This is not about piling on, or about jumping off a cliff. This is an honest appraisal of the 32 teams in the NFL and their odds on selecting Andrew Luck number one overall. I am not advocating for the Chiefs to lose in any way shape or form. This is a simple matter of looking at the product on the field and projecting that same play against the team's remaining schedule. Take it for what it's worth.
The Front Runners
KC- 5/1: The injuries, schedule and horrendous QB play all factor into this. Don’t want to see them lose and am not rooting for it, but this is honestly how I see it.
SEA- 5/2: They still have 8 home games and get to play the NFC West. the home field advantage in Seattle should produce several wins they wouldn't produce on the road. See last year's playoffs
Den- 6/1: Denver’s schedule is marginally easier than KC’s.The head to head matchups between KC and Denver may change these odds. Tim Tebow may also have something to say about this.
Indy- 10/1: If Indy has even an inkling of a thought that Manning’s career is done, they become the odds on favorite at 2/1. But you can't sit a number 1 pick for three years to ride behind arguably the greatest QB in NFL history
Miami- 12/1: The Dolophins have played back to back games against teams that have Super Bowl asperations, and they've been semi-competitive doing it. You can't say the same for the teams ahead of them on this list. Miami also plays @KC and has Denver at home.
San Fran- 15/1: The 49ers just drafted Kaepernick in the 2nd at 36. The Niners actually traded up to get him. The Harbaugh factor has to be accounted for, but unless San Fran just wants to throw away a top pick from their 2010 draft, they won't go here.
Cle- 15/2: Cleavland has to be on this list if only because they have enough picks to do whatever they want in the 2012 draft thanks to the Falcons. All comes down to how Holmgren feels about McCoy
Wash- 25/1: Their QB position would merit the pick, but the rest of the team has looked more than equal to taking them out of the equation.
The rest of the league after the jump
Unlikely teams who would need a very specific set of circumstances to be considered a factor (No odds currently posted)
Oak- Oakland would be a surprise, but never put anything past Crazy Al. The Raiders just spent a 3rd round pick on Pryor. They don’t have a 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 2012 unless they get compensatory picks for their multiple FA losses
NYG: If the Giants totally fall apart and Coughlin were to lose his job, a new coach might come in and want to start fresh. Very doubtful though.
Det: Stafford is a stud, and they don't look like they could get anywhere near the top of the draft after yesterday, but if Stafford gets injured again they will be in the market.
Dal: Tony Romo is a love em or hate em kind of guy. If Jerry Jones starts to hate him all bets are off.
Chi: Chicago's position mirrors both Dallas and the Giants. A horrible season could put Lovie Smith out of a job and Jay Cutler is a lightning rod. Unlikely though if for no other reason that Julius Peppers.
Teams that might draft high, but whose current QB situation don't merit the pick of Luck:
Buf: Surprisingly Fitzpatrick. If the Bills playing like they have the last two weeks they'll be bumped down to the next group of teams
Teams that would likely need to mortgage the rest of the team to move up high enough in the draft to get in the "race" or have a QB situation that is too stable to justify the pick.