
Chiefs outscored 89 – 10 with a 0-2 record and 3 key injuries, so what have the chiefs done to improve this. absolutely nothing, shows me that chiefs are content with losing and not wiling to spend that 30 million cap space to dip into the free agent market to beef up thier team. this is what the Chiefs have done to build thier roster after week 2
Tony Moeaki = replaced by Becht who was previously “cut” by the Chiefs he wasn’t even good enough to make it as a back up role for Chiefs.
Eric Berry = replaced by Jon McGraw who also was previously “cut” by the Chiefs and once again he was not good enough to make it as a backup role on the roster
Jamaal Charles = replaced by Mike Cox, a full back? who was also “cut” by the Chiefs, tells me a few things 1/ LeRon McClain will be the feature back no reason the teams needs two full backs at this time. 2/ Haley does not trust Jones or Dexter to be the two backs to lead the team
only good side i can see to Cox is the having both him and McClain in the back field running pass protection in a 3 wide set with hopeful return of Baldwin along side Bowe and Breaston and moving away from the run first offense
either way bring back 3 cut players vs dipping into free agency for talent or making trades tells me the Chiefs are not really trying and Luck is 100% on thier agenda
I disagree that they aren't trying
I think they are definitely trying. Nobody wants to look that bad. People are going to be fired. Players are going to be cut and never play another down in the NFL. It’s not a matter of trying. This is a matter of talent at key positions and inevitability.
Rooting for the 2011 KC team to be all it can be...then draft a franchise QB with the #1 pick next year.
We need to activate Stanzi
Im not calling for him to start (yet) But we need to see what we already have this year. I was impressed with his footwork and arm in the preseason and he has the smarts. I am not convinced that Gabbert and Dalton were more NFL ready than him and they are starting. In Dalton’s case he is looking pretty good so far.
We know what we have in Cassel and Palko so let’s at least let the kid suit up.
I don't believe we should raise our hopes on Luck
We all thought that we’d be a good team this year and look at what happened? If we hold out for Luck then we’re just going to be disappointed again.
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